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S2 under pricing pressure


andreas_thomsen

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According to Leica:

...

* Price will be on the same level as the top cameras in the digital professional segment - like high end solutions by Hasselblad and Phase One

* Body will be below 20,000 Euros...

FWIW.

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They will sell it between 7000 to 8000 euros.

 

Provided that they are able to keep their production costs down, this would allow Leica to aggressively position the S2 system and quickly expand market share. This should be the maximum price point for the S2 to be positioned IMO. Unfortunately, Leica has seldom demonstrated much savvy with respect to the marketing and positioning of their products with a view to expand market share, being content to play in a restricted niche market.

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Has anyone noticed that Leica is late in publishing their annual report? Why do you think that Leica has delayed publishing its annual report? Maybe their accountants are just so busy they haven't had time to finish it yet?

 

P.S. Last Year it was published in mid June.

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It doesn't matter that Dr. K owns the large majority of the shares. The minority investors are protected by law and as long as the company is listed as a public company (i.e. hasn't gone LEGALLY private) it must report its financials to protect the minority shareholders and the public that trades in their shares.

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Yes- that is what I said - legal requirement. I meant to say that in this case the pressure of the stock market is minimal, so there may simply be no hurry. But who knows? It may be an indication of an upheaval, unlikely though that seems to be.

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Guest guy_mancuso

Actually in the US there is a date a annual report needs to be filed by. Being a German company not sure if any there is such a date or requirement and actually it could very well be a Austria company as the parent of Leica. Not sure of there structure though

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The annual report on all of Germany is out already, and it is not pretty. See WSJ here

Germany Can Change to Confront Export Slump -- but Will It? - WSJ.com

I hope the very wealthy Dr. K can stay true to his comment that he won't need to make money on the S2 for five years.

BTW, if Dr. K can wait 5 years, then he can afford to price it anyway he cares. If the files beat Phase 65+ he can price it at $30+ and say the S2 is a bargain. Using the Apple analogy, I do not expect him to buy market share with low pricing. I further suspect that if Dr. K didn't think he could beat Phase One in the DxO Mark sensor ratings, he would have purchased Phase One. We must wait until September to see if he was right.

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Anyway, the report is bound to be not that good - but I think Leica has been pretty lucky. I'm sure the long term planning will have predicted a substantial loss this year: The R&D on the S2 has not yet been translated into sales and the M8 is on the downward shoulder of the sales curve. The only really unexpected minus will be the low volume of sales of the Summarit line. It turns out that that was a bad marketing decision by Mr. Lee. Even if the lenses are good, Leica customers will not buy "cheap" stuff. The sales of the Summiluxes is ten times that of the Summarits.

There are however quite a number of plusses.

The first is that Leica has found a chief designer on the level of Barnack and Mandler in Mr. Karbe. From what I hear he might even be better than these giants. Result: Leica has over the last three years produced more new lens designs than Canon, Nikon and Zeiss combined, and what kind of lenses!

Secondly the M8 is selling not too much under expectations, the reduced working time in production is 20%, as I say, the downward shoulder, the recession is not biting too deeply, except on the USA market which is less than 20% of the total.

Three: The flagship is on schedule and due to come out as planned.

Four: There are strong rumours in distributor circles about a major announcement in the M camera line in September. Fwiiw. That would be a major boost to lens sales.

Five: It has been possible to cut costs and risks by dropping the R line.

It looks to me like a company that is running at an expected loss at the moment and is strongly poised to come out of the starting block running as soon as the economy picks up.

 

Let's hope Dr. Kaufmann sees it this way as well ;):rolleyes:

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Anyway, the report is bound to be not that good - but I think Leica has been pretty lucky. I'm sure the long term planning will have predicted a substantial loss this year: The R&D on the S2 has not yet been translated into sales and the M8 is on the downward shoulder of the sales curve. The only really unexpected minus will be the low volume of sales of the Summarit line. It turns out that that was a bad marketing decision by Mr. Lee. Even if the lenses are good, Leica customers will not buy "cheap" stuff. The sales of the Summiluxes is ten times that of the Summarits.

There are however quite a number of plusses.

The first is that Leica has found a chief designer on the level of Barnack and Mandler in Mr. Karbe. From what I hear he might even be better than these giants. Result: Leica has over the last three years produced more new lens designs than Canon, Nikon and Zeiss combined, and what kind of lenses!

Secondly the M8 is selling not too much under expectations, the reduced working time in production is 20%, as I say, the downward shoulder, the recession is not biting too deeply, except on the USA market which is less than 20% of the total.

Three: The flagship is on schedule and due to come out as planned.

Four: There are strong rumours in distributor circles about a major announcement in the M camera line in September. Fwiiw. That would be a major boost to lens sales.

Five: It has been possible to cut costs and risks by dropping the R line.

It looks to me like a company that is running at an expected loss at the moment and is strongly poised to come out of the starting block running as soon as the economy picks up.

 

Let's hope Dr. Kaufmann sees it this way as well ;):rolleyes:

 

That is sure putting a positive spin on a negative picture. If your M9 rumor had any basis why wouldn't Leica announce it? After all they announced the S2 a year in advance of any possible delivery. Why not announce the M9 3 months in advance? Given Leica's vague delivery date for the S2 it is easy to make the claim it is on time and schedule since a concrete time and schedule was never given. However, my recollection was that everyone originally interpreted it to be around the July time frame not September. How do you know that dropping the R line allowed them to cut costs? Did they lay off or fire anyone as a result? Considering they will have continued to bleed after the end of the FY in March and that the S2 sales are not likely to be sufficient to carry the company how do you interpret that this makes them a strong contender able to start running as soon as the economy picks up? When your bank account is dry and credit lines are maxed out you are not in a great position to start running. :rolleyes:

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If your M9 rumor had any basis why wouldn't Leica announce it? After all they announced the S2 a year in advance of any possible delivery.

 

Leica hasn't announced a successor to the M8.2 because they are still making and selling the M8.2. Announcing its successor now would kill M8.2 sales. Leica has no MF dSLR on the market so announcing the S2 ahead of delivery only kills competitors' sales, not their own.

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That is sure putting a positive spin on a negative picture. If your M9 rumor had any basis why wouldn't Leica announce it? After all they announced the S2 a year in advance of any possible delivery. Why not announce the M9 3 months in advance? Given Leica's vague delivery date for the S2 it is easy to make the claim it is on time and schedule since a concrete time and schedule was never given. However, my recollection was that everyone originally interpreted it to be around the July time frame not September. How do you know that dropping the R line allowed them to cut costs? Did they lay off or fire anyone as a result? Considering they will have continued to bleed after the end of the FY in March and that the S2 sales are not likely to be sufficient to carry the company how do you interpret that this makes them a strong contender able to start running as soon as the economy picks up? When your bank account is dry and credit lines are maxed out you are not in a great position to start running. :rolleyes:

R&D costs are not just personell costs. They may well have avoided hiring reseach staff by diverting them from the R10 team too. A concrete schedule was given at the end of last year: "Production start late summer". A few weeks ago "September" and "on schedule" were specifically mentioned for the S2 How concrete must Leica get?

The sources of my rumour are in the distributor/large dealer circuit. In September Leica "will announce something substantial in the M line" Make of that what you will. Maybe it is three months in advance :p Otoh, the official Leica line is: M9 or M8.3.But yes, it is a rumour and as such may be false.

And why would it kill off M8.2 sales? It may well be that the M8.2 remains as entry-level M camera.

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R&D costs are not just personell costs. They may well have avoided hiring reseach staff by diverting them from the R10 team too. A concrete schedule was given at the end of last year: "Production start late summer". A few weeks ago "September" and "on schedule" were specifically mentioned for the S2 How concrete must Leica get?

The sources of my rumour are in the distributor/large dealer circuit. In September Leica "will announce something substantial in the M line" Make of that what you will. Maybe it is three months in advance :p Otoh, the official Leica line is: M9 or M8.3.But yes, it is a rumour and as such may be false.

And why would it kill off M8.2 sales? It may well be that the M8.2 remains as entry-level M camera.

 

Jaap,

 

I am sorry to sound as pessimistic as John but my guess is that something significant in the M line will be something like a Ferrari badged M8 in red leather and a couple of new lenses (maybe an updated 35/1.4 with internal focusing and a 28/1.4). Leica's lens department seems to be showing the other guys how to do it at the moment. The lenses would not be silly and would I think, be quite good sellers.

 

Wilson

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I also fail to understand how a full frame M9 could drive the sale of Leica lenses ... my impression is that world's craziest M gearheads are all on the forum already and most of these people have settled with their own choices of optics, some probably already have a full set of M glass.

 

And it's suppose to cost an average Joe an arm and a leg ... correct?

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my guess is that something significant in the M line will be something like a Ferrari badged M8

 

In the name of Ferrari, Leica should plant the loudest shutter they could find on earth into this special edition. I may be interested ... LOL

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