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Leica refuses to confirm M9 launch...


cadthis

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Stunsworth, I didn't say I don't think they are releasing a camera in September. I just don't think it will be a FF M9. I think they will announce an M8.x and probably a rebadged 4/3rds, neither of which would have the financial impact of a FF M9.

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If you have ever been involved in the preparation of an annual report with a public company and certified public accountants you know that every word has to be scrutinized carefully for possible impact. It doesn't matter if 98% of the stock is privately owned. The law is designed to protect the minority shareholder from the majority shareholder(s). Something like an M9 release within 30 days of releasing their financial report without any disclosure and a negative accountant's report would be seen as giving insiders an unfair advantage because it is a material event that would positively impact the share price.

I can see that and that is only reasonable, but wouldn't there have to be actual trading to allege insider knowledge trading?

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There is trading though the volume is quite low. The image below was taken from the web site of a company that sell financial information. It hasn't been updated to reflect the latest annual report yet.

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There is trading though the volume is quite low. The image below was taken from the web site of a company that sell financial information. It hasn't been updated to reflect the latest annual report yet.
Interesting, thanks. I don't know German corporate law, but I do know it is quite different from for instance the USA. It is an interesting point you made.Well, anyway, as with all rumours, time will tell
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The real concern is not the production of the kit but rather the long term ability of Leica to support these cameras. If Leica were to fold, these digital kits will be very difficult to have repaired and be virtually worthless on any sort of resale market.

 

Witness what has happened to Leaf in the most recent fall out. The comparison is valid and a real concern for the purchaser.

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If Leica were to fold, these digital kits will be very difficult to have repaired and be virtually worthless on any sort of resale market

 

And I could be run over by a bus tomorrow. Remember the line about nothing being certain in life other than death and taxes? I can't say I've ever bought any piece of camera or electronic equipment with the thought of what it would be worth when I sell it in mind.

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Something like an M9 release within 30 days of releasing their financial report without any disclosure and a negative accountant's report would be seen as giving insiders an unfair advantage because it is a material event that would positively impact the share price.

 

Barjohn,

I'm not following your logic here. I mean, at some point, a new product is going to be released. It doesn't matter whether it's a day, a week or a month, etc. after the release of a financial report. The insiders will always have the advantage of knowledge over the outsiders. It's the way it's supposed to be.

They only get in trouble when they use that knowledge for personal gain. For example, if there was a lot of insider trading activity in days leading up to a new product launch - that's the sort of thing that could attract the attention of regulators.

But I'm not aware of any U.S. securities laws that prohibit a company from launching a new product in the days after revealing its financial results.

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Checking Price:

 

(NB - all of the following is based on the RUMORED price of a RUMORED M9 FF RUMORED to be released Sept. 9, 2009)

 

A 5,500 euro price for the M9 translates to $7,789 US at today's rates - that's a worst-case scenario that assumes the euro price doesn't include VAT. If it does, the US price (before tax) would be about 15% +/- lower - $6,779.

 

(With the usual caveat that Leica's prices often do not translate directly in any event from country to country - depends on the local market)

 

The M8.2 current costs $5,995 (per B&H - no rebates or discounts or hidden prices available).

 

So - worst case - the M9 would be 30% more than a cropped M8.2

 

For comparison (all prices ex B&H web site today except discontinued D2Xs - rebates and cart prices applied)

 

Nikon D700 (FF) vs. Nikon D300 (crop) = $2,699 vs. $1,599 = 68% more

Nikon D3x(FF) vs. Nikon D2xs (crop) = $7,499 vs. $5,893 (at introduction) = 27% more

Canon 5D (FF) vs. Canon 50D (crop) = $ 2,699 vs, $1,129 = 139% more

Canon 1Dsiii (FF) vs. Canon 1Diii (crop) = $6,499 vs. $3,699 = 75% more

 

A 30% premium (if accurate) to get a FF sensor over cropped is pretty damned good by today's standards.

 

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Leica financials were released Aug. 6 - theoretical M9 release date is Sept. 9: That's 34 days (if it even matters). Eventually idiotic posts like barjohn's are going to result in internet libel laws. Who's to say he isn't trash-talking Leica in order to buy shares cheap? (Not ME! - but the SEC or Germany's equivalent might take notice).

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