S4 speculations

[BernardC]

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Sure, there's always the argument that AI will take over everything, and therefore it's pointless for anybody to do anything creative, or for any company to release any new product.

We have all heard that before.

My earliest exposure to this train of thought was from a photography professor who thought that CD-Rom would make art obsolete. I'm not sure he knew what CD-Rom was. 

 

Back to our chickens: I'm sure that Leica has done the maths to figure-out if there's a market for an "S4." They have all the data they need, and 100 years of experience with similar product decisions. 

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[Pieter12]

3 hours ago, BernardC said:

Sure, there's always the argument that AI will take over everything, and therefore it's pointless for anybody to do anything creative, or for any company to release any new product.

We have all heard that before.

My earliest exposure to this train of thought was from a photography professor who thought that CD-Rom would make art obsolete. I'm not sure he knew what CD-Rom was. 

 

Back to our chickens: I'm sure that Leica has done the maths to figure-out if there's a market for an "S4." They have all the data they need, and 100 years of experience with similar product decisions. 

It did not help them with the M5...it almost ruined the company.

[Stef63]

53 minutes ago, Pieter12 said:

It did not help them with the M5...it almost ruined the company.

And again in 2005 they were only days from insolvency. It was Andreas Kaufmann who saved Leica back then.  So when he states that creating a new medium format model is difficult, I’m sure he is aware of the financial risks involved.  Let’s see what the future brings.

 

[pgh]

4 hours ago, BernardC said:

Sure, there's always the argument that AI will take over everything, and therefore it's pointless for anybody to do anything creative, or for any company to release any new product.

We have all heard that before.

My earliest exposure to this train of thought was from a photography professor who thought that CD-Rom would make art obsolete. I'm not sure he knew what CD-Rom was. 

 

Back to our chickens: I'm sure that Leica has done the maths to figure-out if there's a market for an "S4." They have all the data they need, and 100 years of experience with similar product decisions. 

I didn’t say it would totally take over. But it is fundamentally changing the market for images at a scale that is novel. We can learn from the past but it is no guarantee and only will have similarities at best. I’m not making any claims about total obsoletion, but it would be folly to claim that digital media (the CD-ROM) didn’t fundamentally change the world of art. No, it didn’t make it obsolete, but it was part of a massive change - your professor wasn’t fully wrong. Maybe just not parsing the subtleties enough. 

I have no idea what sort of market research Leica has. But the M has a broad appeal - it is small, it is jewelry like for many buyers (seriously), and while expensive, it is not a car. It is a popular culture status symbol to some extent. It’s also a photographic tool for most people on the forum, but there are a lot of M’s in circulation outside this user base.

The S series offers none of that stuff. It is a bulky body with specifically professional uses and so far the cost is the sort of thing that most photographers will have to finance it to get it and need work to pay it off, like they so often have with Phase One (who is doing great as a company right now, correct? /s). Hey, if Leica have decided they can sell enough S cameras to wealthy amateurs who want to make huge prints and operate a home studio for the fun of it then by all means. Or if they’ve decided they want to do it and have such a surplus from M sales that it doesn’t need to be profitable, again, I’d love to see it.  

[Stuart Richardson]

I think the biggest challenge and opportunity for Leica with the S is to take it out of the niche, and try to make it appeal more broadly, to professionals, high end amateurs, and maybe even to luxury buyers (in a way that the Hasselblad does a bit). They are in a good position to do this, as they have, other than a few niche areas, the most comprehensive lineup of native mount lenses. A well designed mirrorless S camera will be able to natively use everything from TL lenses, to M mount, the massive range of L mount lenses from Leica, Sigma and Panasonic and others, as well as the old S lenses and future S lenses. No other camera can offer that level of native lens flexibility. My guess is that some of the difficulty is making sure that the new S will be able to use all of these lenses well, and I am sure there are challenges in making the EVF work perfectly with data streams from the full sensor, half the sensor and small sections of the sensor, making the AF and power delivery work for all the options, and trying to balanced the handling and interface so that it can handle the very high level of versatility that a camera like this can employ, then do that all again with video as well. 

There is also the question of the sensor they will use. The current 100mp medium format sensor that most use is long in the tooth, and Leica was burnt before for using older sensors in more modern cameras, and I am sure they want to avoid announcing a camera with a sensor that is obsolete almost immediately upon release. They have also chosen different sensors than Fuji and Hasselblad for all the S cameras, as well as a different aspect ratio. My hope is they use 4/3 for the MF camera, but they have almost always used 35mm so I think we can probably expect that again.

I am sure they are also trying to talk to their dealers and beta testers about price, and what is tolerable in the current market, trying to find a balance that is low enough that their dealers will stock it and try to sell it, but high enough that they can keep their profits sufficiently high. And of course this is not even talking about the lenses. The current SL and S lenses set the bar staggeringly high, and I imagine they will try to deliver at least 2 lenses on day one, probably 3.

Launching a camera like this cannot be easy. Just putting something out there for a decent price and with a lot of utility is perhaps not so challenging, but given Leica's market position and reputation, I assume they see it such that they really need to get this right, or just not do it at all. My personal hope is that they will take their handling and ergonomic cues more from the S camera than the SL3, but try to provide a camera at a competitive enough price and accentuate its versatility such that they can bring in quality focused creatives, fashion photographers and high end amateurs willing to pay a bit more to get a very well made, ergonomically smart do-everything camera. One that they can put M lenses on for travel or daily walk around, SL lenses for extreme telephotos and wides and zoom flexability, or S lenses for high end landscape or editorial work.

 

[Jeff S]

Plus, Leica has already experienced an S system launch, only to have Hasselblad and Fuji (actually Pentax first) undercut them significantly in price and still offer an appealing product to a range of customers. At some point, Hasselblad will likely produce an X3D (or X2Dii), with even more capability. Fuji will also step up. As Stuart writes, this will be a balancing act between price and tech/features, in a market that is now far more competitive than years ago.  Let’s hope the S4 at least gets a joystick before the next Hasselblad, and keeps its lead in weather sealing.  The X system bodies already set a high bar for ergonomics, not so much in AF.

[bags27]

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Am I the only one who thinks the Leica 007, which I lamentably don't own, and the Sigma DP-2 Merrill, which I happily do, still can't be beat (even by my Blad 907x 50c)? (except maybe by my Blad SWC 903, which is just a lot more fun?)

I don't use technical cameras (wish I did), but that's the only place, besides maybe Phase One and there mainly as part of a technical kit, where, when it comes to digital, I can see anything else beyond a marginal difference. 

Otherwise, astonishingly large sums of money chasing such marginal differences.

Edited May 30 by bags27

[LeicaR10]

Stuart Richardson,   You are not too far off from what know so far.  The dealers have made input with their concerns, mostly about price, availability and resale value.  All I can say, best get your black AMEX card ready for action.   r/ Mark

[Stuart Richardson]

I have never even seen a black Amex card, so I guess I will have to wait for you all to get one and get tired of it. Or I suppose I could just buy the strap and sleep with it under my pillow.

[BernardC]

17 hours ago, pgh said:

I’m not making any claims about total obsoletion, but it would be folly to claim that digital media (the CD-ROM) didn’t fundamentally change the world of art. No, it didn’t make it obsolete, but it was part of a massive change - your professor wasn’t fully wrong.

You don't get a pass for being "not fully wrong" when prophesying the end of the world. You are either correct, or you are guessing that some (unspecified) change will happen.

[Stef63]

 

Let’s also face the reality: the digital camera market (FF, crop, medium format, etc.) has declined by around 80% over the past 20 years. So when Andreas Kaufmann invested €60 million in the then almost-bankrupt Leica, the market landscape was very different.

That investment wasn’t just a rescue operation—it became the financial foundation that enabled the development of the S and helped the M system into the digital era.

Fast-forward to today, the entire global medium format market is estimated at just $160 million. Leica’s presence being zero. 

Beyond the technical challenges of creating a compelling product in this niche, there’s also the question whether it can secure a sustainable share of this relatively small market. In that context, the financial risk of developing a new medium format platform today is far from negligible and different from 20 years ago. 

I would, of course, applaud Leica for daring to create an S4—especially as a symbol of innovation and ambition. But not if doing so would come at the risk of impacting the long-term stability of the company or the continued evolution of its core product lines.  But I guess (hope) Leica learned their lessons. 

That said, I’d be more than happy to continue using my S3 and S lenses—alongside M and SL gear—without ever seeing an S4, as long as Leica commits to keeping the S-line fully serviceable for many years to come.

Edited May 31 by Stef63

[irenedp]

14 hours ago, bags27 said:

Am I the only one who thinks the Leica 007, which I lamentably don't own, and the Sigma DP-2 Merrill, which I happily do, still can't be beat (even by my Blad 907x 50c)? (except maybe by my Blad SWC 903, which is just a lot more fun?)

I don't use technical cameras (wish I did), but that's the only place, besides maybe Phase One and there mainly as part of a technical kit, where, when it comes to digital, I can see anything else beyond a marginal difference. 

Otherwise, astonishingly large sums of money chasing such marginal differences.

I use a Phase back, and recently acquired a Cambo WRS with a tilt Rodenstock ... a pretty large expense even if all was negotiated and slightly used. Yes, it is fantastic, but only for the few people who do the kind of work that I do. It is heavy and cumbersome, and requires practice and skill.  Otherwise, a Hassel or a Fuji are more than enough... And a mirrorless F9 or a Sony A7R5 would be very close contenders.

[Doc_P]

vor 16 Stunden schrieb Stuart Richardson:

I think the biggest challenge and opportunity for Leica with the S is to take it out of the niche, and try to make it appeal more broadly, to professionals, high end amateurs, and maybe even to luxury buyers (in a way that the Hasselblad does a bit). They are in a good position to do this, as they have, other than a few niche areas, the most comprehensive lineup of native mount lenses. A well designed mirrorless S camera will be able to natively use everything from TL lenses, to M mount, the massive range of L mount lenses from Leica, Sigma and Panasonic and others, as well as the old S lenses and future S lenses. No other camera can offer that level of native lens flexibility. My guess is that some of the difficulty is making sure that the new S will be able to use all of these lenses well, and I am sure there are challenges in making the EVF work perfectly with data streams from the full sensor, half the sensor and small sections of the sensor, making the AF and power delivery work for all the options, and trying to balanced the handling and interface so that it can handle the very high level of versatility that a camera like this can employ, then do that all again with video as well. 

There is also the question of the sensor they will use. The current 100mp medium format sensor that most use is long in the tooth, and Leica was burnt before for using older sensors in more modern cameras, and I am sure they want to avoid announcing a camera with a sensor that is obsolete almost immediately upon release. They have also chosen different sensors than Fuji and Hasselblad for all the S cameras, as well as a different aspect ratio. My hope is they use 4/3 for the MF camera, but they have almost always used 35mm so I think we can probably expect that again.

I am sure they are also trying to talk to their dealers and beta testers about price, and what is tolerable in the current market, trying to find a balance that is low enough that their dealers will stock it and try to sell it, but high enough that they can keep their profits sufficiently high. And of course this is not even talking about the lenses. The current SL and S lenses set the bar staggeringly high, and I imagine they will try to deliver at least 2 lenses on day one, probably 3.

Launching a camera like this cannot be easy. Just putting something out there for a decent price and with a lot of utility is perhaps not so challenging, but given Leica's market position and reputation, I assume they see it such that they really need to get this right, or just not do it at all. My personal hope is that they will take their handling and ergonomic cues more from the S camera than the SL3, but try to provide a camera at a competitive enough price and accentuate its versatility such that they can bring in quality focused creatives, fashion photographers and high end amateurs willing to pay a bit more to get a very well made, ergonomically smart do-everything camera. One that they can put M lenses on for travel or daily walk around, SL lenses for extreme telephotos and wides and zoom flexability, or S lenses for high end landscape or editorial work.

 

Stuart, Thanks a lot for this concise review/summary which nails it!

The platform concept - one S4 to cover all the marvellous Leica lenses - is fascinating. If Leica realises the S4 - lets wait and see -, this body will probably my last body acquisition (68 years old), maybe with an new S4 Apo Macro Summicron 120...

Edited May 31 by Doc_P

[Doc_P]

L

vor 57 Minuten schrieb Stef63:

 

Let’s also face the reality: the digital camera market (FF, crop, medium format, etc.) has declined by around 80% over the past 20 years. So when Andreas Kaufmann invested €60 million in the then almost-bankrupt Leica, the market landscape was very different.

That investment wasn’t just a rescue operation—it became the financial foundation that enabled the development of the S and helped the M system into the digital era.

Fast-forward to today, the entire global medium format market is estimated at just $160 million. Leica’s presence being zero. 

Beyond the technical challenges of creating a compelling product in this niche, there’s also the question whether it can secure a sustainable share of this relatively small market. In that context, the financial risk of developing a new medium format platform today is far from negligible and different from 20 years ago. 

I would, of course, applaud Leica for daring to create an S4—especially as a symbol of innovation and ambition. But not if doing so would come at the risk of impacting the long-term stability of the company or the continued evolution of its core product lines.  But I guess (hope) Leica learned their lessons. 

That said, I’d be more than happy to continue using my S3 and S lenses—alongside M and SL gear—without ever seeing an S4, as long as Leica commits to keeping the S-line fully serviceable for many years to come.

Lets really hope that the S lenses will be serviceable for a long time... 

[Jon Warwick]

16 hours ago, bags27 said:

Am I the only one who thinks the Leica 007, which I lamentably don't own, and the Sigma DP-2 Merrill, which I happily do, still can't be beat 

I used to have a DP2 Merrill, and thought the images were striking due to the distinct underlying sensor technology, which is obviously different to the generic bayer filter cameras. Not a versatile technology, and not easy with Sigma’s processor, but I thought the Merrill sensor produced better textures, less moire, better acutance, better tonal separation, etc.

The sensor that I most like is the Monochroms (I used to have an M10M, now an M11M. The latter the finest output from any digital camera I’ve owned, and I’m often mesmerised by the files when I open them in Adobe). Again - better recording of textures, better tonality etc due to lack of color filter array.

IMHO, the S 007 is pretty similar in its output to many other CMOS sensor cameras, personally I don’t find its output anything that interesting. I used to also have a GFX100, but thought the difference even at 45” wide prints vs my M11 was way smaller than I had assumed before using them extensively.

For all the CMOS cameras, I tend to find them subtle variations on the same rendering. Whereas the Merrills and Monochroms offer a rendering (especially tonality) that’s more unique, IMHO.

So after selling the GFX100, I’m now simply using an M11 and M11M, clearly with the benefits of sharing the same lenses etc. 

Edited May 31 by Jon Warwick

[Stuart Richardson]

2 hours ago, Stef63 said:

 

Let’s also face the reality: the digital camera market (FF, crop, medium format, etc.) has declined by around 80% over the past 20 years. So when Andreas Kaufmann invested €60 million in the then almost-bankrupt Leica, the market landscape was very different.

That investment wasn’t just a rescue operation—it became the financial foundation that enabled the development of the S and helped the M system into the digital era.

Fast-forward to today, the entire global medium format market is estimated at just $160 million. Leica’s presence being zero. 

Beyond the technical challenges of creating a compelling product in this niche, there’s also the question whether it can secure a sustainable share of this relatively small market. In that context, the financial risk of developing a new medium format platform today is far from negligible and different from 20 years ago. 

I would, of course, applaud Leica for daring to create an S4—especially as a symbol of innovation and ambition. But not if doing so would come at the risk of impacting the long-term stability of the company or the continued evolution of its core product lines.  But I guess (hope) Leica learned their lessons. 

That said, I’d be more than happy to continue using my S3 and S lenses—alongside M and SL gear—without ever seeing an S4, as long as Leica commits to keeping the S-line fully serviceable for many years to come.

Leica has never been more profitable than they have been in the last few years. They had a revenue of 554 million euros in 2024 compared to 485 million in 2023. This is despite getting rid of the S and APS-C product lines. I think they have the money and stability at this point to produce a smaller run product with little or no risk to the financial bottom line. I think the S line is of course about profit, but also about developing a prestige product to increase their profile with high end professionals who can make their brand look better and more prestigious. It is about being trying to be the best in the market at all levels and developing technologies that can then be used in their more mainstream cameras, or even more elite markets. For example, the S lenses were adjusted and packed into Thalia lenses and sold for incredible sums for high end cinema work.

I am sure that Leica wants to be very profitable with the S camera, but I also imagine that if it is serving other goals for them, it will also be a success even if it is not a financial one.

[Jeff S]

4 hours ago, Jon Warwick said:

I used to have a DP2 Merrill, and thought the images were striking due to the distinct underlying sensor technology, which is obviously different to the generic bayer filter cameras. Not a versatile technology, and not easy with Sigma’s processor, but I thought the Merrill sensor produced better textures, less moire, better acutance, better tonal separation, etc.

The sensor that I most like is the Monochroms (I used to have an M10M, now an M11M. The latter the finest output from any digital camera I’ve owned, and I’m often mesmerised by the files when I open them in Adobe). Again - better recording of textures, better tonality etc due to lack of color filter array.

IMHO, the S 007 is pretty similar in its output to many other CMOS sensor cameras, personally I don’t find its output anything that interesting. I used to also have a GFX100, but thought the difference even at 45” wide prints vs my M11 was way smaller than I had assumed before using them extensively.

For all the CMOS cameras, I tend to find them subtle variations on the same rendering. Whereas the Merrills and Monochroms offer a rendering (especially tonality) that’s more unique, IMHO.

So after selling the GFX100, I’m now simply using an M11 and M11M, clearly with the benefits of sharing the same lenses etc. 

You should try an original M Monochrom, with CCD sensor.  I’ve kept mine, despite owning the M10 M.  Has a RAW-based histogram too.

[Stef63]

4 hours ago, Stuart Richardson said:

Leica has never been more profitable than they have been in the last few years. They had a revenue of 554 million euros in 2024 compared to 485 million in 2023.

This is interesting to dive into.  I had some spare time, so my apologies for below. ☺️  

Revenue and profit are distinct financial metrics. Upon reviewing Leica Camera AG’s most recent official publiced consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2023, and March 31, 2024, I found some noteworthy details.

In the 2022/2023 fiscal year, Leica Camera AG reported a turnover of €341 million, which increased to €384 million in 2023/2024. Profit after tax rose from €28 million to €30 million during the same period.

These figures are indeed impressive and could provide a solid foundation for future product development. Like a new medium format line (S4).

However, a closer examination of the financial statements reveals that Leica has loans totaling €158 million due within the next four years, an increase in fiscal year 2023/2024 alone of €115 million. This debt is approximately five times the company’s annual profit, indicating a significant financial commitment.

I’m not a financial analyst, but I approach optimism about revenue increases with caution, considering the broader financial context.

Edited May 31 by Stef63

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[BernardC]

21 hours ago, Stef63 said:

Let’s also face the reality: the digital camera market (FF, crop, medium format, etc.) has declined by around 80% over the past 20 years. So when Andreas Kaufmann invested €60 million in the then almost-bankrupt Leica, the market landscape was very different.

That investment wasn’t just a rescue operation—it became the financial foundation that enabled the development of the S and helped the M system into the digital era.

Fast-forward to today, the entire global medium format market is estimated at just $160 million. Leica’s presence being zero. 

Beyond the technical challenges of creating a compelling product in this niche, there’s also the question whether it can secure a sustainable share of this relatively small market. In that context, the financial risk of developing a new medium format platform today is far from negligible and different from 20 years ago. 

20 years ago was the historical peak of the camera market, in terms of unit sales. It was also the peak of nearly-disposable digital point-and-shoot cameras. In 2025, those low-quality P&S cameras have been completely replaced by smartphones, and photography is a more popular craft than it ever was.

Leica wasn't a player in the ephemeral point-and-shoot market of the early 2000s. They offered a few rebranded Fuji models, but their market share paled in comparison to minor players like HP, Epson, etc. 

Rather than looking back to 2005, Leica needs to look forward. Photography and video are more popular than ever. Selling prices have gone up, for all brands. Leica ranks among the most respected and profitable brands in the industry. They feature on the second most popular brand of smartphones worldwide, neck-and-neck with Apple.

In other words, it's not all doom and gloom. Leica doesn't need to depend on a small clique of landscape shooters to buy an S4. If anything, they would be well-advised to ignore that tiny market, and concentrate instead on selling to the most visually literate generation of young photographers (and videographers) that the world has ever seen.

[LocalHero1953]

Deleted - already covered by other posts

Edited June 1 by LocalHero1953