M9 on track

[miami91]

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Sell! Sell! Sell!

 

Or, maybe, "buy, buy, buy"!! I'm sure I read somewhere (LFI interview?) that Herr Kaufmann and his family own 95% plus of Leica's outstanding shares. If the share price has dropped that much, perhaps he'll just acquire the remaining shares and take the company private.

 

On the other hand, if Kaufmann owns 95% of the stock and hasn't been actively trading it, not sure how the price could have fallen so much.

 

In any event, if it's true that he's the overwhelming majority stockholder, it seems unlikely that he's too worried about pleasing the investor community....

 

Jeff.

Edited June 16, 2009 by miami91
clarification

[thrid]

We're all just guessing, only Leica know the outstanding issues.

 

What if they've already solved the M8 issue of the angle of light on a full frame sensor and were able to build a camera with a full frame, but they hadn't yet found a way to do away with the IR filters? If that were the case, and they couldn't solve the IR issue, then they release an M9 that requires the continued use of filters.

 

Again, this is just supposition on my part based on the fact that IR was mentioned as an issue with the M9, but not light fall off in the corners of a full frame.

 

Here's a crazy idea. Make a set of digital-ready lenses that have the IR coating on the rear element.

 

Or incorporate the filter inside the lens.

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[thrid]

Given the depth and length of this current global recession/depression, I doubt many $7,000 plus cameras are being sold. Before all of this mess started, my accountant would tell me to go buy some cameras or lenses every November or December, otherwise the tax man would get it anyway. We're not rich, just hard working small business people. Spending $7-$15,000 on cameras and lenses every year was normal just 2 or 3 years ago.

Tom

 

Wow, we have the same accountant....

;-)

[nugat]

And you have the wrong tax system. In Poland we have 19% flat tax for those who want. . No need for accountants, it's fair to give the state less than a fifth...Our economy grew 1.8% in Q1 2009.

Edited June 16, 2009 by nugat

[nugat]

Or, maybe, "buy, buy, buy"!! I'm sure I read somewhere (LFI interview?) that Herr Kaufmann and his family own 95% plus of Leica's outstanding shares. If the share price has dropped that much, perhaps he'll just acquire the remaining shares and take the company private.

 

On the other hand, if Kaufmann owns 95% of the stock and hasn't been actively trading it, not sure how the price could have fallen so much.

 

In any event, if it's true that he's the overwhelming majority stockholder, it seems unlikely that he's too worried about pleasing the investor community....

 

Jeff.

 

Reuters says:

 

market cap 45.00 mil

shr outstand 15.00 mil

float 6.10 mil

[miami91]

Reuters says:

 

market cap 45.00 mil

shr outstand 15.00 mil

float 6.10 mil

 

 

Financial markets are not an area of expertise for me, but doesn't this mean (the difference between "outstanding" and "float") that basically 60% of the shares aren't traded on the open market? And of the 6.1 mil that are theoretically available for purchase, isn't it possible that most/all are in the hands of Kaufmann's family? If so, this information doesn't really give us any idea what sort of pressure investors could put on Leica's decision-making.

 

Any information on volume of trading of the stock?

 

Jeff.

[dcoombs]

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Reuters says:

 

market cap 45.00 mil

shr outstand 15.00 mil

float 6.10 mil

 

Go ahead and short the stock if that's what you want to do. Me, I wouldn't take a position, long or short, without a whole lot more information than what you had in your earlier post.

[miami91]

And you have the wrong tax system. In Poland we have 19% flat tax for those who want. . No need for accountants, it's fair to give the state less than a fifth...Our economy grew 1.8% in Q1 2009.

 

FYI, most Americans also give the state less than a fifth. Big difference between marginal tax rates and effective tax rates. We (USA) just tend to use the tax code to incentive/disincentive behaviour through any number of tax breaks/credits/loopholes/depreciation schedules, etc., thus leading to the complications that require an industry of experts to administer (CPAs, tax attorneys, etc.).

 

Alas, back to the topic: So much of the recession is psychological, I think it's safe to say that "this too shall pass", and people of means will once again be more than willing to spend $5k to $10k on a camera. I don't mean to trivialize *at all* those that have lost their jobs/homes, but reality check --- 85-90% of us haven't suffered a loss such as this. In my admittedly small circle of friends/family, the only losses sustained have been in home values and brokerage/retirement account values, and as long as you aren't in imminent need to sell your home or retire (I'm in my 30s), there's plenty of time to make those gains back. So as soon as people emerge from their bunker mentality (which is soon, I hope), I think you'll see purse strings loosen once again.

 

Jeff.

[nugat]

Financial markets are not an area of expertise for me, but doesn't this mean (the difference between "outstanding" and "float") that basically 60% of the shares aren't traded on the open market? And of the 6.1 mil that are theoretically available for purchase, isn't it possible that most/all are in the hands of Kaufmann's family? If so, this information doesn't really give us any idea what sort of pressure investors could put on Leica's decision-making.

 

Any information on volume of trading of the stock?

 

Jeff.

 

Jeff,

You don't need to be an expert to know that Kaufmann wants to take Leica private. He milked the profit to bring down the attractivness of investment of the outstanding shares lower. He is maybe a Leica fan, but mostly a businesmann. Once in control he'll incrase P/E ratio to sell to Panasonic or others. Look at the "goodwill" position in the annual report.

"Leica" brand worth nothing?

PS My Reuters report shows volume trading at 0

[marknorton]

ACM (Dr Kaufamann's investment vehicle) tried to exercise a squeeze-out resolution (as I understand it, a compulsory purchase of minority stock interests) which failed, leading to a number of minority stockholders with no place to go. I think the price has sunk to €3 because there is effectively no market and trading volumes are as close to 0 as makes no difference. ACM are such a dominant stockholder that anyone buying the stock will hardly be able to influence the way the company is run.

[miami91]

Jeff,

You don't need to be an expert to know that Kaufmann wants to take Leica private. He milked the profit to bring down the attractivness of investment of the outstanding shares lower. He is maybe a Leica fan, but mostly a businesmann. Once in control he'll incrase P/E ratio to sell to Panasonic or others. Look at the "goodwill" position in the annual report.

"Leica" brand worth nothing?

PS My Reuters report shows volume trading at 0

 

 

On that we agree! I'm sure it's his intention to take the firm private (that's what I speculated a few posts above). As to what this means for the future of the company, we'll have to wait and see....

 

Jeff.

[nugat]

On that we agree! I'm sure it's his intention to take the firm private (that's what I speculated a few posts above). As to what this means for the future of the company, we'll have to wait and see....

 

Jeff.

 

Of course we agree on Leica.

We don't agree on tax systems where the american one is commie and the polish one is american...

 

Piotr

Edited June 16, 2009 by nugat

[jaapv]

Here's a crazy idea. Make a set of digital-ready lenses that have the IR coating on the rear element.

 

Or incorporate the filter inside the lens.

It works perfectly if the filter is next to the diaphragm. I have one lens that has just that.

9.8 mm and no vignetting or cyan drift.

[jaapv]

Peter,

 

I am sure you are aware there was no Leica M1 production rangefinder, the first "M" was the M3, followed by the M2 (yep, the M3 preceded the M2).

There certainly was a Leica M1. It came after the M2 and M3 and had no rangefinder. It had framelines and parallax compensation too. The RF window was used for a M1 badge.

[nugat]

hey jaap, care to comment on my info on leica profit margin ?

Like they make 100% on M8?

[Vieri]

Peter,

 

I am sure you are aware there was no Leica M1 production rangefinder, the first "M" was the M3, followed by the M2 (yep, the M3 preceded the M2).

 

There certainly was a Leica M1. It came after the M2 and M3 and had no rangefinder. It had framelines and parallax compensation too. The RF window was used for a M1 badge.

 

Indeed there was one. With framelines but no parallax compensation as I am aware of (plus, it wouldn't work anyway not having the RF and a moving focussing patch to begin with).

[Printmaker]

FYI, most Americans also give the state less than a fifth. Big difference between marginal tax rates and effective tax rates. We (USA) just tend to use the tax code to incentive/disincentive behaviour through any number of tax breaks/credits/loopholes/depreciation schedules, etc., thus leading to the complications that require an industry of experts to administer (CPAs, tax attorneys, etc.).

 

Jeff.

 

Loopholes are good for business... every business. Without being able to deduct and depreciate, I'd pay close to 70% (average: 35% income + 15% self employment + 3% state income + 4% state sales + 8% property) of my hard earned money in taxes instead of a mere 40%-45%. But this last year that 40% was on a slim profit. Too bad Uncle, I only gave you a few grand this time around to bail out the thieves on Wall Street. As for the State of Hawaii, you gotta expect to pay a little more for the palm trees.

 

Leica: buiild that M9, and make it good, real good.

 

Tom

[DaveB]

What a pain in the ass for those of using both an M8 and M9 if the M9 no longer requires filters. Not only would that be a major expense down the drain it would be a PITA screwing filters on and off all the time.

 

No kidding. I just received a Panasonic G1 and CameraQuest adapter. I don't mind swapping lenses, but swapping filters is horrible. Some threads are just asking to cause you grief.

 

Plus, the IR sensitivity is one of the M8's charms, IMHO. I miss the option of hand-held IR photography when using anything else.

 

BTW, the G1 allows me to focus the long, fast Leica lenses perfectly. I use the G1 for the razor sharp shallow DOF shots. The M8 sports the 12mm, 24mm and 35mm lenses.

[adan]

There WAS a production M1 Leica body:

 

http://www.collectiblecameras.com/catalog/images/M1Leicaa.jpg

 

But, technically, NZAV is correct, in that he said there was no production M1 rangefinder - and of course, the M1 does not have a rangefinder...

 

8^)

 

IR coating on or inside a lens is even worse for switch hitters than external IR filters - no way to remove it even if you want to for film or on other digital cameras.

 

The deal with the IR filtering is that a THICK IR filter would cause reflection problems near the corners, again this is more of a problem for M lenses than for SLR lenses that sit further from the image plane. Therefore Leica specced a thinner filter (which filters less). However, even at the time the M8 came out, someone noted that Schott or someone was already developing an IR filtering glass that was more powerful - i.e. it could deliver the same amount of IR blocking in a thinner filter. This may be what Leica is now working with (or not).

 

I was going to add a diagram thingie but it will take longer to make then the forum's time-out for editing - so it will appear later.

Edited June 17, 2009 by adan

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Hallo,

Look here: Leica M

[Printmaker]

Plus, the IR sensitivity is one of the M8's charms, IMHO. I miss the option of hand-held IR photography when using anything else.

 

I could see keeping my M8 forever just for its IR potential. Fortunately I have two 35 mm lenses.