Yes or No, Black or White is Leica going to make the R10?

[paulmoore]

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yeah that's what I am ignorant..then please enlighten me as to who would be first stringers?

and what is your point anyway to the first comment... yeah so they have to get the sensors from somewhere else.. your point is? take your time to express it as I would really like to learn.

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[Riley]

yeah that's what I am ignorant..then please enlighten me as to who would be first stringers?

 

implying a statement is made out of ignorance does not automatically imply that person is ignorant

first string are determined contractually and by ownership

as an example Delco Remy for GM, they are owned by GM

same used to be true of Chloride Batteries and Girlock brakes, but Im unsure if that still holds

 

and what is your point anyway to the first comment... yeah so they have to get the sensors from somewhere else.. your point is? take your time to express it as I would really like to learn.

 

specifically its more difficult to specify the component you want, ever more so if volumes are low. Where that is not true the price of customised builds is very high, this would be so with the M8 sensor, which is a fab that can still depend upon an amount of generic (already present) equipment to build the sensors.

 

Specifying a wildly different specification like a very different format such as you suggested requires new steppers and plant. This would be very, very expensive indeed, possibly a magnitude of 30x that of the M8.

[paulmoore]

sorry riley, but outside or an australian holden autoplant, any other gm worker would take 2nd string as second choice, not first rate.. regarding sensors, I think we all know that to have a custom sensor would be more expensive than one off the shelf.. I am glad you cleared that up..30x?.. I would have to be in the business of sensors to know how close you are on this one, but I'm sure you got that number from somewhere.. I still don't know your point unless it was just to clear up the sourcing of sensors and the likely expense they would be..but thanks for that.

[AlanG]

I have no idea what they will put out there, but this is what I would do if I was the leica ceo with carte blanche: The M is the small camera..the r is the big camera..make the new r with a larger than 35mm FF sensor, let go of the 6:9 proportion for 6:8., new FAST AF lenses,..adapter for old r mount with the ability to shoot traditional 35 FF with those rom lenses with focus confirmation...

 

Well maybe if they had carte blanche and didn't worry about selling enough of them to make a profit on the venture. But what you propose would require a lot of unique design and manufacturing. Including all new lens designs for a new format. There wouldn't be much support from second party lens makers either. And I have doubts that the end result would be worth it. I know two top photographers who gave up on MF digital because they felt that that overall, they could get better images more consistently with the 1DsIII. (The MF cameras are simply not as responsive or quick to focus, and 35mm has a number of other advantages for them.)

 

I don't see that Leica needs a unique niche product in the R10. But simply a camera that can keep up with the competition. What Canon, Nikon (especially when they release a higher pixel count model) and now Sony are doing looks more than good enough to me. Plus Pentax and others will surely not be too far behind.

 

As I said previously, I think they'll need to team up with Panasonic, Olympus (both?) or another manufacturer in order to get the resources to pull off production and MARKETING of this camera. (They'll have to sell a lot of them to justify the effort.) Otherwise, they'll be left in the dust by all of the Japanese companies who do seem to cross license and share their technology with each other. I think the Leica name may still have marketing value (especially on lenses) but what technology does Leica have to offer them? In the MF world Rollei, Sinar, and Leaf teamed up to produce an MF system that competes with Hasselblad and the jury is still out on whether it will succeed. They did not have to design new lenses, accessories or start completely from scratch. Lenses and some other parts from the 6008AF are used. Plus Leaf and Sinar already had the backs and digital capture technology. Likewise, Phase One and Mamiya have teamed up. Plus Phase One is also working with Microsoft. I can't imagine that Leica can go it alone.

[sdai]

I don't see that Leica needs a unique niche product in the R10. But simply a camera that can keep up with the competition. What Canon, Nikon (especially when they release a higher pixel count model) and now Sony are doing looks looks more than good enough to me.

 

I absolutely agree, Alan. Just build a 35mm FF DSLR of higher pixel count based on the R9. That's all we need.

 

As I said previously, I think they'll need to team up with Panasonic, Olympus (both?) or another manufacturer in order to get the resources to pull off production and MARKETING of this camera.

 

Unlike Panasonic, well established brands such as Olympus would gain nothing from the cooperation with Leica so they'll be much less interested.

 

The Japanese web site DC Watch has just interviewed Panasonic's top brass last week, from the reading, I think they've decided to part with Leica ... some major tips and hints:

 

Panasonic will focus on the TZ and FX series in compacts, so there will be no LX ... aka D Lux.

 

Panasonic will introduce their third DSLR at Photokina 2008 and they will not going to use the Leica brand, because for using the Leica brand, they'll have to maintain a certain level of standard and couldn't compete against others cost effectively, they see their forte as consumer electronics in the low cost low price mass market.

 

Canon, Nikon, Fuji, Sony ... will all have MAJOR announcements about DSLRs in this fall. From my own selfish perspective, I really hope this phantom "R10" good luck.

 

On another topic, the exposure pattern of a stepper can be adjusted and reprogrammed on site so you don't have to buy another stepper or build a new plant.

[Riley]

sorry riley, but outside or an australian holden autoplant, any other gm worker would take 2nd string as second choice, not first rate.. regarding sensors, I think we all know that to have a custom sensor would be more expensive than one off the shelf.. I am glad you cleared that up..30x?.. I would have to be in the business of sensors to know how close you are on this one, but I'm sure you got that number from somewhere.. I still don't know your point unless it was just to clear up the sourcing of sensors and the likely expense they would be..but thanks for that.

 

Holdens here employ second string manufactures for a variety of components, these would number in there dozens. Monroe Wiley shock absorbers, Camelec Cable, Henderson's for power seats, etc. This despite GM are a manufacturer that attempt to make as much componentry 'in house' as they can as opposed to Toyota's fuller and infamous kan-ban, aka just-in-time, that is derived from a system of manufacturing that employed many hundreds of family oriented businesses to supply components to what was really an assembly operation. The term second string comes from that system of kan-ban, which is rightly more universal.

 

The state of the art steppers need multiple sets. others speculation that they could produce a stepper to do it in one step, is true, but it would hardly justify the R&D. FF cameras can not justify the fixed cost. However looking at FF 35mm costs

 

Wafer cost $2500 ( 180 nm 200 mm wafer for a non-standard process) about 3 years ago a 180nm/200mm in volume was about $1,000 for a standard process)

Gross die per wafer 25

Net die (good) per wafer on a good day defect rate 40 defects per wafer

 

 

The cost of the develop the die and make a mask set is about $2,000,000 This is called the NRE and will be fixed over the life of the mask set

NRE per die based on total good die

 

Good Die cost/die (NRE)

10,000 $200

100,000 $20

1,000,000 $2

 

Now remember, you are attempting to justify these costs on a 1000 unit a month production rate camera, hence by eyeball estimate of 30x, it may well be much, much higher.

 

For a very large producer such as Canon, the total number of die needed, say 1,000,000 cameras, that comes down to 50,000 wafers or 500 per week over 2 years, that is not a market to dev. a new stepper. 500 wafers a week is about 2 to 3 full time steppers. That would make the cost of the new stepper just for this product at over $250,000,000 + each with the development costs, vs 25 million for the current 193 nm (dry) steppers (Canon technology)

 

It is far more reliable (to calculate as a cost so you can accurately price and not go broke) to contract a second string supplier for a more generic sensor run. You could make specifications that matter such as the strength or otherwise of the AA filter (if there is one) where an amount of customisation wont affect the existing plant, and therefore require an equipment suite overhaul, as such things can run into the billions. Sensors are developed on affordable technology, not the best that can be had, R10 will be no different.

[sdai]

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Canon doesn't use dry steppers, they build their own using liquid immersion technology.

[paulmoore]

look, I'm a photographer not a camera manufacture, I put out there a pie-in-the sky, what I would like to have to supplement my larger cameras..

I think Leica would have been history if not for its most valuable asset.. brand image. Yes,

remanufacturing a new system is expensive, but money can not buy you leicas branding.. and they have quality branding in spades, why does panasonic sell so many cameras?.. not because of panasonic but a lot of them have the leica brand on the lens..people make fun of the red dot, but the brand Leica is huge... not the company or the costumer base but the brand..Aston Martin will never make a mass production car. to the regrets of many car fans I'm sure who can't afford to buy a db9... I'm sure it cost a lot to make the db9 from the previous model and likewise, I'm sure the r10 is will be just as stunning.

I'm not talking about reinventing the wheel, but Leica has it's brand to protect and doing something for the masses is not going to cut it in the long run.. they already went down that minolta path and felt the pain.

[sdai]

remanufacturing a new system is expensive, but money can not buy you leicas branding.. and they have quality branding in spades, why does panasonic sell so many cameras?.. not because of panasonic but a lot of them have the leica brand on the lens..

 

I think it's only a matter of time when Dr. Kaufmann will flip the brand to a Japanese company, before that, he will work something out to make it look worth a while and demand a good sell price from any potential buyer.

 

I believe that Panasonic has at a certain point of time showed huge interest in buying some outstanding shares of Leica and even take control of the company. I remember in the last press release when Panasonic and Leica announced their cooperation on digital cameras, it was mentioned that "mutual holding of shares" were not included or discussed ... something like that.

[paulmoore]

I think it's only a matter of time when Dr. Kaufmann will flip the brand to a Japanese company, before that, he will work something out to make it look worth a while and demand a good sell price from any potential buyer.

 

I don't really care who the parent company is as long a the brand and quality product survive

and if the only way to do that is to sell to a larger company, then do it.

Leica is a luxury goods brand, it can survives as a break even or money loser to a corporate

office who gain from the relationship.

I think it is short sighted and unkind to portray Dr. Kaufmann as someone who would "flip"

the company. Anyone involved like he is with Leica, are there not to just make a buck. We aren't talking about a bunch of disinterested hedge fund managers.

[sdai]

I think it is short sighted and unkind to portray Dr. Kaufmann as someone who would "flip"

the company. Anyone involved like he is with Leica, are there not to just make a buck. We aren't talking about a bunch of disinterested hedge fund managers.

 

I'm sure Dr. Kaufmann bought the company with the intention to run it as a money making business, not as a money burning hobby. If flipping it can maximize his profit, why doesn't he do it?

 

By any definition, flip is not a bad word ... and this has nothing to do with hedge fund managers.

 

Jaguar/Range Rover are flipped to Tata, is that a bad thing to Ford?

[hdg]

Yes, I think there will be a R10 very soon. But there seems to be a certain idea that it will need another lence-system and not the existing R-lences because of the 24x36 mm sensor (or higher).

 

Regards Hans

[paulmoore]

I'm sure Dr. Kaufmann bought the company with the intention to run it as a money making business, not as a money burning hobby. If flipping it can maximize his profit, why doesn't he do it?

 

By any definition, flip is not a bad word ... and this has nothing to do with hedge fund managers.

 

Jaguar/Range Rover are flipped to Tata, is that a bad thing to Ford?

 

 

no, "flip" by definition it's not a bad word, but the context and implication is one of indifference, I flip pancakes, or if I was in the habit of making money from buying and selling houses, I would flip them, no not a bad thing.. but your home, now that is not flipped, but sold.. if you get my meaning. This being an international community I think the english language is misread and the subleties are sometimes missed by all parties.

 

hedge fund managers are impartial to the companies, they look at p&l sheets don't even see the employess of companies they invest in...and out of.. they are flippers...that is the connection I was trying to make.

[lct]

[rosuna]

The Japanese web site DC Watch has just interviewed Panasonic's top brass last week, from the reading, I think they've decided to part with Leica ... some major tips and hints:

 

Panasonic will focus on the TZ and FX series in compacts, so there will be no LX ... aka D Lux.

 

Panasonic will introduce their third DSLR at Photokina 2008 and they will not going to use the Leica brand, because for using the Leica brand, they'll have to maintain a certain level of standard and couldn't compete against others cost effectively, they see their forte as consumer electronics in the low cost low price mass market.

 

Do you have a link? An English version of this interview? It seems to be very, very interesting.

[sdai]

Do you have a link? An English version of this interview? It seems to be very, very interesting.

 

It's in Japanese and too long to translate just for the purpose of a casual post in the forum:

 

Panasonic Talks About Future Cameras

 

In short, when asked if the 3rd Panasonic DSLR is the successor of L10, the guys says it's going to be different and they will avoid to be directly compared to Canon, Nikon ... etc.

 

To achieve a good balance between cost and balance, they'd rather use their Lumix brand instead of Leica brand, but they also want everybody know that Panasonic can build high performance, high quality lenses as well. They won't cut corners even for the free kit lens.

[rosuna]

Many thanks sdai.

 

Very interesting! It implies the end of the cooperation between Leica and Panasonic. A new type of cooperation could be stablished, but the relationship we know seems to be broken. No more Leica branded lenses in Panasonic cameras... No more Leica branded cameras made by Panasonic?

[mooky]

I'm afraid I lean toward paulmoore's idea of the next R, it is after all, close to what Mr. Kaufmann had intimated last fall. It would put them apart from the standard SLR crowd.

 

Would it sell? If it was price competitive with top Canon's and Nikon's....Too, they are perfectly capable (and have to anyway) of 'subbing out' the sensor to Kodak or someone else. As I have been using Leica's and Pentax 67 and Hasselblad, the idea of a multi-use/slightly larger sensor body where I could still use my R lenses is appealing.

 

I would rather see them innovating right now - as long as it works - Leica has tradition with the M and always will. I have been trying to read into Kaufmann's comments of last year - I won't nay-say anything - I hope they are successful with the R10.

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[sdai]

... No more Leica branded cameras made by Panasonic?

 

The guy didn't mention about this so it's anybody's guess but I recall Dr. Kaufmann has said somewhere (perhaps in Olaf's interview) that Leica will focus on high profile products "Made In Germany" ... I can't remember his exact phrasing but it should be something pretty close.

 

By the way, I meant to write "good balance between cost and performance" in my post ... too many (quick) edits.

[sdai]

I would rather see them innovating right now - as long as it works -

 

A new mount Frankenstein camera will not work.

 

High end 35mm FF ... US $ 8000 now (1Ds Mark III)

Low end medium format (digital) ... US $ 9000 now (ZD, 503 CWD)

 

Where do you position the bigger than 35mm but smaller than medium format new Leica "SLR" (not R)?

 

The DMR has been quite successful in fact, all units were sold, right? I bet if they had built another 5000, or even 10000 units, they would still be sold.

 

That's what will work.

 

Of course, if all they want is to get people talk about the new system ... a sales record of 10, or maybe 100 units will be enough to make them happy.