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Photokina predictions


IWC Doppel

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I doubt the dealers know anything about Leica and Photokina that we don't, and we know nothing at all.

 

" All dealers are equal, but some dealers are more equal than others." according to George Orwell. :)

 

Some dealers might know more........;)

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How many times have you heard people comment about the old man with the old camera? Or the guy with the old camera. Or have people ask you how old your camera is?

 

My first reaction is "So what?"

 

Do you buy a camera because of what strangers in the street might say to you, or for the quality of th ephotograph that it can produce in the right hands?

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If (and that's a very big IF) Leica wants to sell to more people than us M lovers, they had better change the body altogether. How many times have you heard people comment about the old man with the old camera? Or the guy with the old camera. Or have people ask you how old your camera is?

 

Why do they say that? The M looks passe to most. These camera buyers will be better positioned in the future to upgrade their current cameras and have the disposable income to buy the Leica of the future. A large percent of the "people" I'm talking about will eventually buy something other than a P&S.

 

Leica must be in that market to attract the 40 years olds and above with any money left or any useable balance left on their credit cards. They need a different design than the M I love because it does not have a modern look for more than one percent of camera buyers now or in the future.

 

Sure keep this M we love going, but build a more modern looking camera with all the bells and whistles people have come to expect plus something way out there different. I do not pretend to know what that should be, but they had better do something spectacular if they are going to survive in the long run.

 

They have done this with the S, why not with a new body other than an M, X, or S. Hey, Apple brought out the iPhone and look what it has done to their bottom line. Leica needs an iPhone-like device that the upper masses can embrace like they have embraced the iPhone and iPad.

 

Almost all young people I know, 16 to 30, really love the M9 design! Only thing is, they cannot afford it. They use the next best camera which often happens to be a reflex.

So I don't think Leica has to look for a modern " looking " camera at the outside. These girls and boys like retro and speed and a camera, that makes better pictures than an iphone 4. Thing is, they hardly can afford an iphone. How must they pay for the even cheapest Leica?

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The M looks passe to most.

Not that I know of. Also you must have missed the retro-look craze of recent years, with Olympus copying the design of their analog Pen models from the 60s (and now the OM design with the OM-D), Fuji borrowing from typical rangefinder designs from the 60s when developing the X100, X10, and X-Pro 1 etc..

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If (and that's a very big IF)

 

They have done this with the S, why not with a new body other than an M, X, or S. Hey, Apple brought out the iPhone and look what it has done to their bottom line.

Huh? They tried to make the S look like the R8 as they could, not like the 1960ies SciFi design favored by many makers as "modern"

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" All dealers are equal, but some dealers are more equal than others." according to George Orwell. :)

 

Some dealers might know more........;)

 

...and I have heard they have signed NDAs with a possible fine of up to EUR 50.000 if they leak information. Those who tell you that they "know" stuff, probably know nothing at all.

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Why do they say that? The M looks passe to most. These camera buyers will be better positioned in the future to upgrade their current cameras and have the disposable income to buy the Leica of the future.

 

No worries, young hipsters are also in line to get these "vintage"ish caMeras ;)

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If (and that's a very big IF) Leica wants to sell to more people than us M lovers, they had better change the body altogether.

 

Dear Leica,

 

As an outsider who is intrigued by Leica M I'd say don't mess too much with the form, it is, together with lenses, the reason for my curiosity.

 

Give me an M that has the means to confirm critical focus and framing pre-capture and you'll have my attention. Give me an M that has the means to check critical focus and framing pre-capture and doesn't have to be returned to you for fine tuning and you'll have my interest. Give me an M that has the means to check critical focus and framing pre-capture, doesn't have to be returned to you for fine tuning and has excellent quality control and you'll probably have my money.

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Dear Leica,

As an outsider who is intrigued by Leica M I'd say don't mess too much with the form, it is, together with lenses, the reason for my curiosity.

Give me an M that has the means to confirm critical focus and framing pre-capture and you'll have my attention. Give me an M that has the means to check critical focus and framing pre-capture and doesn't have to be returned to Leica for fine tuning and you'll have my interest. Give me an M that has the means to check critical focus and framing pre-capture, doesn't have to be returned to Leica for fine tuning and has excellent quality control and you'll probably have my money.

 

Leica has already given us the means to confirm critical focus and framing pre-capture, it's called a properly-adjusted rangefinder. (Sadly, my M9 arrived improperly adjusted, and I had to completely adjust it myself.) And the frame lines can be used to frame very accurately once you learn how they correspond to actual capture with each focal length and at various subject distances. Both the rangefinder and frame lines require user involvement and user judgment. To me that is part of the satisfaction of ownership of a Leica, that it is not without my skill, my years of experience that it can be used successfully. Am I the only one who takes pride in not needing a little TV screen on that shows me the scene at 100% framing, or a little green light or a beep that tells me when I've got focus? People make it sound as though it's either dumb luck or a miracle that anyone ever made a sharp, well-composed photograph with a Leica. It is neither. It's just a matter of learning to use it, like any tool or instrument. As an "outsider" I can tell you two things. One, if you have the slightest initiative, you will learn in a week or two to focus and compose critically on any M camera dating back to the beginning. Two, if you haven't the slightest initiative, all the electronic aids in creation are not going to help you make better photographs.

 

But your comments about quality control are spot-on. For that kind of money, and with all the loud self-aggrandizement Leica trumpets about quality, QC could be better.

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Whilst its a given, I think, that the M10 will be at Photokina I also hope they dont push the formula too far off the historic track of evolution not misjudged revolution.

 

It will be interesting to see where it is pitched, making the most of lenses like the new 50mm I suspect. A technical performance to move away from the video focused multifunctional DSLR's and nearer the S2 with a 35 to add and a price to match ?

 

If they want to exceed volumes of the 9, then it will need to be cheaper (hardly likely !) and then how do they manage production in the short term ?

 

I'm still plugging for the M10, a 35 APO and I might change my mind on a new 75 Summilux, but it is missing, so I'm sticking with those three ;)

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How many times have you heard people comment about the old man with the old camera?

 

Me! And I was only thirty years old.

 

Seriously, I've only been approached once with the person commenting, "Ah, a good old film camera." I was using the M9. He was my age, another pitiful Olde Pharte. :D We had a good conversation.

 

I once had a 21 year-old employee who was the epitome of 'hip'. He changed his stuff as often as he changed his mind - constantly. He's the type who got a magazine only to look at full-page averts. When he saw me park my 1956 Harley-Davidson FLH at work he literally fell down laughing, pointing at me and shouted, "Can't you afford a new bike? God, that thing is an antique!" I could only smile. I knew his job was being terminated in a few days, and I was writing his recommendation that said, "I am pleased to say that he is a former employee."

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Last post for the day.

 

My prediction - Leica is partnering with a winner - Samsung, to introduce a Leica branded Samsung with a APS-C sensor. The body will have significant cosmetic differences and introduced as "Celebrating the roots of Leica with a digital camera honoring Oskar Barnack's original vision - smaller than an M9, more capable than (fill in the blank)."

 

You read it here first.

 

Screw the ND agreement. :)

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The M10 announced at photokina will come with a hefty price tag of around £7k. Sooner or later, the new S3 will be announced, which will push down used S2 bodies close to new M10 prices, thus making a used S2 a more attractive proposition to some buyers

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Leaving aside new panaleicas (D-Lux 5 replacement?), three new Leicas seem to be in the offing:

 

(1) S3 - slightly cheaper than the S2, and a step ahead in technology (an evolution camera). Anyone have any ideas about what those improvements might be? CCD, or other? Red rivalling video capability?

 

(2) M10 - CMos or CCD? That's surely the real question. There may be snail pace evolution like with previous M cameras (hold that thought), but the M10 will continue to sit in the pre-eminent position in the Leica line up.

 

(3) What Stefan Daniels calls the "Gap Filler" - a CSC camera, which will have AF, will have live view, and will do video, and will bring Leica towards its 1% market share. It will be expensive for a mass-market camera, but it will be in the gap between the X2 and the M10 (it's a wide gap), and it will be a Leica camera. Hopefully, it will also have adapters for M & R lenses, as Leica will not be able to bring a new line of AF lenses to market quickly.

 

The residual questions are - how ground breaking will each camera be, and which ones will be released at Photokina?

 

The first question is quite interesting as Leica has never really gone for gimmicks, but at the same time it has not shied away from truly ground breaking developments - eg, the M3, the M9 (full frame digital), the S2, and the M Monochrom. So, I do not think Leica will be at all timid in its developments, provided the development is aimed at improved image quality, delivered as simply as possible. Their attitude seems to be screw the risk, and screw the price - if it's a better camera, they'll make it.

 

As to the second question, we get some clues in the release of the M Monochrom. I'm absolutely certain that a lot of people will be disappointed with whatever is released at Photokina, but my pick is all three - S3, M10 & GF. They have planned production capacity with their new factories, and a lag between announcement and availability is pretty typical.

 

I also remain of the view (expressed months ago) that the M9P and M Monochrom is the end of the line for the CCD based M camera, and probably the traditional M camera. I don't expect the bells and whistles that will be offered in the GF to be in the M10. The S2 has none of these, and I expect the M10 to follow the same trend.

 

The M10 will remain the pinnacle of Leica's craftsmanship, with only developments aimed at improving image quality, for those who appreciate such things. So, I expect it to remain manual focus, with very limited automation. But, it will use the benefits of its new sensor design. I don't see the end of the CCD sensor because of any issues with Truesense, but it would seem that CCD technology in the M9 has reached a plateau - we'll see better high ISO, and if it's CMos probably live view, with the benefits that brings. No video.

 

John

A man not subject to an NDA, and no inside information

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Last post for the day.

 

My prediction - Leica is partnering with a winner - Samsung, to introduce a Leica branded Samsung with a APS-C sensor. The body will have significant cosmetic differences...

 

You mean it's going to look like an iPhone?

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