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Future upgrade cycles of Leica M's


macjonny1

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Yes-but the production capacity will go up as soon as they move to Wetzlar, especially if they keep the current facility operational.

when I visited Solms in November these were the numbers leica told me. from the "daily goal" board in the dressing room next to the camera manufacture it said: 50 M, 10 MM, 2 MP/M7 is the daily goal. they've been producing the M since about august, thats when they seized the M9 production.

 

what I dont know is whether these are the waiting lists but my dealer told me many customers were shopping crazy at the leica stand on the photokina. 25000€ orders werent so unusual.

 

for the photokina orders it would take 11000/50 = 220 workdays, if we assume about 22 workdays per month (just guessed...) it takes 10 months, so these orders would be done by end of may 2013.

 

gotta admit that I'm a bit sceptical about that info. just from the numbers it sounds a bit weird. leica sold roundabout 25000 M9/M9-P from 2009 till they seized production in 2012. not that much actually. 11000 orders from like a week would be a bit crazy, compared to the M9 statistics. (the 25000 comes from leica too. people there had to guess. I was far off at around 100.000 :rolleyes:)

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Hmmmmm.... production figures are rather surprising....

 

I wonder who are going to be the lucky 400 or so who get one of the 'already made' in March......

 

...... and then there will be a depressingly slow trickle.... as per usual.....

 

...... the Wetzlar move was scheduled for spring (*) and 'doubling production' .... eventually... so I cannot see us being deluged in M's for some time to come...

 

* ... can't find any up to date info on this timing though..... this is a quote from a long while ago...

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A significant part of M8 and M9 camera production took place in Portugal. Regarded as a basket-case as recently 2006 when the attitude was that Leica Portugal would have to take on other business to survive, Leica has shown faith in their Portuguese arm and are building a new factory there as well. Something like half of Leica's employees are (or were when figures were last published) working in Portugal.

 

How much of the M is made there is anyone's guess.

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Yes-but the production capacity will go up as soon as they move to Wetzlar, especially if they keep the current facility operational.

 

I agree, but the critical time of production is still under the old conditions of about 50 per day which is not enough for the current demand. they move over around november 2013. thats 14 months after photokina and 15 months after the start of the production of the M240

 

as far as I know the final steps are made in Germany so the final product comes from Solms, so the production per day seems like unchanged no matter how many plants there are in portugal

 

lets hope that many people who preordered for the new M are abandoning the thoughts so others get them. I'll watch the whole process of delivery. dont want it anyway :D

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as far as I know the final steps are made in Germany so the final product comes from Solms, so the production per day seems like unchanged no matter how many plants there are in portugal

The point was that Leica is expanding their production capacity both in Germany (namely in Wetzlar) and in Portugal, implying that they will be manufacturing more Ms than they do now.

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...

gotta admit that I'm a bit sceptical about that info. just from the numbers it sounds a bit weird. leica sold roundabout 25000 M9/M9-P from 2009 till they seized production in 2012. not that much actually. ...

 

I share your scepticism.

 

When the M9 came out in 2009 there was a video interview with Mr. Daniel, where he explained that their aim had been "about 10.000" M8 a year and they fulfilled it. So one can assume that some 30.000 M8+M8.2 have been produced.

 

For the M9 Leica spokesmen said several times that they sold the expected number of the whole lifetime (30.000?) during one year. Even if 90.000 M9+M9P would seem too high I'd guess they made around 60.000. Perhaps the number of 25.000 is true for the M9P alone.

 

Leica is very reserved with numbers and has some tradition of Potemkinism (when Emperor Hiorohito visted the Leitz works at Wetzlar they showed him only the IIIf production, though the M3 production was already running at full speed...) So I don't believe they would reveal any actual production numbers to visiting groups.

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I agree, but the critical time of production is still under the old conditions of about 50 per day which is not enough for the current demand. they move over around november 2013. thats 14 months after photokina and 15 months after the start of the production of the M240

 

as far as I know the final steps are made in Germany so the final product comes from Solms, so the production per day seems like unchanged no matter how many plants there are in portugal

 

lets hope that many people who preordered for the new M are abandoning the thoughts so others get them. I'll watch the whole process of delivery. dont want it anyway :D

Missing the point - the final product will becoming from Wetzlar, not Solms.

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I for one am looking forward to the speculation on the next evolution, I'm still hoping for what I wanted and didn't get :

 

1. Physical size of the M6 and weight

2. A beautifully engineered optical viewfinder that includes electronic support and a zoom so you can have 18-90 in view without the size compromise of the fixed viewfinder, alos one that allows easy adjustment for back/front focus

3. ISO 2-3 stops better

4. CCD sensor or something more organic and unique and has 15-16 stop dynamic range

5. Plus the expected processing/battery/speed implements

 

Okay it was a big ask :rolleyes:

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I don't mind if delivery is slow I'm going to wait until the "pro" version comes out and pay $1000 more for one without a red dot!

 

I never thought I would be thinking along these lines as well.

 

But, I just paid that much extra to get a Monochrom - aesthetics were part of the equation: that matt black chrome just absorbs all light like any inky black night . A different league than the shiny black paint that scratches or chips off just by looking at it ; and lets not mention the new even larger glossy red dot.

As a primary motivation, I also realized that 90% of the photo books I buy and love are all B&W portfolios.

 

The MM files are so malleable it's breathtaking.

 

At some point later in the year there is bound to be a 100 years Leica engraving and probably a more discrete MP-240 variant next year. I'm no longer in a rush to get one.

 

 

 

--------

"It's the weird colour scheme that freaks me. Every time you try to operate one of these weird black controls, which are labeled in black on a black background, a small black light lights up black to let you know you've done it."

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One thing that seems to be constant is that dealers constantly exaggerate numbers, inside knowledge, and delivery estimates.

 

Yea some dealers may have 500 pre-orders for the M, but they won't sell even half of those cameras to people on the current list because its reasonable to assume that many of the people on current dealer pre order lists are also on other dealer pre-order lists too.

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I for one am looking forward to the speculation on the next evolution, I'm still hoping for what I wanted and didn't get :

 

1. Physical size of the M6 and weight

2. A beautifully engineered optical viewfinder that includes electronic support and a zoom so you can have 18-90 in view without the size compromise of the fixed viewfinder, alos one that allows easy adjustment for back/front focus

3. ISO 2-3 stops better

4. CCD sensor or something more organic and unique and has 15-16 stop dynamic range

5. Plus the expected processing/battery/speed implements

 

Okay it was a big ask :rolleyes:

 

Indeed it was; the body's thicker because there's a minimum thickness of the sensor/electronics/LCD display/cover glass package which has to sit behind the focal plane; Leica already disguise that by mounting the lens flange forward from the body where on a film M it's flush with the body. I believe there were significant issues getting the rangefinder coupling to work accurately by moving the lens mount even further forwards.

 

In a world where the optical viewfinder/rangefinder will likely become marginalised over time, I don't think there will be any appetite to develop it further. Leica made next to no improvements during its heyday so I can't see them doing anything in the future.

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Do we think the S range will move the CMOS ?

 

I haven't really followed this, but given the improved ISO with the new S, I would be interested to know.

 

I've been thinking about this. Of course we will soon get a Leica S model with CMOS sensor.

The interesting question is whether we simultaneously can also expect an SE model, - lets say at half price? ;)

ME am, according to Leica intended as an affordable entry to the M system for people with limited economical resources.

When development costs of the S system now probably is almost recouped, it must be of interest for Leica to attract as many of us as possible over to invest in new S lenses.

This might be an interesting discussion, but moved on to another part of the forum.

Is there anyone who takes the lead? :)

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I think we will see slower upgrade cycles. Both with the japanese brands and of course also with leica. In the days of film, four years was considered to be a quick turnaround.

 

Today, there is less to gain by offering the latest and greatest camera, because of a number of factors:

Most cameras have "enough" megapixels for most peoples needs. How many megapixels do you need to post on facebook? How many consumers make poster size enlargements? Also, increasing the pixel count gets increasingly hard technologically, provided the ISO performance expectations of most customers (at least a decent 6400 seems to be the norm unless you trade ISO for pixel count like in the D800). Most cameras also do video, live view etc, so that is not such a big selling point either.

 

There is also a lot less money in digital cameras, because of bad economy in america (biggest market) and in japan (biggest producer), and because most people today already own a digital camera that suits their needs perfectly.

Competition between brands have squeezed profit margins, leaving less money for research, development and marketing.

 

All in all, the market has shrinked and the technology has "matured". This translates into longer upgrade cycles, in my opinion.

 

It would surprise me if we see less than 3 years between major M model upgrades. Probably more. However, I do agree that smaller updates might be introduced, but I doubt it will be often.

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