AlanG Posted June 16, 2009 Share #281 Posted June 16, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) Glad I bought a Nikon instead of holding my breath. EVF is simply not acceptable. Nor is manual diaphragm. On an EVF camera, the manual diaphragm won't matter except in low light where you are likely to be wide open anyway. There are numerous real advantages and a few real drawbacks to having an EVF today. But the expectation is that the advantages will be increased and the drawbacks decreased as the technology and implementation of that technology improves. Photographers will have to accommodate the EVF and this may take some getting used to but is doable for many applications. A lot of times, an EVF is a better way to work, however different it is from what we are used to. It is a far superior way to shoot static subjects. Most people will adapt. As far as capturing expression, I think technology will see to that. The 5DII can already shoot 30fps video at 1080x1920P for a pretty long time. It won't be much longer before cameras will be able to shoot short or long video clips at full resolution. So maybe you'll shoot a series of 1 or 2 second bursts and then later choose the frames with the best expressions. (It could even buffer the sensor back in time to slightly before you pressed the button to compensate for your slow reaction time.) I think the shutters will become superfluous. There are lots of ways that this can be implemented and all kinds of other technical ideas that can be applied to digital photography once the processing power is great enough. It will happen sooner than we think. This is why regular SLR OVF technology will be doomed. A small and lightweight full frame Leica EVF camera could be pretty incredible. (I don't see why the body would have to be much bigger or heavier than a G-1 just to incorporate a larger sensor and shutter.) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Advertisement Posted June 16, 2009 Posted June 16, 2009 Hi AlanG, Take a look here Hessenpark News: Official - No R10: no FF M9 (yet). I'm sure you'll find what you were looking for!
J Mitchum Posted June 16, 2009 Share #282 Posted June 16, 2009 How about a high-resolution EVF that offered both SLR and Rangefinder style manual focusing? Surely the technology exists to overlay a transparent image over the center portion of the EVF to simulate the patch. You could increase the size of the patch or switch to traditional SLR type focusing if you prefer. This seems more worthy of a mid-range product though. The only things I care about would be a FF R10 and a FF M9. I'm unclear on what was said. There will be no R10 but "something" will be made by a third party. What about the M9 then? It seems like Leica is heading in a new direction every 6 months. I fear they may be truly lost. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
veraikon Posted June 16, 2009 Share #283 Posted June 16, 2009 I'm unclear on what was said. ..... just look here and listen to the future L Forum-TV video http://www.l-camera-forum.com/leica-forum/leica-kundenforum/89481-fragestunde-forumstreffen-die-zusammenfassung.html#post936938 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicar7 Posted June 16, 2009 Share #284 Posted June 16, 2009 Could we have a translation of Andreas's summary points. Please? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdai Posted June 16, 2009 Share #285 Posted June 16, 2009 just look here and listen to the future L Forum-TV videohttp://www.l-camera-forum.com/leica-forum/leica-kundenforum/89481-fragestunde-forumstreffen-die-zusammenfassung.html#post936938 I've got a relatively positive feel by reading Andreas' summary. No mention about EVF at all ... as I've pointed out in another post, it may have been only one haphazard comment Stefan Daniel has made casually in conversation with Jaap. On strange thing is about the projected cost of a hypothetical R10, I must say 6k-7k Euro is no big deal for many dedicated Leica folks, and we are all here because of Leica's optics and image quality rather than feature sets. Not sure if that's a good justification ... honestly I think the true reason is because S and R are too close in terms of spec so R has to be killed. S2 body price will be far below 20k euros ... quality comparable to 50mp offerings from competitors. 10000 unit sales per year ... very ambitious - aiming at double digits in terms of market share - not sure if this one adds up, according to Michael Reichmann the global MFDB market size is less than 6k per year. Dealers are not interested in the M8 upgrade program because they don't make money from it. One step further with the M9, no mention how big the step was. Others are not important or I don't care ... I'm sure this will have a official English ver. pretty soon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanG Posted June 16, 2009 Share #286 Posted June 16, 2009 ...S2 body price will be far below 20k euros ... quality comparable to 50mp offerings from competitors. 10000 unit sales per year ... very ambitious... How far below 20K euros? Did he mention if they have a market beyond Earth? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdai Posted June 16, 2009 Share #287 Posted June 16, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) How far below 20K euros? Did he mention if they have a market beyond Earth? He says the S2 price will remain in line with the high end offerings from Hassy and Phase. I guess the body alone price will be between 15k and 18k euros, which is around 18k/20k US ... not too bad if you must need it. It certainly won't find as much love when compared to a would-be R10 at 6k or 7k, it seems that they're quite optimustic anyways and yes, if they'll find one or two nuts in NASA, their market will expand beyond the Earth. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanG Posted June 17, 2009 Share #288 Posted June 17, 2009 For the sake of discussion, let's assume it only sells for 14K euros... X 10,000 units works out to 140,000,000 euros per year for the body alone. I figure the average buyer will need at least 3-4 lenses. Let's assume 2500 - 3,333 euros average for each lens - on the low end for lenses too. That is approximately another 100,000,000 euros for lens sales. Can the market for the S2 really be this large? Am I missing something??? On the other hand, I was in my local bicycle store and they have a lot of bikes on display in the $3,000 - $9000 range. And this is just a small local outlet. I was wondering how they justify this kind of inventory, but it is a well to do community. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
R10dreamer Posted June 17, 2009 Share #289 Posted June 17, 2009 I can't imagine that Leica, in their wildest dreams, expect to sell 10,000 S2's a year. I think that is probably the total units they are hoping to sell. Your lens math works per unit but probably not - per year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andybarton Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share #290 Posted June 17, 2009 The figure given on Friday, as reported here, was 10,000 units. Not per year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spylaw4 Posted June 17, 2009 Share #291 Posted June 17, 2009 Could we have a translation of Andreas's summary points. Please? As I don't really speak German, here's an unofficial Babelfish translation. As always with this literal translation method, be careful with the exact meaning and adjust the grammer. Make of this what you will - maybe someone else can give a more educated translation. General strategy Co-operation with Panasonic Co-operation with Panasonic persists. It will give further compact cameras. Leica and Micro FourThirds Leica will offer no MFT to cameras. Possibly Leica MFT of objectives will offer. MFT is an interesting system. The sensor size is however a strongly restrictive factor. Leica and the forum Leica does not intend to offer its own forum. Co-operation is regarded as very good and constructionally. Positive example is the first contribution of L-Camera TV from the Leica production. Many Leica coworkers read in the forum, so that important contributions are announced in the product management at the latest one hour after publication. Forum supplies many notes for the production development. Stefan Daniel assures to react in the future more frequently. Leica as offerers of objectives for other camera systems Patents, which are needed, are exchanged only within the Japanese camera industry. Zeiss does not have the foot in the door, Leica by Cosina as a manufacturer there. Appropriate attempts of Leica to come to an agreement failed so far. New product areas Scanners are not planned as new product area. Beamer are continued, however not with Wechseloptiken. Possibly leave themselves in the CS Beamer changes. R-system R10 and alternatives It will no digital mirror reflex camera, speak R10, to give. It will give however very probably - and to it we work - an adequate solution, how one can use R-objectives digitally. It is important to us that owners can photograph of R-objectives in the near future thereby digitally. This solution will have nothing do with the S2. Leica examined intensively, what would have to know a R10 and which must have this camera for a price. Costs would be 6000 - to the competition mile far afterwards would limp to 7000 euros and the product. This would be for regular customers a way, however no new clients would possibly open. Therefore we the R-system is not resumed and the past system runs out. Time for the new solution is not certain. Indirect references of Stefan Daniel that it becomes small display format. It becomes definitely no mirror reflex camera. DMR Reason for the attitude of the DMR was Co-operation with Imacon, now Hasselblad, ended very abruptly. Sales figures were very small (approx. 10% of M8/M8.2) The DMR firmware is not continued to develop. M-system M9 A M9 will come. Full format is technically very fastidious with the M-objectives. We are further a piece, but not yet there that we can say, tomorrow is the camera there. Upgrade programm M8 No further Upgrade is planned. Upgrades are unattractive for dealers, because no additional conversions are generated. Upgrade programm obstructed sale of the Leica M8.2. Used cameras are a riser models, which would drive near new customers at Leica. This would be omitted by further Upgrade programs. Chip supplier Kodak adjusts itself strongly on customer needs, e.g. with the special size of the S2 chips. Other manufacturers (e.g. Sony) offer only firm one of products. Summarits and/or entering The objectives Summarits are genuine Leica of objectives. Extension of this line existed already e.g. in the LEICA ELMAR-M 1:3,8 /24 mm. It will give also far affordable Leica objectives, which do not mean perhaps Summarit, since this name for luminous intensity 2,5 is reserved. More 50's Summiluxe are sold to than twice as much such as Summarits. Stronger wide angles On the question whether stronger wide angles are offered Leica has already a 16mm, there could one only further go downward. That is a topic, to which we could dedicate ourselves…. Deliverability 18mm finder still comes in June, Framework accuracy was not yet sufficient, therefore a rework was necessary NOCTILUX was announced for February. Production more complex than first meant. Objectively consists nearly only of large cement members These must only cemented, then to be recompensed. With this process problems developed. Problem is in the grasp, so that at the end of of June/at the beginning of of July larger numbers of items comes. S-system Preproduction cameras are developed straight. So far the schedule stands. Price will move on the level of the top models in the digital professional segment, speaks the Highend solutions of Hasselblad and phase One. The Body will be clearly below 20,000 euros. Quality of the S2 approaches because of quality of the objectives and missing low-pass filter to the 50MP solutions of the other manufacturers. Target group of the S2 are professional photographers - studio, mode, car. Total market are 10,000 cameras per year Market share desired is at least two digit. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevelap Posted June 17, 2009 Share #292 Posted June 17, 2009 So, 'at least two digit ' market share = 10% of a total market of 10,000 units annually = hoped for sales of around 1000 S2's per year (assuming the translation isn't too far out). Achievable? Who knows, certainly possible given a fair wind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ash Posted June 17, 2009 Share #293 Posted June 17, 2009 Thanks for the translation. That is very close to what I recall from the meeting. Regards Steve Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
marknorton Posted June 17, 2009 Share #294 Posted June 17, 2009 The confusion over the 10000 cameras is now explained, thank you. At one point, it appeared this was the lifetime sales of the S2, then the annual sales of the S2, it's now clear the total market is 10000 cameras per year and Leica hopes for a 10%+ share, 1000 cameras, 5 - 10 a day. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUF Admin Posted June 17, 2009 Share #295 Posted June 17, 2009 I'll try to translate the summary this evening - the Babelfish did a fairly good job but some topics must be clarified... Andreas Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevelap Posted June 17, 2009 Share #296 Posted June 17, 2009 I'll try to translate the summary this evening - the Babelfish did a fairly good job but some topics must be clarified... Andreas Thanks Andreas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJP Posted June 17, 2009 Share #297 Posted June 17, 2009 I'll try to translate the summary this evening - the Babelfish did a fairly good job but some topics must be clarified... AndreasFor our German friends: Ich werde versuchen, die Zusammenfassung dieser Abend - die Babelfish haben eine ziemlich gute Arbeit, aber einige Themen geklärt werden müssen ... And back: I will try to make the summary of this evening - the Babelfish have a pretty good job, but some issues must be resolved ... Computer translation really is quite abysmal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunsworth Posted June 17, 2009 Share #298 Posted June 17, 2009 I'll try to translate the summary this evening - the Babelfish did a fairly good job but some topics must be clarified... Thanks Andreas. German is one of the worst European languages for Babelfish to translate. The word order is so different from English and the romance languages. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
masjah Posted June 17, 2009 Share #299 Posted June 17, 2009 Thanks Andreas. German is one of the worst European languages for Babelfish to translate. The word order is so different from English and the romance languages. Indeed. There is a huge German mathematical tome, in two volumes. Allegedly, all the theorems are in volume one, and all the verbs are in volume two. (Hope our German friends take this doubtless apocryphal story in good part!) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
carstenw Posted June 17, 2009 Share #300 Posted June 17, 2009 Babelfish is okay sometimes, but there are some bad errors in this translation, so here are some much needed corrections: Leica as offerers of objectives for other camera systems Patents, which are needed, are exchanged only within the Japanese camera industry. Zeiss does not have the foot in the door, Leica by Cosina as a manufacturer there. Appropriate attempts of Leica to come to an agreement failed so far. This translation is totally wrong. The point is that the Japanese camera industry apparently is open to exchanging patents as needed, but only internally. Zeiss has a foot in the door with Cosina's manufacturing capability, but Leica does not. All attempts at securing access to the required patents have so far failed. Leica examined intensively, what would have to know a R10 and which must have this camera for a price. Costs would be 6000 - to the competition mile far afterwards would limp to 7000 euros and the product. This would be for regular customers a way, however no new clients would possibly open. Therefore we the R-system is not resumed and the past system runs out. This is really muddy. What it says is that Leica studied the feasibility of an R10 in depth, but came to the conclusion that the price would have to be €6000-7000, which was deemed acceptable for maintaining the existing base of customers, but too high to win many new customers, combined with the fact that the R10 would lag the competition in many ways. Therefore the R system has been discontinued. My personal opinion is still that IF the economy improves, and IF the S2 is an unqualified success (I don't necessarily mean a world-beater, just successful enough to exceed Leica's expectations), and IF the M9 is released in a timely fashion, and is well received, THEN the possibility of an R10/S10 would be brought back to the table. A lot of ifs, but it is clear that Leica cannot survive on air alone. A M9 will come. Full format is technically very fastidious with the M-objectives. We are further a piece, but not yet there that we can say, tomorrow is the camera there. Full frame with the M lenses is technically very challenging. They are making good progress, but can not yet say that the camera will be there tomorrow. This is an interesting comment. As far as I understand from my contacts, FF is looking doable, but the IR filtering is a real challenge that they are still working on. I understand that they are also working on de-vignetting and such, but in my opinion, this is far less important, as it was always there, and indeed often adds, rather than subtracts, from the image. Software can handle this easily in any case, so perhaps Leica could just make some Capture One profiles, and maybe work with Adobe to get this working in ACR/LR as well. The timing is unknown, but there is some grounds for optimism here. The fact that Leica even talks of progress is a strong indicator to me, given how conservative they are in their statements. Used cameras are a riser models, which would drive near new customers at Leica. This would be omitted by further Upgrade programs. Another beauty. Used cameras attract new customers to the Leica M system. The continuation of upgrade programs would counter-act this beneficial effect... ... since people would hang on to their cameras, instead of feeding the ecology. Kodak adjusts itself strongly on customer needs, e.g. with the special size of the S2 chips. Other manufacturers (e.g. Sony) offer only firm one of products. Kodak will consult about chip specs; other companies like Sony offer only off-the-shelf components. The latter is of course not attractive to a company like Leica with very specific and unusual challenges, like the proximity of some M lenses to the sensor. More 50's Summiluxe are sold to than twice as much such as Summarits. More than twice as many 50 Summilux ASPH lenses are sold as 50 Summarits!!! I had to re-read that several times to be sure that it was right. I guess there are more dentists among us than previously believed, eh Jaap? This means in effects that the highest quality lenses are actually one of the major attractions of the system, and people aren't necessarily willing to enter into compromises in specification to enter the system. Interesting. I haven't quite parsed this fully yet, to see what that means about the best direction for the future. The Body will be clearly below 20,000 euros. The body price will lie significantly below €20000. I take this to mean that Herr Doktor Kaufmann's previous statement that they hope to offer the body at €15000 or so is still feasible. Let's see what a Hasselblad H3DII-39 goes for by September. Quality of the S2 approaches because of quality of the objectives and missing low-pass filter to the 50MP solutions of the other manufacturers. Target group of the S2 are professional photographers - studio, mode, car. Total market are 10,000 cameras per year Market share desired is at least two digit. Well translated, but interesting. Andreas, can you confirm that it is 10000 cameras per year, and not just 10000 for the first production run? There seems to be some disagreement on this point. I find it interesting that the S2 with its lenses approaches the results of 50MP models. I hope that this doesn't mean that it will be priced in that range. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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