A tale of caution

[scaryink]

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With the demise of Franke & Heidecke I really do worry about the long term support of the M8.

 

I understand that Leica spent somewhere around 50M Euros for the development of the S2 instead of on the bread and butter 35mm (or thereabouts ) format.

 

Clearly there is not enough demand for larger formats as the smaller size is producing similar pixel quantity (if not quality) to these kits. The HY6 is a great kit supported by a number of manufactures with plenty of room for upgrades, yet it has served as the nail in the coffin of a venerable European manufacturer.

 

There truly is plenty of room for the additional development of the RF digital format and no one is in a better position to take advantage than Leica. In hindsight it appears the best way to spend research dollars is where the bread and butter is.

 

I just can't see how the company is going to make enough revenue from a brand new system when retrenchment seems to be the wave of the future. I suspect digital MF is on its way out as being to expensive and not enough ROI for the end user. I mean the Mamiya is the dinosaur brought back to life by Phase one. It isnt close to the refinement of they HY6 but doesnt seem to make a differnce in sales.

 

A 5K rangefinder that is consistently developed and refined would seem to be a niche that would provide consistent - if limited growth and life to Leica.

 

RIP F&E - I hope Leica doesn't jump in the grave after them.

[dcuthbert]

As someone who shoots more MF than 35mm, especially after using a Hy6, it's a damn shame that this has happened.

 

The market for the high-end MF kits is slowing down. The day rate no longer covers the cost of the unit, let alone the kit that goes along with it. The last time I showed a client the cost of digital medium format back rental, they ran and muttered it was too much (although they wanted the best quality and asked for it)

 

I can pick up a Hassie H339 for around 7000 pounds (used obviously). The S2 has one hell of a time coming in and convincing many of us that it's good and deserves the cost. God knows, the client is no longer paying, so who's picking up the tab in a market with ever dwindling day rates and cost cutting?

 

Interesting times ahead I think.

[jaapv]

I do not know where you found the 50 million - it seems a bit unsubstantiated to me. But apart from that it is not just on the S2, fortunately. A large part is for R&D that benefits other future cameras. (sadly that includes the dead R10:o) It is basically building up digital skills that are needed in this age.

Anyway, for instance the electronic processing on the M9 will probably be the Maestro chip, with the attendant software and other electronics, the sensor technology can be put to use the M9 sensor, and there are probably a host of other things we cannot even think about.

[Overgaard]

With the demise of Franke & Heidecke I really do worry about the long term support of the M8.

 

I understand that Leica spent somewhere around 50M Euros for the development of the S2 instead of on the bread and butter 35mm (or thereabouts ) format.

 

Where does that figure come from?

[sfokevin]

Where does that figure come from?

 

He did stipulate "thereabouts" That could mean somewhere south of the border...

[fotografr]

I have a hard time accepting the 50M Euro sum, but I'm afraid I do agree about the very limited market for the S2. I don't see how Leica can possibly recover their investment--whatever it was. The money would have been far better spent getting a blockbuster M9 on the market. There is an extablished customer base for that product, whereas the base market for the S2 will have to be built from the ground up. In this economy, that will not be an easy task.

[sandymc]

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I understand that Leica spent somewhere around 50M Euros for the development of the S2 instead of on the bread and butter 35mm (or thereabouts ) format.

 

Well, I hope not. Because if that's true, back-of-the-envelope they are probably going to have to sell 3000-5000 S2's plus lens over say three years to get any kind of return. Maybe quite a lot more, depending on pricing, ratio of lenses to bodies, how much they spend on marketing, warranty repairs, etc. Compared to the MF market, with no customers with a current investment in lenses to bootstrap sales off, that's a big ask. Probably not impossible, but there's no room for error.

 

Sandy

[carstenw]

With the demise of Franke & Heidecke I really do worry about the long term support of the M8.

 

Yeah, they have a *lot* to do with each other. *cough*

 

Anyway, in spite of that non sequitur, I am optimistic about Leica's future with the S2. A certain amount of money has been set aside to develop it (please quote a source for the 50M number), and the project made fast progress, and is now apparently still on time and ready for announcement (at the end of July?) and release (September?).

 

The camera is aimed at a market that Leica estimates at 10000 units per year, and Leica hopes that the S2 will capture a two-digit percentage of that, i.e. 10%+. This seems quite reasonable, and even somewhat cautious, given that the S2 is aimed squarely at people who like working with DSLRs, but want more resolution and quality, without going to the weirdness and quirkiness that the current MF segment represent, i.e. an easy to learn and use solution in a familiar and loved format.

 

Honestly, I think that the market analysis that must have gone into this is top-notch, and the prospects, economy aside, looks bright to very bright.

 

Whether it manages to succeed is another question, but the idea sounds good, and the product looks good; one could ask for nothing more from a risky venture.

[scaryink]

Im sorry but have forgotten where this estimate came from. I believe it was from the LL forum. I understand that Leica has committed a significant amount of their resources to the project and that the company has had quite a bit of financial difficulty recently.

 

I suspect many potential customers will be gun shy after what has happened to Leaf and Rollei.

 

The market appears to have shifted dramatically and in unforeseeable ways. Its seems very few customers are willing to pay for the extra quality potential of MF digital. I don't think Leica was foolish when the S2 was conceived, it was perhaps just a bubble market that has clearly burst at this point.

[Printmaker]

A medium format camera that is smaller than a pro series Nikon or Canon, who knows maybe it will be a winner. At the very least they're bound to sell a few thousand cameras, especially if it is priced closer to Mamiya and certainly not above Hasselblad. As long as Leica can sell enough S2s to recoup their investment and not have to pass their losses on to M buyers, let them build their dream machine.

 

Tom

[stevelap]

You're living dangerously again Scaryink;), this is a thread prime for moving. Much of this is being discussed in the S2 forum, alternatively a general 'future of the Company' thread such as this could have been be posted in the Customer forum.

[Overgaard]

Im sorry but have forgotten where this estimate came from. I believe it was from the LL forum. I understand that Leica has committed a significant amount of their resources to the project and that the company has had quite a bit of financial difficulty recently.

 

I suspect many potential customers will be gun shy after what has happened to Leaf and Rollei.

 

The market appears to have shifted dramatically and in unforeseeable ways. Its seems very few customers are willing to pay for the extra quality potential of MF digital. I don't think Leica was foolish when the S2 was conceived, it was perhaps just a bubble market that has clearly burst at this point.

 

It's all speculations, then. As far as I can tell Leica is going up in sales and have cut away some of the 'dead products' such as my beloved R-line, both the past and the future R line.

 

Pro photographers may have to economize, but one thing they won't economize on is quality and speed. There's plenty of other things such as light, gadgets, cars and all to economize on.

[dcoombs]

You're living dangerously again Scaryink;), this is a thread prime for moving. Much of this is being discussed in the S2 forum, alternatively a general 'future of the Company' thread such as this could have been be posted in the Customer forum.

 

That's for sure. There is a thread on the S2 sub-forum dedicated to speculation about its pricing, and there are over 500 posts on it now. There is not much new to add here, and its connection with the M8 is tenuous at best.

 

Doug

[waileong]

This is exactly the problem Leica has to overcome. But it's also exactly the reason why Leica has to take this bet.

 

The problem Leica has to overcome is the mindset people have-- that the S2 is a "large format", ie larger than 35 mm camera, hence the market must surely be limited because 35 mm is already so good.

 

The truth is that the S2 chip is definitely smaller than a full-frame 645, and somewhat smaller than other medium format sensors. But it's definitely larger than a 35mm sensor.

 

So it's not really that "large" format.

 

But quality should be nearly as good as a medium format camera, while the size and weight should be much lesser than comparable medium format cameras such as Hassy H3's.

 

In fact, it should compete with the Canon and Nikon pro models for weight and size.

 

So this brings us to the reason why they've bet the company.

 

They can't grow in the rangefinder space. No doubt there'll be an M9 but how can it be appreciably better than the M8? It can't go full-frame unlike 35 mm SLR's. Anything else Leica can do (eg go to 15MP) would be just incremental.

 

They can't grow in the 35mm SLR space either, autofocus rules and the R lenses don't cut it.

 

They need something to take on the likes of Canon and Nikon, so it has to be something new, not just another me-too full-frame 35 mm SLR.

 

Hence, the S2.

 

A product pinpointed at the market niche between medium format and 35 mm digital.

 

Will it work? Will people bite? We will know soon.

 

To me the idea is brilliant. And I'd even go further with a trade-in program, ie give a rebate for those who trade in a Leica M camera/lens in good condition (or even not so good condition) and make some more money on the side selling the the traded-in stuff after reconditioning with warranty. Kind of like the pre-owned BMW program.

[AlanG]

...To me the idea is brilliant. And I'd even go further with a trade-in program, ie give a rebate for those who trade in a Leica M camera/lens in good condition (or even not so good condition) and make some more money on the side selling the the traded-in stuff after reconditioning with warranty. Kind of like the pre-owned BMW program.

 

So here's my down payment for an S2 system.

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[LeicaMSeattle]

I'd have to sell off my M lenses and use the C2S for down payment

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[Fotomiguel]

S2 is going to be the best professional camera in the world. Size and controls of a reflex and the quality of a medium format plus ¡¡¡incredible leica lenses!!!!. If I were professional I would be longing for this camera at any price. For me leica is going in the right direction. The head of a photographer can't resist to have the best camera possible and Leica knows it.

[erl]

This thread has been moved from the M8 section for the obvious reason that it is not about the M8 specifically.

[jaapv]

I disagree. It should have been moved to the "expensive German Cars" section of the forum.

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Hallo,

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[stevelap]

Thanks Erl.