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When do you think M9 will be smoothly supplied?


jjjjuin

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It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If a significant number of folks placed themselves on wait lists with multiple dealers, then the availability may improve sooner than some folks think...

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on the other hand if the rumour that Leica has 10,000 outstanding orders has any merit- and if the M9 develops a reputation for excellence- and demand continues to rise- then they may take many months before they reach equilibrium...

 

the fact is many DSLR users may have missed the M9's debut altogether... and will only start to learn about it as they see the odd phorographer wielding one here and there... kicking off a second and potentially larger wave of demand.

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I wouldn't count on hoards of DSLR folks converting to rangefinders. You need to be very into photography to be intrigued by Leica. You also need to have a lot of money. The entry point, even with Summarit lenses, is $10,000. I use to be into high-end stereos. I hung around with people who bought high end stereos. We were a distinct and small minority. Leica users will continue to fall into that same category. Don't count on a second wave.

 

Jack Siegel

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if leica produces 40 - 50 m9s per day. then the 10 000 order will take (i'll use 50 cameras per day) 10 000 / 50 = 200 working days. if there are 5 working days per week, then 200 / 5 = 40 weeks. 40 weeks. when did production begin? i assume before september 2009. so it would take 40 weeks to fulfil the pre orders before it will be 'available' off the shelf.

 

these are my own calculations, correct me if i've taken wrong assumptions or miscalculated something.

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The chart is very theoretical. Think it will not meet the real facts for the very moment. Why?

- Demand of M9 seamed to be increasing actual instead of decreasing (that's what I learn following up coments here in the forum - as well if I call up to several dealers. My position in the queue would be actual No 11 at dealer close to me with increasing tendency and incoming number of cameras are 1...2 /month). Looks not very promising ... And this will result in stabel prices (at least).

- Supply could normally not enlarged by short order. I read here that Leicas limit is about 80 M9's /day. If situation stays as mentioned Leica has to think about that seriously but this is not short term decision/effect and touched very much the investment issue. So, if produced quantity is stabel at maximum then supply could not increase because of already smooth running processes at factory. After 5 month of production this assumption must be true. And if they will squeeze out 5 pc more /day - what about?

 

Looks like Leica got caught in the warm rain ...

Other way arround: same happen to me 3days ago. Went to other dealer here and asked (with some smiling on my face) about short time deliverey of a M9 ... he look at me - smiling same way - and hand me the box ... now I'm member of the club too ... :D

 

Michael

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re: Economics 101 - the price of the M9 actually doesn't change despite supply or demand. while we've seen a couple examples of people on eBay and Amazon trying to mark up cameras, that's the exception. I imagine for many many M9 customers the price is already at a point where increases would actually price them out of the market, psychologically and/or practically.

 

Michael - without mentioning names of dealers as I don't want this to get into a my dealer is better than yours situation, the people I spoke with were getting more cameras in a week than yours is in a month, shop around and you'll be able to get a camera more quickly, provided you're not holding out for grey.

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The chart does not work in this short term problem. Why ? Because the M9 price is a fixed variable and the supply curve is a vertical line. We are already at the desired equilibrium, yet there is a backlog to fulfill. Leica can neither increase price or production in the short term to decrease or fulfill demand.

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Michael - without mentioning names of dealers as I don't want this to get into a my dealer is better than yours situation, the people I spoke with were getting more cameras in a week than yours is in a month, shop around and you'll be able to get a camera more quickly, provided you're not holding out for grey.

 

Hi Mat

You're that right. I'm sitting here in the homeland of Leica and learned that the Leica business is made overseas ourdays. German turnover is only a fraction of yours in US. So no question about who will get higher number of cameras ... :o. Nevertheless the problem of waiting my camera had not touched me at all.

 

Michael

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if leica produces 40 - 50 m9s per day. then the 10 000 order will take (i'll use 50 cameras per day) 10 000 / 50 = 200 working days. if there are 5 working days per week, then 200 / 5 = 40 weeks. 40 weeks. when did production begin? i assume before september 2009. so it would take 40 weeks to fulfil the pre orders before it will be 'available' off the shelf.

 

these are my own calculations, correct me if i've taken wrong assumptions or miscalculated something.

 

So more or less 6 months ahead... Seems fair...:(

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Another Econ wrench in this model is the fact that there are several hundred individuals who have prepaid dealer in advance and the time value of those funds are increasing the price for them on a daily basis...

 

I wonder how much B & H could make investing all those prepayments in a S&P Mutual Fund? :rolleyes:

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I wouldn't count on hoards of DSLR folks converting to rangefinders. You need to be very into photography to be intrigued by Leica. You also need to have a lot of money. The entry point, even with Summarit lenses, is $10,000. I use to be into high-end stereos. I hung around with people who bought high end stereos. We were a distinct and small minority. Leica users will continue to fall into that same category. Don't count on a second wave.

 

Jack Siegel

 

It is reasurring to know I am not alone in these expensive weaknesses. :)

 

My stereo cost far more than my Leicas....more pleasure though? Not sure at all...

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It is reasurring to know I am not alone in these expensive weaknesses. :)

 

 

Yes, but is funny how weaknesses change. My current stereo--Naim--is great, but when it goes, I am at a point where a Bose or some more consumer oriented stereo will be just fine. In fact, I am financing my Leica purchase by selling off collector, limited edition jazz box sets on e-bay. Given the number of other cds I have and duplication, they won't be missed. Another example about how passions do change. Ten years ago I would have never thought of selling any music I purchased.

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