Sean Reid's review of a pre-production upgraded M8

[dseelig]

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Tax write offs are only good if you make enough money to need them. David

[Jamie Roberts]

Tax write offs are only good if you make enough money to need them. David

 

Ahhh we live it different countries with different tax rules (here true tax breaks are rare) but yes, that's true; a tax write off against zero income is pretty dumb.

 

Of course a business with zero income isn't really much of a business for long, is it?

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[dseelig]

There are good years and bad years, and what good does a smart a---- remark do, the facts are leica continues to make money off of there design mistakes uv ir filters and a camera that is louder then a canon 1d 111 series in its quiet mode. I do not know if this was a plan but damm 1800 for this shutter and screen. Too much David

[Jamie Roberts]

There are good years and bad years, and what good does a smart a---- remark do, the facts are leica continues to make money off of there design mistakes uv ir filters and a camera that is louder then a canon 1d 111 series in its quiet mode. I do not know if this was a plan but damm 1800 for this shutter and screen. Too much David

 

David--nothing personal, I wasn't trying to make a smart*** comment in the slightest and I understand the value isn't there for you the same way the value isn't there for me to get a 1d3 in the first place.

 

But the fact is here in the frozen North I can write the entire thing off in one year--I don't even have to depreciate it the way I would with a new purchase.

 

I honestly don't believe, either, that they in any way planned to "make money" off the IR filter thing. They did give away two for free to all the early adopters.

[russell]

The upgrade makes sense to me. My warranty has run out. Also if I want to sell it in the next 2 years having had the upgrade makes it easier.

The real issue is if I want to keep dumping more money into Leica when the G9s, Ricoh's of the world are getting closer and closer to a digital Barnack.

[marknorton]

Unless the Canadian tax rules are different from what I imagine, all this much vaunted tax write-off allows you to do is treat is as a business expense which reduces your taxable income on which you pay tax - you are still foregoing some net of tax income to purchase the upgrade.

 

Off the boring stuff...

 

Cocking the shutter consists of nothing more than moving the lever on the shutter about 1cm and is achieved by the motor, gearbox and cam going through a single rotation. Change the design of that - right under where a lever wind would go - and the gearing and it would be possible to have a lever wound shutter. Alternatively, you could put a lever on the bottom plate which would be easier or else use something like a Leicavit lever wind attachment.

 

For all its complexity, the M8 is much simpler mechanically than a fully mechanical SLR.

[wattsy]

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Unless the Canadian tax rules are different from what I imagine, all this much vaunted tax write-off allows you to do is treat is as a business expense which reduces your taxable income on which you pay tax - you are still foregoing some net of tax income to purchase the upgrade.

 

To be fair, I don't think Jamie was arguing that the upgrade would ultimately be free of cost to him but you do read that kind of nonsense frequently here and on other forums.

[tashley]

There are good years and bad years, and what good does a smart a---- remark do, the facts are leica continues to make money off of there design mistakes uv ir filters and a camera that is louder then a canon 1d 111 series in its quiet mode. I do not know if this was a plan but damm 1800 for this shutter and screen. Too much David

 

David, you have to live with the following fact, like it or not: if it sells, it is not a design mistake. Sorry.

 

Tim

[egibaud]

maybe I'll upgrade one body and leave the other one as it is. This way, I'll have a quieter camera and also a 8000th shuter speed camera and use either according to my needs.

 

Actually I must admit that 1200 Euros does sound high but.... if we consider the competition it would be buy a new camera or keep the old version.... and in this camera price range it would cost us far more than 1200 Euros.

 

If Leica can keep up with the challenge of offering upgrades including sensor change etc. and extend garanty everytime it will be far cheaper than what competition offers.

 

MarkII then a MarkIII ..... cost????... loss???? second hand Mark II price?

 

It will help keeping M8 second hand price higher than it would with an M9 on the market.

 

Eric

[hankg]

maybe I'll upgrade one body and leave the other one as it is. This way, I'll have a quieter camera and also a 8000th shuter speed camera and use either according to my needs.

 

Actually I must admit that 1200 Euros does sound high but.... if we consider the competition it would be buy a new camera or keep the old version.... and in this camera price range it would cost us far more than 1200 Euros.

 

If Leica can keep up with the challenge of offering upgrades including sensor change etc. and extend garanty everytime it will be far cheaper than what competition offers.

 

MarkII then a MarkIII ..... cost????... loss???? second hand Mark II price?

 

It will help keeping M8 second hand price higher than it would with an M9 on the market.

 

Eric

 

The move from a MKII to a MKIII may cost more then $1800 after you have sold the old camera and bought the new. But you will be getting a lot more then a improved shutter and warranty. I expect once you have added a future sensor upgrade into the price of your upgraded M8 it will be more expensive then selling your old camera to buy a new one. Assuming the new one is priced similarly to the model it replaces which is the norm with digital.

 

If Leica came out with an M9 or M8 MKII with improved shutter, sensor and ergonomics in 2009 for $5800 and you sold your M8 for $2800 it would cost you $3,000 to upgrade and you would not have to pay in advance and send your camera off for a month (2 times for 2 upgrades of shutter and sensor). You would also have the possibility of an improved body (thinner? maybe not likely) and external controls (external ISO EV? likely). In theory the upgrade sounds great but in realty considering price and schedule it may not be all that ground breaking.

[hankg]

I'd add one more point. Leica probably ran the numbers on development costs for a new M model every 2 years or so for a market of maybe 10,000 units versus selling rather pricey upgrades and only investing in developing something ground up new every 5 or 6 years and figured the upgrade model was less risky and more lucrative.

 

I know the M8 sold a lot more then 10,000 units but if they start introducing new cameras every 2 years there will be a lot of used M8's in the market and they won't have the pent up demand for a digital M that existed for the M8. So with this small RF market it might not be possible to mimic the development cycle of the big DSLR mass market makers who are defraying development costs over 100,s of thousands of units on the high end and millions of units on the lower end.

 

It is just damnably expensive to develop high end digital cameras exclusively for tiny niche markets. MF makers charge $20 to $30,000 just for a back and are struggling.

[scott kirkpatrick]

I'd add one more point. Leica probably ran the numbers on development costs for a new M model every 2 years or so for a market of maybe 10,000 units versus selling rather pricey upgrades and only investing in developing something ground up new every 5 or 6 years and figured the upgrade model was less risky and more lucrative.

 

I know the M8 sold a lot more then 10,000 units but if they start introducing new cameras every 2 years there will be a lot of used M8's in the market and they won't have the pent up demand for a digital M that existed for the M8. So with this small RF market it might not be possible to mimic the development cycle of the big DSLR mass market makers who are defraying development costs over 100,s of thousands of units on the high end and millions of units on the lower end.

 

It is just damnably expensive to develop high end digital cameras exclusively for tiny niche markets. MF makers charge $20 to $30,000 just for a back and are struggling.

 

The challenge facing Leica in finding the appropriate marketing and channels is probably just as serious. A development organization with 30 engineers and programmers, leaving out the lens design organization, burns at least $6M per year on German payscales. If the difference between price and base manufacturing cost on each of the 25,000 M8s sold to date is $2-3,000, that's $50-75M, more than enough to pay the camera engineers. But the costs of rework, of manucturing interfaces to Portugal and Japan, and of sharing that profit with country organizations and a dealer network could easily absorb much of the rest. And performing this balancing act year after year on a total of 10,000 units annual sales doesn't look that appealing. I can see why Mr. Lee talks about offering a range of models at a range of (still high) prices. Life with over 100,000 units of product per year would be much more comfortable.

 

scott

[sandymc]

Their problem is actually more acute than that - in the M6/M7/MP days, Leica was basically a low fixed cost, high variable cost manufacturer - they designed things relatively seldom, and designed them for high levels of handwork. Electonics is totally different - enormously high upfront fixed costs to get the design right, then low cost manufacturing. Means you have to sell in volume to make money; I guess right now they're looking at an ugly problem - the market perception of the M8 is a flawed product and they have probably exhausted the "Leica fan" market, so what probably had been intended to be a four-five year product is now looking more like a two year product. Textbook marketing answer - product extentions (something that looks like a new product, but doesn't have R&D costs like a new product) to keep up sales without needing (much) new invstement.

 

Sandy

[hankg]

Their problem is actually more acute than that - in the M6/M7/MP days, Leica was basically a low fixed cost, high variable cost manufacturer - they designed things relatively seldom, and designed them for high levels of handwork. Electonics is totally different - enormously high upfront fixed costs to get the design right, then low cost manufacturing. Means you have to sell in volume to make money; I guess right now they're looking at an ugly problem - the market perception of the M8 is a flawed product and they have probably exhausted the "Leica fan" market, so what probably had been intended to be a four-five year product is now looking more like a two year product. Textbook marketing answer - product extentions (something that looks like a new product, but doesn't have R&D costs like a new product) to keep up sales without needing (much) new invstement.

 

Sandy

 

I'd say you have identified the challenge: selling low volumes profitably in a business that depends on high volumes. However I would take exception to the Leica fan base analogy. The fact of the matter is there is a finite potential market for manual rangefinder cameras in this day and age period. I think Leica broke out of it's fan base with the M8 so that meant going from 10,000 units to 20,000+ units. Probably successful beyond their projections but still a tiny market and still problematic going forward.

 

If they can make the R line a viable contender in the high end DSLR market. Say on the level of one of the second tier players that would change everything. Look for a very daring ambitious R10 model. They also need a $1,000 - $1,500 made in Asia compact that shows more innovation then the D line has shown up until now and a Ricoh GRD challenger.

[Guest jimmy pro]

There is a problem with the price of this upgrade, whether or not you can afford it. I'm a pretty affluent guy, and $1,800 is not a significant sum of money to me. Still, for what you get for your $1,800, if you were to send it to any of a number of third-world-oriented charities, you could literally save some lives. If you pay $1,800 for this upgrade, you are literally paying to reduce the sound of a camera from a medium finger-snap to a quiet finger-snap, or something on that order. How many lives is that much sound reduction worth?

 

I know this is a harsh way to put it, and there are undoubtedly professionals who need a quieter shutter for their work...but for those who say the question of $1,800 is simply a matter of whether or not you can afford it -- no it isn't. There's also the question of what else you could do with it. That's what bothers me. I would like a quieter shutter; I think there are better places to put $1,800.

 

JC

 

Every time I consider contributing to some charity to help foreigners I think about how they all mouth off against Americans and say f -'em. But I digress. For me it's also not about the $1800 being a big deal. What's a big deal is feeling like I paid $1800 to get bent over and take it up the tailpipe. There are better ways to spend $1800 right in Leica gear.

[Guest jimmy pro]

Well, mine is up. It was only 1 year in Canada anyway, IIRC. Doesn't matter: it will be two by the time I upgrade if I upgrade.

 

 

Well that makes sense. Your a pro, your M8 gets rode hard and put away wet as the cowboys say, by two years the shutter's probably close to the end of its statistical life, and given the M8's shaky reliability and the hourly wage of those black forrest elves, a new shutter and renewing the warranty makes good sense. I wonder if Leica would let someone do the upgrade with a new original-style 1/8000 shutter instead. I mean, what's the difference to them. Unless they ran out of them. I mean, isn't it dumb as hell for Leica to stock two different shutters and keep on building M8's with the old shutter and make buyers pay to swap em out? But if they eventually quit stocking the old shutters then some people are going to get a new 1/4000 shutter free under warranty when there old one craps out. Won't that be a kick in the head for the guys who upgrade BTW I'm sure the warranty is the same 2 yrs in Canada. It's a factory warranty from Germany.

 

So they will run out of the old shuter at some stage and start using the new shutter standard. When will this be or do Leica have a stockpile of two hundred old ones that will take seven years to clear?

 

That's what I'm talking about! They'd more realisticly need a stockpile of thousands, if there being honest there gonna keep making the M8 with the old shutter.

[hankg]

Every time I consider contributing to some charity to help foreigners I think about how they all mouth off against Americans and say f -'em.

 

Considering the US is borrowing $3 Billion a day from foreigners to keep it's economy afloat you had better hope those dang fur'iners don't decide to one day say f-'em.

 

While our biggest creditor is China many would be shocked to know that up there in the top 10 of countries we are in hock up to our eyeballs to is Mexico. Yes, Mexico! I think we owe them something like $74 Billion. American's have not really kept up with the changes in our wonderful 'new economy'. Eisenhower ain't president anymore, welcome to the 21st century.

[sean_reid]

The upgrade makes sense to me. My warranty has run out. Also if I want to sell it in the next 2 years having had the upgrade makes it easier.

The real issue is if I want to keep dumping more money into Leica when the G9s, Ricoh's of the world are getting closer and closer to a digital Barnack.

 

I don't think the G9 is getting very close but the Ricohs are really interesting, if one likes small sensor cameras.

 

Cheers,

 

Sean

[ken_tanaka]

Considering the US is borrowing $3 Billion a day from foreigners to keep it's economy afloat you had better hope those dang fur'iners don't decide to one day say f-'em.

 

While our biggest creditor is China many would be shocked to know that up there in the top 10 of countries we are in hock up to our eyeballs to is Mexico. Yes, Mexico! I think we owe them something like $74 Billion. American's have not really kept up with the changes in our wonderful 'new economy'. Eisenhower ain't president anymore, welcome to the 21st century.

Now, Hank... you must work for television! To say that we're "in hock" to other countries is to suggest that we're begging for money. That's not the case. The fact is that sovereignties and non-U.S. investors have simply been buying standard U.S. Treasury bond issues, the same issues available to U.S. investors. U.S. Treasuries have long been attractive for their good-as-gold creditworthiness as well as for the relatively good yields. It IS true that China has become a large buyer of U.S. Treasuries. The fear is that if they begin dumping our bonds it will dramatically destabilize an already unstable U.S. economy. BTW, this was the same story drafted from the early 1980's with Japan cast in the China role.

 

But this is no place for an economics class.

 

Remarks by Sandy, Scott, and others above have headed this "upgrade" discussion in a direction that I think is central to whether or not Leica's M8 fountain-of-youth program is really a viable perpetual strategy. Particularly, it seems to me that such programs amount to being principally SERVICE offerings rather than product / manufacturing offerings. So it may prompt questions regarding the degree to which Leica plans to transform itself into a service-based company.

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Hallo,

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[ken_tanaka]

I don't think the G9 is getting very close but the Ricohs are really interesting, if one likes small sensor cameras.

 

Cheers,

 

Sean

While I agree that there is a difference between a G9 and an M8, as you know I don't believe that that difference is nearly as wide as as your reply might suggest, particularly when range of application is considered.

 

But Russell's question, regardless of the specific camera model, is an extremely salient issue for Leica's future. Certainly no vocational photographer (weddings, commercial, etc.) is going to feel comfortable showing up with a G9-style camera. Even if that camera far exceeds the capabilities of a much larger and more costly model it just presents an image flaw. Showing up with just an M8 already probably requires some 'splaining, eh Sean? (Videographers are facing this same issue today as newer HD video cameras become smaller and more hand-held rather than shoulder-mounted bricks.)

 

We, here, know the added value of Leica's fine optics and the unique characteristics of the rangefinder-style camera. But are this qualities going to be sufficiently identifiable and valuable to sustain Leica indefinitely (collectors and fondlers aside). I seriously doubt it.