Slightly OT: Does Mac have a Future?

[wlaidlaw]

Advertisement (gone after registration)

OS X is a closed and proprietary operating system, as such Apple owns all rights to it and so far hasn't licensed its use to any other computer maker / assembler. Steve Jobs has been extremely adamant that Apple will never go down that path again. The only good solution in his eyes are hardware and software designed together. As a long time apple user and developer I can't argue with that.

 

Joe,

 

I am pretty sure there was one other computer using OSX. I have seen references to it. I seem to recall it is a specialist, expensive thing for industrial applications i.e. not a competitor to the mainstream Mac products. I have searched but currently can't find anything.

 

Wilson

[luigi bertolotti]

I have been in the IT market from 1982.. and stiil it's my business ... and I have never sold or personally owned a Mac... given this :

 

1) I never heard a Mac user to declare himself unsatisfied about the platform in itself.

2) I've always heard people that complain about Windows platform : a strong and recurrent mood is "ok, anyway we have to use it...in someway you can manage..."

 

And the above are my feedbacks from the corporate market : I'm not in the "home user-soho" business, so I have not significant feedbacks from a market that is rather difficult to scrutinize and to consolidate satisfaction data from; but there is a general impression that home Mac users are strongly loyal to the brand: even if Mac has about 5% of the PC market, I suspect it's more in the Home/Personal Office use (and don't forget they have >70% of the market in certain applications), and, above all, this market share has A VALUE much higher than, say the 12-15% of Lenovo or Acer or something, because it brings with itself an added value that is simply absent from the standard Intel/Microsoft platforms. To finish with a very limited example : I'm starting with M8... and consider that my home 17" notebook is 2,5 years old... I invested just 150 Euros or so in RAM and SD reader, surely WON'T INSTALL VISTA... and think that when time to change shall arrive, is possible I consider a Mac... photo is probably becoming the principal task of my home PC... and everybody knows that generally speaking "Macs are great on graphics"; and heard also 3 or 4 friends of mine, no Mac users, that also start to think of...

 

I would bet that in the coming years Mac share in home use shall GROW : techies use a lot Linux at home, for they can play with tons of free Software: but people like me (I'm in the IT biz, I said, but I'm definitely not a nerd) value a lot robustness and stability of the platform, and this is the field in which I think Mac is excellent. And the I Phone is, by me, a very smart FIRST move towards a market that is poised to grow a lot: intelligent mobile devices; they have done well to enter with a device that at the moment is clearly stated as A PHONE and no more : phones can be sold in millions of units, and if they would have tried to launch something more exotic, maybe even more "new", the risk would have been a lot bigger (think at some phone/PDAs from Nokia... I had one... nah nah); it will be the USERS that eventually start to use it as something more than a phone... and then Apple shall be ready to deliver other devices more tuned to the kinds of use people are looking for... in marketing terms, I think this is the right approach to really deliver the overexposed DIGITAL MOBILE CONVERGENCE lot of vendors speak of... Apple can be the Company that becomes the leader in this market (for personal/home users) WITHOUT even speaking of it... and this can dramatically increase the sales of the Mac : user interface, for obvious reasons, is more critical in mobile devices than on home PC : if I find a "mobile devices chain" that really satisfies me, I prefer to CHANGE my home PC interface than vice versa.

[wstotler]

I've just been to Apple's website to download 10.4.10 (new month so I can start downloading again as I reached my cap in June) and I just get the feeling that the Mac is moving ever further to the back seat. Looking at the website, you would say Apple make phones and music players. Just wondering if any other Mac users out there feel the same way.

 

I've posted in other threads here mentioning that Apple is shifting to become a consumer electronics and media company--they're not really going toe-to-toe with somebody like Microsoft anymore but instead are going toe-to-toe with somebody like Sony.

 

While I don't see the Mac just vanishing (there is profit in it) I do see Apple's focus shifting away somewhat from "desktop computing" and into other areas. The computing will still *be* there but I also think the emphasis won't be on computers--it will be on "uncomputering" computing. Right now the emphasis is on digital players and media because Apple knows people don't care about computers (like most people don't care about T.V.s)--they care about what computers and other devices can show them (content) or do *for* them.

 

I would say that a previous comment in this thread about Ive was really astute--Apple is selling brand and user experience, leveraging that to extend beyond the desktop.

 

Here's a thought that occurred to me yesterday as I was playing with my iPhone: It IS NOT a phone, really--it's an "always-on-Internet" and digital media appliance.

 

Of course, Apple can't sell an "always-on-Internet" digital media appliance effectively but they can sell "an iPod that has a phone and some other cool features, like Web browsing."

 

Anyone who buys an iPhone is buying an Apple computer--stripped down to do key tasks most consumers actually want to use computers for: Showing Photos, Sending/Receiving Email, browsing the Web, Video, etc. It's not a computer replacement for many of us, but I will bet that the under-20s without much interest in desktop computing BUT with strong interest in their cell phones becoming like computers may find this as their computing platform of choice for doing what they do--consuming and sharing consumption.

 

Rant off--in short, yes, the Desktop Computing emphasis isn't there for Apple like it was. But I don't think it will just "die" anytime soon.

 

I was wrong about the M8 Aperture support--I didn't think Apple was going to support RAW/DNG because of the size of the userbase--so I could be wrong about this too. . . . But I think I'm on target about their market approach, which is very successful at the moment.

[jquimby]

Joe,

 

I am pretty sure there was one other computer using OSX. I have seen references to it. I seem to recall it is a specialist, expensive thing for industrial applications i.e. not a competitor to the mainstream Mac products. I have searched but currently can't find anything.

 

Wilson

 

Nope. Apple has not licensed OS X to anyone. I am an apple developer, trust me, i would know about it. Anyone wanting to run OS X (legally) has to have Apple hardware otherwise it won't boot.

[Steve C]

Steve Jobs is a master of the "under promise over deliver" business model.

It works in every situation. Just look at Pixar it set the standards for Animation. So much so that Disney paid a fortune (When compared to earnings) for the company.

Jobs set a goal to sell 1 million iPhones in the first year. ( Apple sold 525,000 units this weekend.)

The Mac computers still form the heart of the company and form the platform for all other products. Those of us who use Mac in the graphics area have the best platform available.

While Apples market share is small. They are highly profitable.

Don't worry, there will be Mac computers for a very long time.

Now if they would just port Aperture to the iphone..............

[wlaidlaw]

Nope. Apple has not licensed OS X to anyone. I am an apple developer, trust me, i would know about it. Anyone wanting to run OS X (legally) has to have Apple hardware otherwise it won't boot.

 

Joe,

 

Could it have been back in the days of OS 8 or 9 - my doesn't time fly?

 

Wilson

[jquimby]

Advertisement (gone after registration)

Joe,

 

Could it have been back in the days of OS 8 or 9 - my doesn't time fly?

 

Wilson

 

Actually, yes back in the mid to late 90's (95 to 97 to be exact) you could buy clone hardware and run mac os 7 but then Jobs came back (when then apple ceo amelio bought Next computing...) and killed off the clone program.

 

the closest thing i have seen was a company whose name eludes me right now that is buying apple macbooks, replacing the screens with touch screen mounted backwards and calling them tablets... they previewed them at macworld 07 in January. not really licensing or cloning but still interesting...

[jquimby]

Just look at Pixar it set the standards for Animation. So much so that Disney paid a fortune (When compared to earnings) for the company.

 

 

Just some food for thought...

 

Steve Jobs bought Pixar from George Lucas in 1986 for a meager 5 million dollars, Disney paid 7.4 billion dollars in 2006... not a bad return for a 20 year investment.

[Guest sirvine]

If anything will undo Apple, it will be their increasing reliance on the corporate evildoers that enable their technologies. Specifically, the major labels and RIAA on iTunes Music Store, and AT&T on the iPhone. No matter what, though, I believe the Mac lineup will continue to succeed because the competition is so inept in so many ways. Dell, Compaq, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft, Sony...can any of these companies claim any goodwill in the user community at this point?

[guidomo]

Steve Jobs is a master of the "under promise over deliver" business model.

 

You are not serious, right? Ever seen a Jobs Keynote? They deliver a lot but he promises at least as much

[guidomo]

Steve Jobs bought Pixar from George Lucas in 1986 for a meager 5 million dollars, Disney paid 7.4 billion dollars in 2006... not a bad return for a 20 year investment.

 

Well, he did more for the company than just invest in it.

[hankg]

Apple has become a consumer electronics company a la Sony. While iPod sales are driving Mac computer sales Apple's focus and resources are on the iPhones and iPods. The good thing is this will keep Apple solvent and growing -the minus- computer development resources will be diverted to consumer products whenever a product like the iPhone is launching.

 

I like Mac's. I've got a Mac and a PC. But when I replace the Mac desktop it will be with a PC. Adobe requires 2 licenses for the 2 OS's and I'm tired of paying to update twice for my Adobe Creative Suite plus for the price of a Mac desktop I can get an equally powerful PC desktop + a 750GB Raid 5 array for archival storage in the PC. The computer really doesn't matter -it's the software that I interface with and use.

[MitchoIankov]

I used Macs in the past. Yes, they were superior up until and including Windows 95. From then on they are not. I was most annoyed when a program (freeware or paid for) was Windows only. Unfortunately, with 5% market share many software companies cannot be bordered with Mac. It is the same for hardware (windows drivers only is quite common).

 

Looking into the future, that trend will continue. There will be less choice of software for Mac users and that will lead to even smaller market share and eventually extinction of the Mac desktop.

[whorg]

The I-Phone is an over priced, bloated multi-function device. Their network is amongst the slowest in current trends.

 

I predict this device to fail.

 

~jk

[hankg]

I used Macs in the past. Yes, they were superior up until and including Windows 95. From then on they are not. I was most annoyed when a program (freeware or paid for) was Windows only. Unfortunately, with 5% market share many software companies cannot be bordered with Mac. It is the same for hardware (windows drivers only is quite common).

 

Looking into the future, that trend will continue. There will be less choice of software for Mac users and that will lead to even smaller market share and eventually extinction of the Mac desktop.

 

Apples consumer products have Mac computer sales growing faster then ever. The average consumer doesn't care about any application other then those that came with the computer and Apples consumer oriented software is tops. Many predicted the iPod would flop as its technology was not all that impressive and it was over-priced, now they are saying the same about the iPhone. Apples audience now is not the small group of computer nerds who argue about such things it's the average consumer and with that group (MP3 players) they are kicking the butt of the windows based competition.

 

So I may be buying a PC but I still think Steve Jobs has done a great job at Apple and the only thing that could trip them up now is a badly handled transition when Jobs retires.

[Guest sirvine]

There is a lot of momentum behind the belief that Macs "just work". In truth, OS X is full of problems, and has been since the beginning. A short list:

 

1) The finder just sucks beyond belief. Anyone who uses Quicksilver knows what Apple could have done (and don't even mention Spotlight to me in defense of this point). I hate the OS X finder, and often resort to CLI to get things done rather than wading through the mess of windows. Just the fact that the maximize button won't work properly says it all. Or what about being able to manipulate the file system from within save or open dialogues? (Even Windows has done that forever.)

 

2) Networking on a Mac might be easier than on other off-the-shelf PCs, but it's still terrible. Anyone else had the lovely experience of trying to get the Airport Setup Assistant or that other Airport utility to even see a router that's ten feet away? How about when one Apple utility sees your router, but the other doesn't? Or when you have to hit "rescan" a few bazillion times to capture a signal that is loud and clear on a Dell laptop? And it isn't the Airport cards at fault, because I'm dealing with more than one client machine simultaneously. And what about the incredible Rendezvous support? How come the other devices on my LAN don't just appear in the Finder? I have to type in the local IP address under Go>Go to Server... to even bookmark LAN devices? Isn't that the whole point of Bonjour/Rendezvous? Talk about overpromising...

 

3) Applecare support is just another finger-pointing, shoulder shrugging anti-consumer post-sale "support" scam.

 

4) Apple changes proprietary cabling all the time. Want to replace the DVI connector between your 30" LCD and the desktop machine? That'll be a gazillion dollars for an all in one cable, please. What you wanted to use the keyboard extension cable as a USB extension cable? No, no, we put a little freaking notch in there to prevent that from happening. How many more stupid iPod connector generations will we endure? (The first, and best, one was straight firewire.)

 

5) Even the parts that could be upgraded, can't be upgraded. Ever try upgrading the graphics card in your desktop Mac? Apple makes things like this next to impossible. Sure, they need to police the upgrades to some extent, but why not just tell us which models they will support and where to get them. Otherwise, everything like this gets treated as a service call for Apple.

 

Bah. Apple used to be so great, and now they're just the lesser of many evils.

[4season]

The short answer to Andrea's original question is: Yes, the Macintosh is doomed, and in fact it has been doomed for at least 20 years, just like Leica

[ptruman]

The Mac has plenty of life left in it and what we're seeing from Apple is lots of innovation that will ultimately find its way into new generation devices. There could be some convergence given that Apple have moved to Intel for its CPUs - that Windows can now run properly on a Mac suggests this may become more prevalent (I wonder how often you then get that blue screen on a Mac?!!!). However, I use the Mac for non-work stuff so I can truly separate home from work, and for me this works really well. Given the increase in Mac sales, they are most unlikely to kill that off for some considerable time - but just five years is a very long time in computer time!

 

I understand that Apple Computer Inc became Apple Inc to reflect the fact that it does not just do computers anymore.

[Steve C]

You are not serious, right? Ever seen a Jobs Keynote? They deliver a lot but he promises at least as much

 

There are no promises in his Keynote address (except for the early talk on Apple TV).

With the above exception not one single promise. He is showing the new products and features that exist. He is a master at getting people excited but no one at Apple ever talks about future products or do they promise anything at all.

What I was speaking about was his business model and forcasts have always been understated.

As one person said the iphone will fail. What has he been smoking? They sold over a half a million phones in 2 days. Apple has already broken even on the project in 2 days. And we all know that version 2 is already being manufactured. Sounds like echos from the same folks who said the ipod was doomed... too expensive.,,,

And remember all the talk about Aperture not supporting the Leica M8. Well no promises they just delivered!

So Apple users rest well the Mac will be around for a while.

[Advertisement]

Hallo,

Look here: Leica M

[cwf]

If I read right, I remember thinking it was significant (the computer, espec. Mac,

is core) that the iPhone could not be activated at the telco store, but instead had to be taken home to be initialized from a computer. I think I read today that something like 2% of users are having a problem (when presumably none would have left a store until activation were successful had it been done there).