Leica's growth plans

[Ecaton]

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"Leica Camera (LCA1) AG aims to have 1 percent of the global camera market within 10 years, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing supervisory board chairman and majority owner Andreas Kaufmann.

Today, Leica has 0.15 percent, Kaufmann told the FAZ. He said he expects China to overtake the U.S. as Leica’s biggest market within five years, the newspaper reported".

 

7x bigger market share in 10 years will require a broadar product portfolio. The global market as a whole is going to grow as well, at least in units, maybe less so in value. So Leica will be significantly bigger a company if growth can be achieved.

[jaapv]

That either presupposes a DSLR type Leica or an eclipse of the DSLR market by EVIL. Leica will not be able to reach that aim within their present niche imo.

[StephenPatterson]

If Olympus shares keep falling and the scandal widens more then Leica could always consider buying them. I think they missed an opportunity by not purchasing ISS, which would have given them much more control over their supply chain.

[earleygallery]

Clearly the plan is for more lower end consumer models then.

[IkarusJohn]

They're not going to boost their customer base 7 times over with the M or S system. But, they can't currently meet demand, so increasing output of their current models has to be a first step.

 

dSLR is going to lose out to mirror less systems, would be my pick.

 

For a camera company with that market share, but remaining at the top, Leica has to take more of a plunge into the mainstream. They are already at the top of the tree with lens quality, but too far from the mainstream in price. The S2 sits in an unusual place in the medium format segment (perhaps a visionary placement) M9 is the smallest full frame digital camera on the market and also fills a niche.

 

So that leaves the X1 (pretty much surpassed in the market by the X100), and the panaleicas. They need a major X1 upgrade, and a pretty cool EVIL option, I'd say. 1% is a long way from 0.15%

 

Roll on Photokina 2012.

[mjh]

That either presupposes a DSLR type Leica or an eclipse of the DSLR market by EVIL. Leica will not be able to reach that aim within their present niche imo.

If the one percent figure refers to the camera market as a whole then the easiest way (by far) to achieve that goal would be to build lots of cheap compact cameras (or have Panasonic build these). If it refers to the system camera market then developing an EVIL-type camera would be the most promising strategy.

[peterbengtson]

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Perhaps they mean in monetary terms, so they will keep increasing the prices on equipment at their current production level until they have 1% of the market in dollars (or Euros). <grin>

[mmradman]

Perhaps they mean in monetary terms, so they will keep increasing the prices on equipment at their current production level until they have 1% of the market in dollars (or Euros). <grin>

 

Increasing prices 7 fold would lead to market share of 0.02%.

 

If aim is to increase market penetration and sales 7x (what else) than new generation different from current M cameras will be required. Its key selling features will be Leica name and non-Leica prices - at the moment this is contradiction in terms so new marketing strategy will have to be devised.

 

I would imagine if 7x increase does happen there will be premium range continuation of the current M/S commanding 0.1-0.2% of the market and the rest will be new generation gear.

[jamesk8752]

"Leica Camera (LCA1) AG aims to have 1 percent of the global camera market within 10 years, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing supervisory board chairman and majority owner Andreas Kaufmann.

Today, Leica has 0.15 percent, Kaufmann told the FAZ. He said he expects China to overtake the U.S. as Leica’s biggest market within five years, the newspaper reported".

 

7x bigger market share in 10 years will require a broadar product portfolio. The global market as a whole is going to grow as well, at least in units, maybe less so in value. So Leica will be significantly bigger a company if growth can be achieved.

 

I'd like some of what Dr. Kaufmann is smoking...

 

Regards, Jim

[AlanG]

Take a look at the Nex7 as a model of how cameras have changed in the past 10 years and then try to picture where they will be 10 years from now. I think most of the development will be in electronics over that period and Leica will need to keep up or lead. And a cell phone that has a zoom or even some supplementary lenses may be more than good enough for most people's needs.

 

So considering that the higher end Leicas will never approach 1% of the overall market, and cheap traditional cameras will be somewhat replaced by cell phones, that probably means that Leica better have a removable lens mirrorless system that is very good at an "affordable" price. (I think regular DLRs will be mostly if not completely gone within 10 years.) They may have to be fully into the "lightfield" capturing business by then. I don't see why they can't take a page from Apple and design the camera and contract out the manufacturing.

 

And if they sell 7 times as many cameras they should also consider hiring one or two additional repair technicians.

[Ecaton]

And if they sell 7 times as many cameras they should also consider hiring one or two additional repair technicians.

 

I would expect this to require selling quite a bit more than 7 times as many cameras as they do today as the global demand for cameras will grow as a function of prosperity and population growth in several regions of the world.

[earleygallery]

As I've said before, digital photography as we know it today is dead. Most cameras, especially higher end stuff like MF and Leica, are really film cameras in design adapted to use a digital sensor.

 

We are seeing more and more development of purely digital designs - mirrorless 'SLR's', Lytro, Red, smartphones etc and IMHO that is the way the Market will go. I doubt such a thing as a stills only digital camera will exist in 10yrs time, let alone one which has manual focus!

 

Nikons new camera has 'moving snapshots' - why not a brief movie to post on the digital news media, Facebook or twitter or the digital picture frame, instead of a boring still image?

 

With less and less printed media who needs more than a few megapixels? Especially if IQ from a small sensor keeps improving. Software and print technology will allow for adequate quality if a hard copy is really necessary.

[farnz]

Perhaps the way to approach 1% of the market is to trade on Leica's exceptional lens brand by licensing it to a mobile phone manufacturer.

 

Pete.

[StephenPatterson]

As I've said before, digital photography as we know it today is dead. Most cameras, especially higher end stuff like MF and Leica, are really film cameras in design adapted to use a digital sensor.

 

James, I agree that your view of the future of photography is a distinct possibility, but I would point out that just because new and supposedly better technology is available does not necessarily mean that the old ways must die. The automatic transmission is a great invention, but there are still many manual transmission cars produced today. Not all of the world's meals come out of microwave ovens. And in spite of the 1970s love with all things digital the Swiss seem to be doing very well making traditional chronograph watches.

 

I, for one, am cautiously optimistic, that the best days of the digital rangefinder are yet to come...

 

Stephen

[AlanG]

James, I agree that your view of the future of photography is a distinct possibility, but I would point out that just because new and supposedly better technology is available does not necessarily mean that the old ways must die. The automatic transmission is a great invention, but there are still many manual transmission cars produced today. Not all of the world's meals come out of microwave ovens. And in spite of the 1970s love with all things digital the Swiss seem to be doing very well making traditional chronograph watches.

 

I, for one, am cautiously optimistic, that the best days of the digital rangefinder are yet to come...

 

Stephen

 

They may or may not die but I don't think your analogies are pertinent. I suspect some people will even still be using Daguerreotypes in 100 years but we are talking about Leica's plans of trying to get a much larger share of the market and they won't be doing that by making products that appeal to tiny niche markets. And that includes Leica RF cameras that will probably still have a following.

 

Manual transmissions are simpler and cheaper to make than automatic trannies. And I think they generally are lighter and more fuel efficient so they live on. Some sports car owners prefer them but even that market is moving pretty much to racing style paddle shifting. But a mirrorless camera that uses an EVF and has no shutter is going to be a lot simpler and cheaper to make than a DSLR. That and shooting video will doom them more or less although some photographers might still prefer an optical SLR viewfinder for some uses. (However, after looking at the viewfinder in the Nex 7, I am really wondering about that since the EVF has some real advantages and this one is so good.) Technical and MF cameras may still be around in various forms too.

 

The backward compatibility of lenses on a camera like the Nex is staggering. At the Photo Plus Expo there was a booth from China of lens adapters for the Nex and others. They had tilt and shift adapters for MF and 35mm lenses. They had adapters with focusing mounts to accommodate old Contax and Nikon RF lenses. They had an adapter with a built in diaphragm that allowed EOS lenses to be used on the camera. Eventually there may be adapters that translate the electronic control of various lenses. So if you have a bunch of lenses from just about any camera, you can make use of them on one of these cameras. (Cropped unless full frame models come out.)

 

I bought an HTC Amaze cell phone about a month ago and the photos and videos it can produce are quite good and it is more responsive than many p&s cameras.

 

Many watches are bought as jewelry. And I don't want to get into cooking and ovens. I haven't seen very many b/w crt televisions at Best Buy for a while.

[AlanG]

Perhaps the way to approach 1% of the market is to trade on Leica's exceptional lens brand by licensing it to a mobile phone manufacturer.

 

Pete.

 

May be a good idea. Zeiss licenses its name to Nokia cell phones. And Schneider makes accessory lenses for the iPhone. Everyone knows that the cell phone camera market is evolving.

 

http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/schneider_expands_iphone_photography_options_with_ipro_lens_system/

 

There also is the Steadicam Smoothee

 

http://steadicam.com/smoothee_home.html

 

So between the lenses and the Smoothee, I'd expect to see features shot on the iPhone before long.

[AlanG]

 

Nikons new camera has 'moving snapshots' - why not a brief movie to post on the digital news media, Facebook or twitter or the digital picture frame, instead of a boring still image?

 

 

I'm on another forum where one person already has a moving snapshot "portrait."

[StephenPatterson]

The backward compatibility of lenses on a camera like the Nex is staggering. At the Photo Plus Expo there was a booth from China of lens adapters for the Nex and others. They had tilt and shift adapters for MF and 35mm lenses. They had adapters with focusing mounts to accommodate old Contax and Nikon RF lenses. They had an adapter with a built in diaphragm that allowed EOS lenses to be used on the camera. Eventually there may be adapters that translate the electronic control of various lenses. So if you have a bunch of lenses from just about any camera, you can make use of them on one of these cameras. (Cropped unless full frame models come out.)

 

And if my Granny had wheels she'd be a wagon.

 

I refuse to believe that photography as I have known it will be dead and gone, replaced by video cameras with infinite focus and all the other bells and whistles. Oh yes, those cameras will exist, but I believe with 100% conviction that the craft will continue, because at the end of the day every feature you're talking about does nothing to improve my images. You see, I like messing up things like focus and exposure. It lets me experiment, and learn, and try. No computer camera can do that for me. My Leica M9 is a PART of me.

 

Leica will continue to innovate and improve, as seen with the S2. They will also continue to partner with Panasonic or another Japanese high volume manufacturer to put their brand on more affordable cameras. But at the end of the day Leica is a niche brand, and will remain so.

 

Leica is caught in the middle between high volume, low cost, low feature cameras where they cannot compete, only rebrand, and the vast resources of Nikon and Canon, who can outspend Leica 100-1 on R&D, introducing new pro models and whizz bang features at an ever increasing rate.

 

I for one do not believe Dr.Kaufmann or Blackstone have deep enough pockets to fight either battle, and believe they will remain in their niche, playing up the brand's strengths of high quality and high price, albeit with limited features, as they formulate an exit plan with a new buyer in 24-36 months.

[Ecaton]

Perhaps the way to approach 1% of the market is to trade on Leica's exceptional lens brand by licensing it to a mobile phone manufacturer.

 

Pete.

 

But will they count as units sold in the phone or the camera market? Once we have cameras with which one can make phone calls, listen to the radio, surf the web, use as gps and toast bred it will be a different question.

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Hallo,

Look here: Interesting Leica gear

[earleygallery]

But will they count as units sold in the phone or the camera market? Once we have cameras with which one can make phone calls, listen to the radio, surf the web, use as gps and toast bred it will be a different question.

 

My iPhone can do all of that, well almost!

 

We are 'there' already, it's just that people are still adapting to the new technology and finding new ways to use it. I never thought book readers would ever really take off, but they've become cheaper and better and are set to boom.

 

When we have free wifi pretty much everywhere, and it will happen, we'll all be carrying them and reading our daily newspapers and favourite magazines on them.