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Leica fire sales coming?


mark_goode

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...To sell at a loss is forbidden,
Forbidden? By whom?

By the law in some EU countries like Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Portugal with more or less notable exceptions.

Same in the US when below-cost selling proves anticompetitive in purpose or effect AFAIK.

Not my speciality though.

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Those rules don't apply to this type of situation. They are mainly rules to prevent a manufacturer from dumping goods below cost in a move to cause the competitors to leave the market after which the manufacturer is free to raise prices without competition.

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Look, this thread is stupid. 1) It's pure rumor. And 2) it's commonplace. Any time there's an economic downturn, some dealers drop Leica. When they do so, dealers always explain to their customers, "Look, I'm an important dealer for Leica, but I can't afford to carry the line any more." But if the dealer actually were "an important dealer for Leica," he wouldn't be dumping the product.

 

But don't misunderstand me. Although I think the thread is meaningless, the facts it brings up are not; and they have been discussed on the forum frequently: Fewer and fewer dealers for a more and more expensive product.

 

The fact that a source doesn't want to be quoted doesn't mean there isn't a source; it means that the source wishes to remain anonymous. I share and hear things in confidence routinely. This is the same. Whether you believe me or not is your choice but I don't trade in misrepresentations. And in this case, there is no gain or loss for me either way.

 

Howard, if by "important dealer" you mean that the dealer in question is actually selling Leica equipment, then you are correct. Of course they wouldn't drop a product line that is making them money. But the point my sources make is that there are a number of large stocking dealers who have purchased lots of Leica inventory and CAN'T sell it.

 

The situation with the M8 (the price spread between used M8s and new M8.2s) could be seen as evidence not just of a rapidly depreciating electronic product but also of a product strategy that can't support an on-going profit margin that enables the distribution channels to make money. That is the evidence I point to as support for the problem in the distribution channels . . .

 

At the end of the day, my passion for Leica's M film camera line remains undiminished. They are well manufactured products that will outlast poor management decisions in Solms. My M7 and MP will likely work as long as I can hold a camera to my eye. What disappoints me is that Leica has missed an opportunity to transition profitably and successfully into the digital age. The inevitable market consequence will be a much smaller company -- if it can continue to exist at all -- with far fewer resources to invest in future products.

 

As you said Howard, these facts have all been discussed before. My opinion is that we may be approaching a financial inflection point that while causing Solms much grief may spell a unique buying opportunity for those of us who have been patiently waiting for affordable Leica products.

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The fact that a source doesn't want to be quoted doesn't mean there isn't a source; it means that the source wishes to remain anonymous...

 

Well, Mark Felt died recently...

 

In this day and age and in this economy, can anyone really be surprised that $6,000+ 1.3x 10 megapixel bodies, and lenses that can cost $3,000+ don't jump off the shelves?

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Isn't that what free enterprise is all about?

Precisely, Andy, just as you and I said above.

 

In addition, John is right that predatory pricing is illegal, but as he says, that's not what Mark is talking about.

 

If I have $10,000 tied up in merchandise that I can't turn, it may be smart to consider selling it for $7,000 and putting the money into higher-turn, higher-margin goods. There's nothing illegal about doing so, no one will take me to court, it's just good business.

 

The problem is that some products 'sell themselves,' and others 'need to be sold.' Leica is in the second category, and fewer and fewer dealerships seem interested in investing the time, money or interest in selling Leica.

 

But as Steve implied when he repeated me above,

... it's yet another pointless thread. ...

 

cf

 

... I think the thread is meaningless, ....

 

 

that's a problem Leica has had at least since the '60s. I think at some point it will catch up with them. It almost did in early 2008. It will take vision and innovation to avoid it now. Mark is correct that it's a serious issue, but it's nothing new.

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My opinion is that we may be approaching a financial inflection point that while causing Solms much grief may spell a unique buying opportunity for those of us who have been patiently waiting for affordable Leica products.

 

I'm glad for the thread, Mark, but I devoutly hope this doesn't happen.

 

Leica is already beyond my means, but if the brand began to drop in price generally, it would mean the end of the marque. But I may be wrong.

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Leica requires its dealers to maintain a full inventory, not just bits and pieces they want to sell

 

For that reason we no longer have a dealer in Indianapolis as the local outlet wanted to cherry-pick the catalog for what it felt was a good fit in this market and got out when Leica didn't let them do that

 

So, this kind of talk isn't anything new; nor is it anything new for a disgruntled dealer to float a rumor on this forum (probably through an unsuspecting member) to be read by Leica (as they do pay attention to what goes on here)

 

Yawn

 

I wouldn't read any broad trends into what you're hearing, Mark

 

I do think, however, that for an American buyer, you'll never have a better opportunity in your lifetime to purchase Leica gear than right now

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Porsche when faced with the same problem a few years ago, sluggish sales, large inventory, actually cut production and therfore sales until things improved and would not let Dealerships discount.

Now cameras are different than auto's because camera dealerships deal in many brands and Porshe dealerships may be single brand or a small number of similar brands so the camera dealerships can walk away with no problems.

We will see what happens.-Dick

 

In the end, Porsche did put money in the trunk for the dealers and big discounts came and have remained

 

Surely you didn't pay full sticker for yours, did you now?

 

:D

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I do think, however, that for an American buyer, you'll never have a better opportunity in your lifetime to purchase Leica gear than right now

Excellently said. And the same could have been said at any time in Leica's history.

 

If you find a dealer bailing out, good for you! Capitalize, don't generalize. ;)

 

But Leica prices have never gone down, always up. I think when that stops, so does the company.

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I've thought about selling my M8 for two reasons (1) my eyes don't work as well as they need to for critical manual focus, and (2) Leica hasn't kept up with the technology. I haven't actually *sold* my thoroughly used M8 because, happily, the value is dropping rapidly enough that I wouldn't get much for it -- not when mints are going in the low $2000 range. For the price available, it's better to hold on, hoping that an M9 will appear that will solve some of these problems...

 

But my real hope is that the micro 4/3 will work as advertised with Leica glass. If that pans out -- even if it takes a couple of generations -- we may all be saved, and the cost of the M8 can be looked upon simply as the tax we paid to justify buying our increasingly valuable Leica lenses.

 

That's the bright side of the possibility.

 

The dark side is that the entire company and all of its products are in the shit, and, where I might have sold out a year or so ago and bought a rather nice new car for my daughter, I now will be reduced to selling the lenses off an apple box on Main Street.

 

JC

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Seriously..?

Ouch!

No, that would be nice from Leica's viewpoint of course, but the local sales rep has a great deal of discretion in implementation of the sales agreement.

 

A dealer in Odessa, Texas, isn't expected to carry the same stock as a dealer in New York City.

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I don't doubt it, Allan. There barely was when I was calling on him. :)

 

Things have changed since that time, but the example still stands. The rep has discretion in the matter.

 

(I think if I had to live somewhere without a Leica dealer, I might prefer Indianapolis to Odessa anyway.)

 

 

BTW, you say

... the local outlet wanted to cherry-pick the catalog for what it felt was a good fit in this market and got out when Leica didn't let them do that ...

Note the third-person aspect: The dealer "got out" of his own accord because he felt Leica was asking too much of him. Exactly the same kind of terminology with which Mark started the thread. "My source told me..."

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(I think if I had to live somewhere without a Leica dealer, I might prefer Indianapolis to Odessa anyway.)

 

Indeed

 

Tell me more about what happened to the dealer here as I'm eager to learn the rest of the story (as Paul Harvey would say)

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Leica has no need to bother with 4/3 or micro 4/3 at all ... all they'll need is live view coupled with a high resolution back LCD such as the one on a A900, precise contrast detect focusing with focus confirmation can match if not totally beat an accurate rangefinder mechanism's performance.

 

MFT's 2x cropping factor is a huge waste of Leica optics and should never be considered as an alternative.

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Leica requires its dealers to maintain a full inventory, not just bits and pieces they want to sell

 

Oh, please!

 

In the Denver area there have been as many as six Leica dealers (and are still at least four) - and at NO TIME have any of them ever carried a full inventory of Leica products - not in the past 8 years - not even close.

 

At least one shop that gets regular visits from the Leica rep, and holds Leica Days has, at most, 1 M8 body, a couple of the cheapest lenses, and 1-2 of the available 4 PanaLeicas on the shelf at any one time.

 

Another stocks a few Leica lenses and Pannys, but no M8s at the moment.

 

They all still get full Leica support in terms of display stands and cards and brochures and so on.

 

At the very peak of the market, the largest inventory any of them ever stocked was 1-2 M bodies, an R body, and maybe 5 M-lenses and 4 R-lenses (again usually the less exotic and cheapest - 50s, 35 f/2, 24, 90, 80-200).

 

To borrow from Mark Twain, "“It isn’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you do know that just ain’t so!"

 

As to a dealer selling product at below Leica's minimum. It is not illegal, but it violates Leica's distribution agreement. Leica's recourse is to drop that dealer - but if the dealer has already dropped themselves, it's a moot point. Sort of a "You can't quit! You're fired!" situation.

 

As to Leica in today's economy - yes, I think Leica will have to do some serious soul-searching as to what it can sell and for how much. Does it (or they) go back to the "jewelry-that-takes-pictures" model that has already failed once? - or do they go back to the "M4-2 in Canada" model of building a basic functional tool as inexpensively as possible? Or do they come up with a whole new business model?

 

As to "fire sales" of dealers selling below MAP - or even below cost - to clear out inventory and gain cash flow: quite possible. I mentioned on a D3x thread a month or so ago that B&H was selling Canon 1DsIII bodies for $6,549, and Dave Farkas (I think it was) pointed out that that was below cost for that camera.

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Back when I purchased my Leica CL from Cal's Camera in Newport Beach, CA they were a huge Leica dealer with a large inventory of both new and used Leicas and lenses. Today, you would be lucky to find a DLUX 4 on the shelf. A year ago Samys in Santa Anna, CA had one whole counter devoted to Leica and a section of shelf, now the Leica counter is virtually gone and only a few Leica film cameras are on the shelf. These are the two big dealers in Southern CA. Newport Beach is a market of well-to-do consumers. If they can't sell there they have a problem.

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