Hessenpark News: Official - No R10: no FF M9 (yet)

[mooky]

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Civility

[Jamie Roberts]

So as someone who owns both R/9DMR and M3/6/8 systems I have to tell you I'm not heartened by the news on either front.

 

I really did want a promise of an optical VF "S10" that would take my R lenses as well as new S lenses.

 

I really did want the ff non-IR filtered ISO 6400-capable M9 to be announced.

 

But there's nothing wrong with having a flagship technology base. Carsten is right too: if the S2 is technically successful there's no reason a cheaper S3 or S10 couldn't be made later.

 

And maybe (maybe?) the M9 is closer than we all think and Leica is beginning to "undercommit and overdeliver" instead of the other way round (how's that for boundless optimism, eh?)

 

And for what it's worth--there isn't a $600 camera out there that does what a 35 or 50 Lux does on either R or M system--digital or film, let alone the 80 R lux or 24 M lux.

 

I just hope Leica delivers something excellent soon (I guess that will be the S2).

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[jaapv]

I do find this methodology of informing their client base quite extraordinary. It is like governments drip feeding us information by inspired "leaks" and we know how popular most European Governments are with their voters at present, from the percentage turn out at the recent EU elections.

 

If this information is all true and complete, I worry for Leica's future. I would have thought an M8-3 with a lower noise 14 to 16 MP sensor but still 1.3X crop was a much higher priority and a much easier task than any other possibility out there. Of course, if Kodak is unwilling or unable to produce such a sensor, they are are pretty much stuck, as I guess it would be too difficult to switch sensor manufacturer.

 

Wilson

Actually Stefan said they were sticking to Kodak, but should the need ever arise, Dalsa would be an alternative.

[marknorton]

However much Leica like to think that their R close-out solution will be "good", "adequate", "fit for purpose" and will promote it that way, ultimately, the work and cost of making it happen will only be justified if there is widespread acceptance among the R community. Even allowing for the inevitable negative reaction to there being no R10, there doesn't seem to be much appetite here for such a camera.

 

I think it's vital that Leica enlist the help of the most experienced R users (not me, BTW), sign them up to an NDA and make full disclosure about their plans to see if this is going to fly. Otherwise, we'll simply be looking at another Digilux 3 which is not good for anyone.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Leica securing spares and maintenance for the R8/R9 and things like batteries and spare parts for the DMR to stretch the life of these cameras rather than invest millions in something new. The S2 and the M (which hopefully will benefit from the spin off) have to be the priorities.

[jaapv]

Leica is definitely not going to build this "solution" themselves.

[jaapv]

However much Leica like to think that their R close-out solution will be "good", "adequate", "fit for purpose" and will promote it that way, ultimately, the work and cost of making it happen will only be justified if there is widespread acceptance among the R community. Even allowing for the inevitable negative reaction to there being no R10, there doesn't seem to be much appetite here for such a camera.

 

I think it's vital that Leica enlist the help of the most experienced R users (not me, BTW), sign them up to an NDA and make full disclosure about their plans to see if this is going to fly. Otherwise, we'll simply be looking at another Digilux 3 which is not good for anyone.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Leica securing spares and maintenance for the R8/R9 and things like batteries and spare parts for the DMR to stretch the life of these cameras rather than invest millions in something new. The S2 and the M (which hopefully will benefit from the spin off) have to be the priorities.

 

Dr. Kaufmann eached an agreement to to break the deadlock over the servicing with the Danes only at the end of last week. That will enable Leica to support the DMR fully for a decent number of years at least, and they will keep on supporting as far as they can as long as spare/scavenged parts hol out after that.

Have no illusion, that is the fate of digital cameras. Ten years service after production end of the M8 is the very most we can expect too.

[marknorton]

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Leica is definitely not going to build this "solution" themselves.

 

Yes, if Leica were to develop this solution themselves, they might as well just do the S10. Since there will be partner, the question is who? Could be Panasonic - I had not heard about this €20m funding - Carsten thinks so, Michael does not. Who else? Jenoptik? One of the other majors?

[jaapv]

The only reasonable alternative would maybe be Pentax. But another thought - what will happen when Zeiss dies? That will open up the Sony connection.

[carstenw]

I doubt that Zeiss would die. They are quite diversified. It is conceivable that they would shut down their 35mm photography division, but given that Cosina handles manufacturing, I can't see why they would need to. Who owns Cosina, and how stable is that side of things?

[jaapv]

400 people made redundant, virtually no orders, camera sales 0, ZM lenses marginal, Sony not salling as well as they hoped with below-projection sales in lenses, Leica Microsystems shouldering them heavily in the lower range microscope section with their China-built microscopes, what else? I'm sure there is even more.

 

Anyway, there is Samsung out there as well with interesting ideas about cameras, they would not have much of a problem building an EVIL-R I suppose.

Edited June 15, 2009 by jaapv

[mhoersch]

Leica is definitely not going to build this "solution" themselves.

 

Oh yes, this bit of "information" must be just as definite as Lee's eternal upgrade program, right? Or Kaufmann's R10 the size of the R7 of the last Photokina, right?

 

Come on, Leica tell their customers completely contradictory things every few months. I don't believe a word they say, any longer, no matter who says it and on what occasion. They seem to make their statements of strategy just as carelessly as they they change their CEOs.

[jaapv]

OK, if you are going to dismiss everything Leica says as a lie straight out of hand, there is not much point in posting, I suppose.

On the words of Dr Kaufmann, I'm sure you read the German forum as well, and several posters pointed out, quite justified I think, that he never even implied that the successor to the R series would even be an SLR type camera.

[mhoersch]

By the way, has anyone noticed that the R System is still featured on the German Leica website? This company really has become pathetic beyond belief...

[mhoersch]

OK, if you are going to dismiss everything Leica says as a lie straight out of hand, there is not much point in posting, I suppose.

On the words of Dr Kaufmann, I'm sure you read the German forum as well, and several posters pointed out, quite justified I think, that he never even implied that the successor to the R series would even be an SLR type camera.

 

No personal offence, Jaap, but I can't tell you how sick I have become of trying to guess what some Leica nitwit might have meant when he or she said this or that - or when they didn't, for that matter. Regardless of what anyone says or does't say at Leica, you will probably agree to what it all has come to so far:

 

There is no eternal upgrade program for the M8.

There is no FF M9.

There is no R10.

The remaining R stock is being sold off by sh-photo.

There is yet another CEO.

There is no S2 - yet.

 

This is what I call "facts" or "information", as for the rest...

[jaapv]

By the way, has anyone noticed that the R System is still featured on the German Leica website? This company really has become pathetic beyond belief...

There is even R gear in the glass cases in the shop at the Leica factory.

[jaapv]

No personal offence, Jaap, but I can't tell you how sick I have become of trying to guess what some Leica nitwit might have meant when he or she said this or that - or when they didn't, for that matter. Regardless of what anyone says or does't say at Leica, you will probably agree to what it all has come to so far:

 

There is no eternal upgrade program for the M8.

There is no FF M9.

There is no R10.

The remaining R stock is being sold off by sh-photo.

There is yet another CEO.

There is no S2 - yet.

 

This is what I call "facts" or "information", as for the rest...

I disagree with point 2 and 6, Manfred. You may not be able to buy one yet, but outside Leica nobody knows what is or is not. And as to a new CEO, I doubt you would argue that Germany became untrustworthy when Dr. Adenauer got replaced. And is it not a little bit rude to call Mr. Daniel a nitwit?

[markgay]

Leica is best at glass. The company gains most when it plays to its strengths.

 

So do customers but we are a divided lot. Some are mostly into camera systems. Others love the glass and would use it on any system that gets the best out of the glass – even with electronic viewfinders.

 

Then there’s a third group, which would buy into a whole new camera system if meets the needs of a project. I suspect that is where the S2 is being targeted.

 

GREAT GLASS

 

Leica profits from its expertise in glass by creating and updating lenses. The question is: does it need to build camera systems to do that?

 

You don’t need a crystal ball to know that developing camera systems is risky. If it is not going to compete with the Japanese DSLRs, what system could match even the M8 in production numbers?

 

Coproduction with other system producers has a logic only if there are enough customers out there who appreciate what you gain from great glass.

 

M-MOVIES, ANYONE?

 

Rather than playing catch up with Japanese camera makers, Leica should jump one step ahead.

 

One growing area is video. The cost of digital cine has only just come down to the level where independent professionals can afford it, let alone amateurs. An increasing number of third-party manufacturers offer compatibility with Leica M and R lenses, and one struggling two-man Swedish team is even trying to build a digital 16mm camera (using a sensor from Leica’s favourite manufacturer) that would mount M lenses directly.

 

They’re ripe for a buyout from Leica if anyone is!

 

Regards,

Mark

Edited June 15, 2009 by markgay

[rosuna]

In spite of what the current outlook and projections are, I suspect that releasing the S2 first is a good decision on several levels. Not only does it place Leica back in the limelight and as a cutting-edge manufacturer with novel ideas, it also allows the technology to be scaled down and implemented in other cameras.

 

If Leica had released an R10 at this time, not only would they have met with massive skepticism, due to the sordid DMR tales, but many have already jumped boat to Nikon D3/D700/D3x or Sony A900, etc., so the remaining existing market is quite small compared even to the small number of R users in the DMR's heyday.

 

 

I fully agree... Canon is working in the next generation of professional cameras (1D and 1Ds Mark IV). They will be presented this summer. Back-illuminated CMOS sensors with spectacular performance? Maybe. Likely.

 

The Canon 5D Mark II and the Sony A900 are incredible cameras for the price.

 

Leica cannot be competitive here. The must DIFFERENTIATE their products, for avoiding direct price/features competition. That war is a secure failure for Leica. Even Olympus, Panasonic, Samsung and Pentax know this. Leica cannot play that game from Germany.

 

The M system and S system are different. They are placed "in between" solid positions in the market, where nobody is, so those systems can dispute a share of it. A 35mm reflex camera is not a reasonable project at this moment. It was in 2004-2005, when the DMR was developed, but not now. It is too late. The current market share of the R system is 0%.

 

A mirror-less 35mm camera is a great idea, based on the M mount of a different one. Olympus/Panasonic has products like this now (but with a format four times smaller) and Samsung is developing a NX system like that (APS-C based). There is a chance for Leica here, if they are fast in developing it. Is Leica considering video/cinema products too? New partners for it?

[rosuna]

Actually Stefan said they were sticking to Kodak, but should the need ever arise, Dalsa would be an alternative.

 

Kodak, Dalsa or Sony were typical CCD manufacturers. They provided sensors for many other camera manufacturers.

 

CMOS technology is changing that.

 

Are Back-illuminated CMOS sensors in Kodak's roadmap?

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[Sandokan]

Oh yes, this bit of "information" must be just as definite as Lee's eternal upgrade program, right? Or Kaufmann's R10 the size of the R7 of the last Photokina, right?

 

Come on, Leica tell their customers completely contradictory things every few months. I don't believe a word they say, any longer, no matter who says it and on what occasion. They seem to make their statements of strategy just as carelessly as they they change their CEOs.

I believe the size of the crisis since Photokina explains the change in strategy for Leica.

 

And like many other companies, if the S2 were to sell its 10,000 units in the first 12 months then I am sure the project portfolio of Leica would change drastically to the point where you have your FF M9, FF R10 and S3.

 

Let us be realistic - Leica has limited resources and has to prioritise its R&D and manufacture to deliver goods people will buy in sufficient numbers to make a profit.

 

Ravi