Hessenpark News: Official - No R10: no FF M9 (yet)

[jrc]

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A Panasonic R would make some sense, if for no other reason that to allow Panasonic to sell higher-end bodies to a few tens of thousands of people who already have R glass. Panasonic would simply have to scale up their G1 electronics and sensor. Nobody who uses an M will pay the slightest attention to this, but believe me, the G1 EVIL isn't all that bad; in darker conditions, people braver than I might even venture the argument that it's better than a rangefinder, because of the boost.

 

Nikon, IMHO, would also be a possible body-donor -- they've done it in the past, and not so long ago, with both Kodak and Fuji. The idea would be to kick the body price up enough that a new R, with R glass, isn't really competing with Nikon DSLRs. If you positioned it halfway between an S and a D3x, at ~$11,000 or ~$12,000, I doubt that you'd do any damage with to Nikon or the S2, and Nikon would sell a lot of additional bodies for a few years.

 

Micro 4/3 could be (probably is) the Leica M of the 21st century -- good enough for almost any publication purposes, short of the top-end magazines, and **small.** Just as the 30s and 40s Leicas were a step down in quality compared to the best 4x5 systems of the time, but were good enough, the M4/34 are a step down from full frame DSLRs, but generally, good enough -- good enough for all family photos, most photojournalism, etc. The new Olympus will tell the tale here...it looks almost pocketable, and with a range of Olympus-quality primes and a couple of zooms, will be an interesting system.

 

I would note that Pentax has announced a 1.5x crop camera, the K7, full weather seals, great line of lenses,that's not much bigger than the current Panasonic G1.

 

Interesting times.

 

JC

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[delander †]

 

Nikon, IMHO, would also be a possible body-donor -- they've done it in the past, and not so long ago, with both Kodak and Fuji. The idea would be to kick the body price up enough that a new R, with R glass, isn't really competing with Nikon DSLRs. If you positioned it halfway between an S and a D3x, at ~$11,000 or ~$12,000, I doubt that you'd do any damage with to Nikon or the S2, and Nikon would sell a lot of additional bodies for a few years.

 

 

JC

 

 

Yes but Nikon never gave Fuji or Kodak access to a proper top of the range camera body.

I dont see them doing it for Leica and in anycase it would rub against Panasonic's relationship with Leica.

 

Jeff

[R10dreamer]

haha, it is so funny how you easily misunderstand it. It is nothing personal but if you want to talk about photos, stay outside this thread and check Photo forum section instead.

 

I simply called your long post as ribberish because you did discredit M cameras which are main card of Leica.

 

How do you expect Leica challenge C & N & S in DSLR market when people care about pixel numbers? No, it is better offer unique products instead like Evil, M RF, s2 etc.

 

I don't want to talk about photos. I just wanted to see some of your photos. I always like to reference something besides talk.

[SteveYork]

No R10 sure explains why Leica liquidated all their R lenses back in February/March. If I had a heavy investment in modern R stuff I would be awful ticked.

[SteveYork]

Leica should've been developing an R10 these last couple of years instead of fiddling with the S2. I think the market for an R10 would have been greater, by a fair amount. I would be surprised if Leica sells 10,000 S2 unites annually. Maybe they'll sell at a loss, like the Leicaflex SL2.

[SteveYork]

clearly it will cause bitterness but trashing the R system and not further developing the M sytem is a very sound business decision.

unfortunately they have concentrated all their resources into another economic disaster-in-the-make, the S2.

they should rather concentrate on lenses for canikon, pentax, sony..etc.

peter

 

This is exactly how I see it. S2 = looming disaster. They have concentrated their resources on the R10. And why can't they make Nikon and Canon mount lenses?

[SteveYork]

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I'm disappointed to. I can only assume it's a result of the state of the economy and their projected sales figures due to that. I'd guess the R10 development was at such an early stage of development that it could easily be cancelled. The S2 on the other hand was too far down the line to consider cancelling.

 

I'd expect Leica resources to focus on the M system once the S2 is out of the way. That's their bread and butter system after all.

 

Maybe I'm being cruel, but it does speak to incredible mismanagement, maybe not the current folks, but whoever decided to develop the S2 i leu of the R10. They'll get a few folks buying into the S2, because no R10 will come, but they're losing a whole lot of DSLR market. One of the strengths of Leica was customer loyalty. There's a lot of folks w/ R lenses who would've purchased a Leica DSLR. Which comes back to my first point, why develop the S2 first. Not the smartest move.

[SteveYork]

I sum this up as such:

 

1)

First priority of Leica now, is to launch S2 with a target volume of 10.000 units. .

 

As the cliche' goes, 'give me some of what they're smoking.'

[mooky]

Leica could simply be suffering the hardship of a bad world economy and the timing of product development that only a healthy economy would allow it to prosper in. I'm disappointed as well - but I'm not ready to question what has happened or second guess something that I have very little information on.

 

It is possible that they saw an opening another way that will be easier and more unique than just another FF digital AF camera - or maybe it is the economy - I am hoping the former. Because I really don't want to see another R body co-opted with another company. Or see them produce lenses in C or N mounts; in the business world of today, the fact is that some companies will not make it through with the programs they were proceeding with, or make it at all.

 

I like the idea of the S2 - it's an intriguing idea that is almost here, so for the S2 and Leica, it appears to be 'full speed ahead - damn the torpedoes!' It would be a real drag if they fail because of a really, really, bad global economy when they were almost back with new product.

[paulmoore]

Leica should've been developing an R10 these last couple of years instead of fiddling with the S2. I think the market for an R10 would have been greater, by a fair amount. I would be surprised if Leica sells 10,000 S2 unites annually. Maybe they'll sell at a loss, like the Leicaflex SL2.

 

while I am sure you have your reasons for thinking as you do, I can't help but think it comes from a retro perspective..Maybe your other camera is a digital but from your own list I see no digital leica gear.. You may not be aware that Lecia history is steeped in innovation, and while yes, they could have developed a R10 instead of a S2, they took the less pedistrian path of innovation and developed what nobody else has.. a non cmos, larger than 35mmFF new format camera with digitally insprired fast AF lenses and optional leaf shutters..to name the first things that come to mind..

instead of playing at nikanon's game they trumped them. Risk? sure.. but I woud rather be shooing in 6 months with a S2 than a FFdslr..period.

regarding the numbers..I am not in that end of the business so have no idea how many units will be sold..but I for one think they made a smart, creative move..nobody new what this economy was going to be like 2 or3 years ago wihen they started down this path..it was bold regardless. I think a FFdslr would have been a tougher sell with such a crowded market. I have gotten good use out of my old r lenses and I will continue to use them and the newer ones I have bought..but it is old school and not the future.. some here have suggested that Leica just drop all but m lenses and work on new lenses for nikcan..I hope not.

before I learned of the S2 I was looking for a larger than 35 camera..but hoping it would be non 2:3, I did not expect to see such a bold leap forward in size.. so I hope they think about making this next reflex option a supersized 3:4 camera that the legacy r lenses would work on as well as new AF optics. I am not a fan of the evf but am open to seeing what they think is a good solution as it would not be my main camera system.

[Gentleman Villain]

Leica will not attempt to muscle in on the DSLR market, as they see it a a sure way to commit harakiri.

 

 

That's good news....It seems the folks at Leica are on the right track lately. 35mm DSLR users are not really driven by a commitment to high IQ. They (both professional and hobbyist) are generally motivated by practicality. The IQ advantages of a Leica DSLR over a Canon or Nikon will be too subtle for the majority of 35mm DSLR shooters to understand and they won't spend the money. In general, the vast majority of 35mm DSLR shooters are married to mediocrity. Sorry if that's offensive to some people...but it's just the truth from the POV of selling a camera.

 

On the other hand, I've found that M series and rangefinder users in general are some of the most sophisticated camera buyers I've ever encountered. There are plenty of hobbyists and weekend warriors in these forums that have a better understanding of IQ than many people that make their living with a camera. The M series should continue to do very well for a long time to come.....

 

There is a huge hole in the medium format market for a high quality camera system. Hasselblad and Mamiya are nice....but there is plenty of room for improvement. The S2 has a good chance in this market but it might take 5-10 years to really take off....

 

Any good business owner knows that his core audience is the most important to keep happy...I'm sure that the folks at Leica have gotta be close to a FF M8 upgrade in order to keep their base happy. But they would have to keep it quiet....that would make excellent business sense....and bust out news as a surprise right around when the S2 is launched (so that M users won't feel neglected by the release of the S). That would be my guess anyway. I htink that that the release of the M8.2 and it's basic upgrades was a good indication that the next generation digital M was going to be the real deal.

 

Just one man's opinion... not like the forum needed another one LOL

[stunsworth]

Maybe I'm being cruel, but it does speak to incredible mismanagement, maybe not the current folks, but whoever decided to develop the S2 i leu of the R10.

 

With hindsight it may do, but remember these decisions were made before the economy bombed, or ever that there were any indications that it would. So I think it's necessary to think about what their thinking was.

 

The R&D for the S2 was supposed to trickle down to the R10. I'd guess their thinking was that no SLR system was going to sell in huge numbers - the M have been Leica's bread and butter line for decades - so they'd introduce the S2 before the R10 because the profit on an S2 sale would be higher than on an R10. They'd be hoping - still are I'd guess - that the S2 will sell in reasonable numbers because it occupies a niche that isn't currently occupied by anyone else. Namely a weather proofed, larger than SLR sensor, in an SLR body, coupled with an outstanding set of lenses.

[sijbrand]

I have tried a G1 and did not like the EVF, but that's not to say what Leica will eventually roll out will be vastly superior. And the shorter registration distance afforded by the lack of a mirror could mean fast and very compact high quality lenses; couple that with a TRUELY near silent shutter (ala Rolleiflex)....could be a winner.

 

I am disappointed in a way about the R10, but OTOH, I think Leica may benefit far more from a unique photographic tool than going head-to-head with Canon and Nikon with yet another DSLR.

[carstenw]

In spite of what the current outlook and projections are, I suspect that releasing the S2 first is a good decision on several levels. Not only does it place Leica back in the limelight and as a cutting-edge manufacturer with novel ideas, it also allows the technology to be scaled down and implemented in other cameras.

 

If Leica had released an R10 at this time, not only would they have met with massive skepticism, due to the sordid DMR tales, but many have already jumped boat to Nikon D3/D700/D3x or Sony A900, etc., so the remaining existing market is quite small compared even to the small number of R users in the DMR's heyday.

 

No matter what Leica has said, I suspect that releasing a new R will always be an option, if the S2 does well, the M9 is released successfully, and the economy pulls up. They just can't make a camera that only satisfies the faithful, but must come up with ideas to bring in lots of new customers. Once the S2 is in the marketplace, the R10 could be developed at lower R&D cost.

[hamey]

Actually I'am not surprised by this news.

After Leica proposed the S system I had the feeling that Leica will drop the R system.

 

I for one have NO interest in any Leica Digital camera M,S or whatever.

For me I will continue to use my beloved R system with Film as it was intended for.

If I have diffilculty in obtaining slide film over the next few years then I will seek an alternative Reflex.

Most likely it will be a Canon as I love my little G9, simply a gem.

 

The sad news from all this is I don't think Leica is going to survive and I doubt if the S will save it.

 

So...... Thank You Leica, for the last 38 years it has been a privilege for me in using your "R" System.

 

Cheers for the R.

 

Ken.

[tofsla]

Canon's camera division is more than twice the size of Nikon's and five times as profitable. Canon has their own sensor (well, sort of). Nikon buys one off the shelf. Most likely a version of the Sony sensor. Most likely, both sensors are developed with hidden Japanese governmental subsidies. Most likely, neither of them are allowed to share this sensor technology with companies outside Japan. (Many - mostly Americans with no insight in international trade, except for the info that CNN will give you, will now call this bull***. I am prepared to discuss this anytime, anywere, but not here. But first, read all you can of all the press statements and verbal info in the annual reports of - particularly - Nikon). Zeiss do have a Japanese subsidiary. A smart thing.

 

Mostly ignorant people in $1 shirts from Phuket, who have no inside into fabrication process, like to make remarks like this. All current Nikon cameras (D90/D500, D3/D700) except D3X, use Nikon own sensor, fabricated by Sony. Ah, and I am American btw...

[rosuna]

Actually I think Nikon is now designing their own sensors in house and outsource the production to Sony. But back in the D100 days I'm pretty sure these were Sony designs.

 

That is not exactly true...

[rosuna]

I think Leica is rethinking their entire portfolio...

 

I expect: 1) a new M camera; 2) the S2 camera...

 

I don't expect: 1) a new reflex (mirror based) system for 35mm format; 2) any 4/3 or micro 4/3 product.

 

... but there will be more things... I would bet...

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[wattsy]

Yes but Nikon never gave Fuji or Kodak access to a proper top of the range camera body.

I dont see them doing it for Leica and in anycase it would rub against Panasonic's relationship with Leica.

 

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Kodak marketed a number of (very expensive) digital bodies using the (then top-line) F5 body. In any case, I agree that any future SLR/EVF solution will be coming from the relationship with Panasonic (and have virtually nothing to do with the S2 project). There are no other potential partners and, in any case, Leica still owes Panasonic €20m (a loan that matures in 2011 according to the last published annual report) so I can't imagine them going anywhere else for an R digital solution.

[SteveYork]

With hindsight it may do, but remember these decisions were made before the economy bombed, or ever that there were any indications that it would. So I think it's necessary to think about what their thinking was.

 

The R&D for the S2 was supposed to trickle down to the R10. I'd guess their thinking was that no SLR system was going to sell in huge numbers - the M have been Leica's bread and butter line for decades - so they'd introduce the S2 before the R10 because the profit on an S2 sale would be higher than on an R10. They'd be hoping - still are I'd guess - that the S2 will sell in reasonable numbers because it occupies a niche that isn't currently occupied by anyone else. Namely a weather proofed, larger than SLR sensor, in an SLR body, coupled with an outstanding set of lenses.

 

Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but I wasn't I wasn't the only one to be aghast when the S2 with its' projected price was announced, and that was before the economy really rolled over badly. A company needs to market items (1) people can afford to purchase and (2) people feel they need (whether that be actual or subjective). The S2 is far too costly for the average hobbyist to justify and is far in excess of most needs. It's really aimed at a very small market, and I fail to see how that small market will generate 10,000 sales a year.

 

The S2 is essentially new market terrain for Leica, the area of MF. Why would they enter a new market, while ignoring an existing customer base, albeit one shrinking every year? One of the reason R sales were so bad is because they didn't have a DSLR. Now it's only speculation on my part, but if Leica marketed a DSLR that was somewhat competitive, a lot of former R users who are now shooting Nikons and Canons would come back.

 

Maybe Leica has decided they can't compete in the DSLR market?