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Sizing Up the Future


lars_bergquist

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My twitching right thumb has finally come to rest. I need a thumb lever as much as I need a M with a hand-cranked generator.

 

 

Hand cranked generator? Meaning as you lever cock the shutter, it also spins up a small generator that charges the battery, allowing charger-independent operation? To whom do I give my deposit for that please?

 

:) :) :)

 

-jk

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Hand cranked generator? Meaning as you lever cock the shutter, it also spins up a small generator that charges the battery, allowing charger-independent operation?

 

Do the maths. I don't have a film M to hand so I used a Nikon F because it doesn't have either a particularly short or particularly light wind lever travel. The lever is about 40mm long, travels about 180 degrees and needs a force of about 5N (a bit over 0.5 kgf) to move it. This means that the energy for one stroke of the lever is of the order of 0.04 * pi * 5 joules, say 0.6 joules.

 

Mark Norton showed in his power consumption thread that the M8 draws about 200mA when idling and 600mA or more when active (shutter button half-pressed, writing to card etc.) and a lot more while winding the shutter. 200mA at the nominal 3.7V of the M8/9 battery is about 0.7 watts - which is 0.7 joules per second.

 

In other words just to keep a M8 idling you'd need to thumb the wind lever about once a second - and triple that while it was taking a shot, processing it and writing it to the card. And that's assuming 100% efficient dynamo, power management and energy storage. The M9 is generally believed to have about the same power needs.

 

Assume generously that the M10 needs only 10% of the power of the M8 (therefore no live view, wifi, GPS, electronic framelines or what have you) and you'd still have to crank every few seconds to keep the camera alive.

 

Sod that for a game of soldiers!

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I understand they say they aren't going to do this - but I think it's a big mistake - I've spent a great deal of time with both m4/3,NEX with the new sensors in the OMD and the G3, there really isn't a significant IQ advantage with the APS/c sensor, but there is an obvious size advantage with respect to lenses.

 

This entire thread has been about blinkered ideas of what is going to be acceptable for a Leica audience, yet with no common sense as to what this new camera will look like. So it will have tiny bodies and proportionately gigantic lenses, an APS-C sensor that is much larger than it needs to be for the same image quality, and it will be yet another stand alone system competing with all the other bigger players.

 

Leica haven't got a hope in hell if they follow 99% of what this thread suggests, but if nothing else I think dreaming has been proven as easy work. It is fun to see how people would squander Leica's brand image and resources in competing with the big manufacturers, when competition isn't needed at all. There is an open door to create a succesful niche within the m4/3 envelope, with partners already established who share Leica's commitment to top quality lenses and bodies. I can't see why it is so difficult to understand that.

 

Steve

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Florian and Giordano – I was of course joking about a hand-cranked generator, like that on the emergency radio that is standing on a table in this room.

 

Shutter noise? You are the only person who is standing with his face pressed to your camera. I propose the following simple experiment. Set the shutter to delayed action. Set the camera down on a non-resonating, preferably padded surface. Press the shutter release and move 2–3 meters away. With a normal level of background noise – and I am not talking of a cocktail party – you will scarcely notice the sound, even though you are expecting it. People who are not expecting it do not react at all.

 

And the shutter sound of my M4-P is quite loud compared to that of the Compur shutter of my Retina IIIC. Even so, the sound of the film transport/shutter tensioning is actually louder than that of the shutter release. The fact remains that all three are below the 'alarm threshold' while most DSLR cameras are above it. And a film SLR with a motor drive ...

 

The old man from the Stick Shift Age

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There is still development potential in the M concept, and I think we will see that in September. But long term, Leica must have a 'breakout camera' and re-conquer the Leica Ethos and part of its old market. We do not know what the Chinese noveau riche will want to flaunt in ten or even five years, so Leica must diversify out of the luxury goods market.

 

Given this, I have yet to see any arguments to convince me either that the 'breakout camera' will have a 24x36 sensor, or that Leica will build a m4/5 camera before there is slalom in Hell. And I think that they should do neither.

 

I repeat my argument about Barnack and the early 35mm cameras that preceded the Leica I, or even the Ur-Leica. They are forgotten now because Barnack re-defined 'miniature photography' as it was then called. Does Leica Camera AG have a Barnack today? Well, maybe a collective Barnack. They are pretty good at thinking outside the box.

 

The old man from the Kodachrome Age

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It is fun to see how people would squander Leica's brand image and resources in competing with the big manufacturers, when competition isn't needed at all.

So what is Leica's brand image?

 

I'd suggest that if you discount sports optics, Leica has a brand image of supplying extremely high quality optics for a rangefinder system together with digital rangefinder cameras. Film cameras are history, brand image speaking and I'd guess that sales of film cameras are a very, very small part of Leica's business these days. Beyond that its 'advanced' badge engineering together with high quality lens design I'm afraid.

 

So anything that Leica produce in future will have to build on the base of high quality, high cost rangefinders with IMHO a great deal of legacy built in for its lenses. To do otherwise would mean breaking into a new market and, without legacy potential, alienating existing users (for an example think R!).

 

Personally, I cannot see a foreseeable future in which Leica drop the M rangefinder concept - which has done them well for a very long time.

 

All that said, I can't read the future either:D.

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Florian and Giordano – I was of course joking about a hand-cranked generator, like that on the emergency radio that is standing on a table in this room.

 

Shutter noise? You are the only person who is standing with his face pressed to your camera. I propose the following simple experiment. Set the shutter to delayed action. Set the camera down on a non-resonating, preferably padded surface. Press the shutter release and move 2–3 meters away. With a normal level of background noise – and I am not talking of a cocktail party – you will scarcely notice the sound, even though you are expecting it. People who are not expecting it do not react at all.

 

This lady looked around when I clicked my M9. She noticed all right...

 

 

 

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Florian and Giordano – I was of course joking about a hand-cranked generator, like that on the emergency radio that is standing on a table in this room.

 

Oh man, what a disappointment! I already had my R3M out practicing my generator-winding stroke and almost kicked my M8's charger into the garbage :D

 

PS. I did get the joke, I was joking myself :)

 

All I really want from the next M is a chrome M9P with an M3 finder. Probably won't get it :(

 

I'm not at all worried about Leica's future as I had to wait 6 months to get my Summilux, and these guys are presumably making them as fast as they can. All Leica has to do for the foreseeable future is keep making the M9P the way they are now and use a current generation sensor. They'll be fine, EVIL or no EVIL.

 

PPS. I also think the EVIL, if/when it comes, will be APS-H, and I would welcome that.

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There is still development potential in the M concept, and I think we will see that in September. But long term, Leica must have a 'breakout camera' and re-conquer the Leica Ethos and part of its old market.

 

Further to Lars comments, by breakout, it does not have to emulate the Japanese. Look at what Patek Philippe is doing. Every year they bring out new innovations in engineering and watchmaking complications. Handcrafted, high quality, superlative design and much sought after. Leica can continue to do this for the foreseeable future and their cameras will continue to have a robust market.

 

Can Leica introduce a camera better and smaller than the M, with better optical quality and with a superior concept than what most of the forum members are speculating? I think they can and I have full confidence in the folks at Leica being able to pull it off.

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Guest malland

I am afraid that all these comparisons that people endlessly like to make between Leica and watches like Patek Philippe or Rolexes and cars like Porsche or Ferrari or comparers have little relevance, for these markets are very different.

 

—Mitch/Chiang Mai

Scratching the Surface©

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I am afraid that all these comparisons that people endlessly like to make between Leica and watches ... have little relevance, for these markets are very different.

I wonder if top end watchmakers are bothered by people like myself who use an iPhone instead of wearing a watch?:D

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Shutter noise? You are the only person who is standing with his face pressed to your camera. I propose the following simple experiment. Set the shutter to delayed action. Set the camera down on a non-resonating, preferably padded surface. Press the shutter release and move 2–3 meters away. With a normal level of background noise – and I am not talking of a cocktail party – you will scarcely notice the sound, even though you are expecting it. People who are not expecting it do not react at all.

 

Not sure if this is also addressed at my comments, echoed by some others, regarding the sound of digital Ms. To repeat, it has nothing to do with the shutter sound; that, as you say, is very quiet, not dissimilar from a film M and hardly noticeable to others.

 

The distracting sound is the obnoxiously loud motor noise after the shutter releases. And, no, the discreet setting does nothing other than delay the inevitable loud whirring sound.

 

M6 /M7 sound....click.

 

M8 / M9 sound....click....whirrrrr

 

The click ain't the issue.

 

Jeff

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{snipped}

All sensors are 'cropped' compared to any larger sensor. So what? 35mm was 'cropped' in comparison to 120 roll film, and boy, we heard it! But I didn't hate it. When working with a good APS-C camera, I do not hate it because it is not 'full format'. As with 35mm, I simply try to get the most out of it.

 

Lars--that's ridiculous. No successful film system severely cropped off its own lens strengths. That's exactly what you'd be doing by putting an $8K 50 APO Summicron on a 1.5x crop sensor.

 

You wanna do it? Fine. So far, that kind of stuff is a bore to me (and I'm Jono on the ergonomics of adaptation as well; even R lenses on an M are a bit ridiculous in the hand, even if it's a less silly match).

 

Here follows a wish list that is pretty disparate. I can agree with some of the points – weather resistance, a better screen. But frankly, most of them reveal a certain lack of understanding of either technical or economic facts, or both, accompanied my much hand waving: Allah will provide for the faithful.

 

Hand waving and (a subtle kick to) religious zealousness in my post? Holy heck--you really are an old man. Go buy an iPhone if you don't think augmented reality exists. Go look at what Canon has done in its screenless dSLRs to improve the optical path.

 

Anyway, I suppose we can forgive an "old man" some memory loss and lack of perspective when it comes to the future: a decade ago, Leica themselves said a digital rangefinder was an impossibility. Uh-huh.

 

But try to lose the bigotry, Lars; it doesn't sit well with your paternal crustiness :)

 

Especially the belief that Leica lens manufacture could be turned over to some outfit like Foxconn (notorious because its Chinese employees commit suicide) strikes me as rather too unworldly.

 

Sure--because notorious practice would have to be inherited by Leica and it's also going to stop Chinese manufacturing and no more high tech devices will be built there. And you think *I'm* naive? :rolleyes:

 

Leica has to think about their production model, like any other manufacturer these days. I don't think that's a matter of religious belief but just an economic fact.

 

OTH, Leica can stay a niche manufacturer. That's fine with me, actually, but it means that fewer and fewer photographers will be taking them seriously, and hand-made in Gernany (barring some economic catastrophe, of course) won't get you to your Barnack, or anything even close to it.

 

And FWIW, I wasn't arguing against your wholly imaginary system--though I don't care much about it right now. I was only saying that there's lots of places to improve the M, and there are, including the sound of the shutter + motor drive. Some of us aren't taking pictures at cocktail parties.

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Not sure if this is also addressed at my comments, echoed by some others, regarding the sound of digital Ms. To repeat, it has nothing to do with the shutter sound; that, as you say, is very quiet, not dissimilar from a film M and hardly noticeable to others.

 

The distracting sound is the obnoxiously loud motor noise after the shutter releases. And, no, the discreet setting does nothing other than delay the inevitable loud whirring sound.

 

M6 /M7 sound....click.

 

M8 / M9 sound....click....whirrrrr

 

The click ain't the issue.

 

Jeff

 

Do you think that the camera will not rewind the shutter after releasing it on delayed action? But of course it does. So your response proves that you haven't bothered to do the test – if you had, you would have heard it all.

 

And people are just as far away from the 'whirr' as from the 'click'. My comment applies to both. The sound of my M9 has not attracted attention in any real situation I have been on. The photographer's behaviour is more apt to cause alarm than the camera's. Please find a better argument.

 

The old man from the Compur Age

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Well, my example where it DID attract attention for instance? And it was the click, not the whirr btw.And in town, with traffic noise in the background. Don't get me wrong, I do not mind the sound, if I want to be silent I'll take the D2, but it is not unnoticable.

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Oh how I wish people would listen to what I say before they make themselves into self-righteous ( … ).

 

Lars--that's ridiculous. No successful film system severely cropped off its own lens strengths. That's exactly what you'd be doing by putting an $8K 50 APO Summicron on a 1.5x crop sensor.

 

You wanna do it? Fine. So far, that kind of stuff is a bore to me (and I'm Jono on the ergonomics of adaptation as well; even R lenses on an M are a bit ridiculous in the hand, even if it's a less silly match).

 

If you had read what I have been writing you would have discovered that I have emphatically NOT demanded that the proposed C-size camera would use M lenses primarily. I have said it expressly before and I say it again: That camera must have its own line of lenses simply because they have to be autofocusing. M compatibility – native or by an adapter – is an extra.

 

Hand waving and (a subtle kick to) religious zealousness in my post? Holy heck--you really are an old man. Go buy an iPhone if you don't think augmented reality exists. Go look at what Canon has done in its screenless dSLRs to improve the optical path.

 

People do seem to think that whatever they want, the Technology Fairy will duly deliver. If not today, so at least the next quarter. How? No matter. The faithful will be provided for.

 

Anyway, I suppose we can forgive an "old man" some memory loss and lack of perspective when it comes to the future: a decade ago, Leica themselves said a digital rangefinder was an impossibility. Uh-huh.

 

But try to lose the bigotry, Lars; it doesn't sit well with your paternal crustiness :)

 

And at that time, it was impossible. Yes, but only technically impossible. No natural laws have been abrogated in order to bring out the M9. You do not seem to understand the difference. And yes, I am a bigot because I persist in believing in something like reality, that cannot be arbitrarily remodeled (because that would not be science or even technology, but magic.) Very irksome idea, that. Does put a crimp on your act. We have heard for a generation now that reality does not exist but is just a 'discourse' that can be changed at our pleasure. How? By professorial fiat, by a vote in the Security Council, or by the spin doctors with the loudest loudspeakers?

 

Sure--because notorious practice would have to be inherited by Leica and it's also going to stop Chinese manufacturing and no more high tech devices will be built there. And you think *I'm* naive? :rolleyes:

 

Leica has to think about their production model, like any other manufacturer these days. I don't think that's a matter of religious belief but just an economic fact.

 

All manufacture is not created equal. Assembly of e.g. iPads is a simple, repetitive procedure using pre-fabricated and pre-assembled parts that in themselves have been made largely automatically. The only reason that this is still done by human hands is that Chinese sweatshop labour is still cheaper than robots. Assembling a Leica M lens is slightly different, to say the least. It is just as much an adjustment as an assembly process and takes highly motivated and trained personnel.

 

A manufacturer like Canon can design their products with the loose tolerances and acceptance criteria of robot assembly. Because nobody objects however large and clumsy such a product is. If Leica Camera would try to do this, they would go out of business.

 

OTH, Leica can stay a niche manufacturer. That's fine with me, actually, but it means that fewer and fewer photographers will be taking them seriously, and hand-made in Gernany (barring some economic catastrophe, of course) won't get you to your Barnack, or anything even close to it.

 

And FWIW, I wasn't arguing against your wholly imaginary system--though I don't care much about it right now. I was only saying that there's lots of places to improve the M, and there are, including the sound of the shutter + motor drive. Some of us aren't taking pictures at cocktail parties.

 

Oh my God, again this wilful illiteracy. Where did I say that manufacture had to ne done by hand in Germany? And where did I say I took my pictures at cocktail parties? I did in fact write that I am NOT talking of the sound level at cocktail parties! Does it matter what I actually say?

 

The old man from the Age of Crusty Grand-Paternal Bigotry (formerly known as 'realism')

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