Consecutive Serial Numbers?

[pico]

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How common is it to find/buy Leica M bodies with consecutive serial numbers?

 

I've two M4s that are in strictly user-condition - pretty beat up - but with consecutive numbers. I use them in bad weather rather carelessly.

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[dkCambridgeshire]

There were 47191 chrome M4 cameras manufactured and you bought one. Then you bought another of the remaining 47190 - the chances of you having a consecutive serial number would be 2 in 47190 = 1 in 23595 as there are two cameras each having a consecutive serial number - ie one with a consecutive higher number - and one with a consecutive but lower number ... unless your original purchase is the first or last of the SN sequence(s) - in which case the chance is 1 in 47190.

 

Thus knowing the total number produced X the formula is 2: (X-1) or, 1: (X-1) if your SN is at the beginning or end of the sequence.

 

Thus if you have two consecutively serial numbered M4 chrome bodies, the chance of you finding them was probably 23595:1 ... but it could possibly, but rather unlikely be, 47190:1 if your original camera was the first or last chrome M4 produced ... assuming nobody else already had two or more consecutively numbered bodies?

 

But expect an experienced statistician might have a different point of view if I have not covered all the permutations ... eg I have not allowed for the several sequences of chrome M4 SNs ... and assumed you were only interested in buying a Wetzlar chrome body ... not the black, motor or ELC variants ... and no allowance has been made for any chrome bodies that have been trashed :-(

 

There's probably more chance of another volcano blowing its top before the end of the week.

 

dunk

[wattsy]

But expect an experienced statistician might have a different point of view if I have not covered all the permutations

 

You don't seem to have covered the possibility that the two M4 bodies were acquired at the same time and the original buyer specifically requested consecutive serial numbers. A bit like ordering a pair of Purdeys. I'm sure Leica or a dealer could accommodate a good customer.

[dkCambridgeshire]

You don't seem to have covered the possibility that the two M4 bodies were acquired at the same time and the original buyer specifically requested consecutive serial numbers. A bit like ordering a pair of Purdeys. I'm sure Leica or a dealer could accommodate a good customer.

 

I assumed he bought two USED bodies at separate times ie ... in strictly user-condition - pretty beat up ... because if they had been ordered and bought when new, the OP probably would not have asked the question. And I have assumed he has not bought two used consecutively numbered bodies from the same dealer and at the same time.

 

Perhaps the OP can confirm whether or not he bought them both at the same time?

 

If I approached my dealer and said to him , "I wish to buy two used M4 bodies ... and please ensure they have consecutive SNs"

 

I can imagine my dealer saying, " ---- off! ... You cannot be serious!"

 

dunk

[wattsy]

I assumed he bought two USED bodies at separate times ie ... in strictly user-condition - pretty beat up ... because if they had been ordered and bought when new, the OP probably would not have asked the question. And I have assumed he has not bought two used consecutively numbered bodies from the same dealer and at the same time.

 

I assumed that the OP acquired the bodies as a pair from someone and was just asking about the rarity value of having two bodies with consecutive serial numbers.

[dkCambridgeshire]

I assumed that the OP acquired the bodies as a pair from someone and was just asking about the rarity value of having two bodies with consecutive serial numbers.

 

 

Could be ... Maybe the OP will enlighten us.

 

dunk

[luigi bertolotti]

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There were 47191 chrome M4 cameras manufactured and you bought one. Then you bought another of the remaining 47190 - the chances of you having a consecutive serial number would be 2 in 47190 = 1 in 23595 as there are two cameras each having a consecutive serial number - ie one with a consecutive higher number - and one with a consecutive but lower number ... unless your original purchase is the first or last of the SN sequence(s) - in which case the chance is 1 in 47190.

 

Thus knowing the total number produced X the formula is 2: (X-1) or, 1: (X-1) if your SN is at the beginning or end of the sequence.

 

Thus if you have two consecutively serial numbered M4 chrome bodies, the chance of you finding them was probably 23595:1 ... but it could possibly, but rather unlikely be, 47190:1 if your original camera was the first or last chrome M4 produced ... assuming nobody else already had two or more consecutively numbered bodies?

 

But expect an experienced statistician might have a different point of view if I have not covered all the permutations ... eg I have not allowed for the several sequences of chrome M4 SNs ... and assumed you were only interested in buying a Wetzlar chrome body ... not the black, motor or ELC variants ... and no allowance has been made for any chrome bodies that have been trashed :-(

 

There's probably more chance of another volcano blowing its top before the end of the week.

 

dunk

 

1/25395 is indeed ALMOST right... 0,00423819% , being 0,00423810% the correct value (as you pointed, taking into account the chance to have the first or last of the chrome M4... ). I'm not a pro statistician, but like a lot those computations (do you know the famous "birthdays' paradox" ? ).

 

Of course... taking into account blacks / Canada etc would make the computation a mess, maybe impossible for lack of certain data...

[dkCambridgeshire]

1/25395 is indeed ALMOST right... 0,00423819% , being 0,00423810% the correct value (as you pointed, taking into account the chance to have the first or last of the chrome M4... ). I'm not a pro statistician, but like a lot those computations (do you know the famous "birthdays' paradox" ? ).

 

Of course... taking into account blacks / Canada etc would make the computation a mess, maybe impossible for lack of certain data...

 

Transposition error ... but the % is correct ... no I do not know the birthdays paradox ... at least I do not recall it.

 

dunk

[luigi bertolotti]

Transposition error ... but the % is correct ... no I do not know the birthdays paradox ... at least I do not recall it.

 

dunk

 

OOT, but funny... :

 

- You are at a party - meeting or so : let'say... 30-35 people.

- A guy proposes you to bet, au pair, that there are at least two people who celebrate their birthday the same day (not THAT day, of course)

- Is this a "fair" bet, to say, being au pair, with a (roughly) 50% chance for you and the proposer ?

 

Big numbers involved - simple formula - surprising/contra-intuitive result...

[jc_braconi]

Most of this examples are found when some Newspapers enterprise ordered/bought lot of cameras and lenses in the same time for their reporters in the 60's-70's.

[jaapv]

There were 47191 chrome M4 cameras manufactured and you bought one. Then you bought another of the remaining 47190 - the chances of you having a consecutive serial number would be 2 in 47190 = 1 in 23595 as there are two cameras each having a consecutive serial number - ie one with a consecutive higher number - and one with a consecutive but lower number ... unless your original purchase is the first or last of the SN sequence(s) - in which case the chance is 1 in 47190.

 

Thus knowing the total number produced X the formula is 2: (X-1) or, 1: (X-1) if your SN is at the beginning or end of the sequence.

 

Thus if you have two consecutively serial numbered M4 chrome bodies, the chance of you finding them was probably 23595:1 ... but it could possibly, but rather unlikely be, 47190:1 if your original camera was the first or last chrome M4 produced ... assuming nobody else already had two or more consecutively numbered bodies?

 

But expect an experienced statistician might have a different point of view if I have not covered all the permutations ... eg I have not allowed for the several sequences of chrome M4 SNs ... and assumed you were only interested in buying a Wetzlar chrome body ... not the black, motor or ELC variants ... and no allowance has been made for any chrome bodies that have been trashed :-(

 

There's probably more chance of another volcano blowing its top before the end of the week.

 

dunk

There are 60 volcano eruptions per year on average..

[pico]

Most of this examples are found when some Newspapers enterprise ordered/bought lot of cameras and lenses in the same time for their reporters in the 60's-70's.

 

Good thought! These came from Norway long ago and are so brutalized that it's a good guess that they were used by a daily news photographer.

[dkCambridgeshire]

Good thought! These came from Norway long ago and are so brutalized that it's a good guess that they were used by a daily news photographer.

 

If you bought them together at the same time then the above odds do not apply - but was fun working them out.

 

Do the brutalised bodies still function? Do you have some photos of them?

 

Cheers

 

dunk

[pico]

If you bought them together at the same time then the above odds do not apply - but was fun working them out.

 

Do the brutalised bodies still function? Do you have some photos of them?

 

Cheers

 

dunk

 

They do function. As with any Leica M that's heavily used, the shutter speeds probably need adjustment. (I used to have mine adjusted every year when I was a daily news photographer.)

 

No pictures of them. If I put 'em on that auction site, I'll do pictures.

[dkCambridgeshire]

Good luck with your auction.

 

But if you wish to sell them why not advertise them in the Leica Forum 'Buy and Sell' sub Forum?

 

Cheers

 

dunk

[pico]

Good luck with your auction.

 

But if you wish to sell them why not advertise them in the Leica Forum 'Buy and Sell' sub Forum?

 

Cheers

 

dunk

 

Good idea. Can we offer something as a swap rather than strictly cash? I could use a late model Summilux 50mm. (All I use are fast lenses.)

[dkCambridgeshire]

Good idea. Can we offer something as a swap rather than strictly cash? I could use a late model Summilux 50mm. (All I use are fast lenses.)

 

The terms and conditions make no mention of swaps or exchanges so you need to ask via the 'Contact' facility in the 'Buy and Sell' forum.

And even if permitted, most prospective 'swappers' would probably wish to know the exchange value that you put on your items. You may need to ask if you can advertise the cameras as a 'package' ie two items in one advert. And consider that 'two beaten up' M4 bodies in need of a service might not have sufficient value to exchange for a late 50mm Summilux - even if they do have consecutive SNs.

 

Which other fast M lenses do you have?

 

dunk

[pico]

The terms and conditions make no mention of swaps or exchanges so you need to ask via the 'Contact' facility in the 'Buy and Sell' forum.

And even if permitted, most prospective 'swappers' would probably wish to know the exchange value that you put on your items. You may need to ask if you can advertise the cameras as a 'package' ie two items in one advert. And consider that 'two beaten up' M4 bodies in need of a service might not have sufficient value to exchange for a late 50mm Summilux - even if they do have consecutive SNs.

 

Which other fast M lenses do you have?

 

dunk

 

Thank you for the reality check.

 

I just looked at 50mm Summiluxes on that auction site and I'm stunned by how expensive they are, and I would not be surprised if the pair of cameras is insufficient to cover one.

 

Other lenses - 35mm Summilux, earlier version and 75mm Summilux, first version, and Canon F/.09 on Canon 7 body.

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Hallo,

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