piblondin Posted December 27, 2009 Share #1 Posted December 27, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) Hi everyone-- I'm looking to pick up a used M8 in the next few months and wanted to tap the wisdom of crowds to see if I can get some advice for when I should look (if not constantly). I've only started following sales recently, so I don't know how the current environment compares to other times. It seems like there are more available now with the M9s making their way into the world. With more available, prices should theoretically be lower. However, I wonder if the effect of more time passing and the technology becoming older would have a greater effect on price. Anyhow, what do you all think? Will prices be any better in the spring or do you think they've stabilized for a while with the introduction of the M9? Thanks! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Advertisement Posted December 27, 2009 Posted December 27, 2009 Hi piblondin, Take a look here When to buy a used M8?. I'm sure you'll find what you were looking for!
andybarton Posted December 27, 2009 Share #2 Posted December 27, 2009 Every day you don't buy one, is another day in your life when you haven't got one to use. The days in your life are running out, one day at a time. If you have the funds available, buy one this week, and use it next week. Alternatively, wait forever, in the hope that there may be a better deal around the corner. There may be, but you will always be waiting for an even better deal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
piblondin Posted December 27, 2009 Author Share #3 Posted December 27, 2009 Haha. I know, I know. However, I recently picked up a new GF-1 and a Leica adapter, which I'm enjoying quite a bit. So, I don't feel too much that I'm missing out while I wait. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ottocrat Posted December 28, 2009 Share #4 Posted December 28, 2009 Well I don't have a crystal ball but the impression I'm getting from talking to dealers etc is that prices are, if anything, likely to go up as the supply of used M8s dries up. The early adopters and pros have dumped theirs to get the M9 and bargains are to be had. Plus andybarton's point is 110% valid. On the other hand, supplies of the M9 are few and far between and prices may remain low for some months to come so who knows? If you want one and you have the money available I'd go for it now, for sure. Why wait? Even if prices drop it won't be by much, and it's just as likely to move in the other direction. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidereye Posted December 28, 2009 Share #5 Posted December 28, 2009 I reckon used M8 prices have dropped on average £100 - £200 at most Leica dealers since I started looking for one a few months back but I too can't see them dropping much more in price any time soon especially as ottocrat stated re: M9 availability. Like Andy say's, life's far too short to sit around waiting. If you want one now is a perfect time to buy and get started. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff S Posted December 28, 2009 Share #6 Posted December 28, 2009 You should be more worried about the money you''ll lose selling the GF1 once you fall for the M8. I agree with Andy. You shouldn't look back. Same applies to buying and selling stocks. Jeff Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsrockit Posted December 28, 2009 Share #7 Posted December 28, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) Now is the time to buy... they've dropped several hundreds over the last few months. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
playingolf Posted December 28, 2009 Share #8 Posted December 28, 2009 I don't know what you folks are talking about, but I check and average completed listings on ebay for used M8 every 2 weeks or so since M9 and it has continued to increase in supply and drop steadily. Based on a trend from the M9 release, and considering there are not a lot of M9s out there in the market yet, I extrapolate an good used M8 would be under $2000 USD by March. As of yesterday the week's average M8 auction was $2312 USD, 17 completed listings, lowest was $1927, and highest was $2425. I do not include listings that have been upgraded with 8.2 features, or that contain significant extras like grips and such. Just used basic M8 black or chrome. This is down some $800 USD in 3 months with the rate of drop constant and supply increasing and average completed listings was 6, so the supply has tripled. Just as telling, there were not a lot of overpriced used M8 offerings, as there have been and always are in M6 and M7s, relisted many times by an owner who thinks that his camera is in someway special. Seeing that behavior drop to almost nothing shows that the M8 market coming to grips with reality. I would be willing to bet that the floor on M8 pricing will probably be about $1000 in 24 months. Given it is a Leica, and typically M8s are sold mint as they are not beaten by pros but the property of enthusiasts it is rare to find a poor condition M8 for sale used. I don't think the M8 will suffer the "digital rot" depreciation of a Nikon D1 for example, but unlike buying a used M6 in great condition, I don't see the M8s holding value over the long run. Unlike a great film Leica, I don't see a lot of people wanting to embrace M8 technology in 10 years. So unless you have some overwhelming need for an M8 now...I bet waiting until summer would just about get you a free lens compared to prices prior to 9.9.09. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff S Posted December 28, 2009 Share #9 Posted December 28, 2009 I don't know what you folks are talking about Some of us are talking about photography, not economics. Maybe not exactly what the OP asked, but for me, life is too short. Jeff Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
samuco Posted December 28, 2009 Share #10 Posted December 28, 2009 buy as an investment? never buy buy as a photografic tool? buy now cheers, sam Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
playingolf Posted December 28, 2009 Share #11 Posted December 28, 2009 I would love to hear more about your experience with the GF-1 and Leica glass. Technology wise the GF-1 has at least a 3 year jump on the M8, and while not the classic M style, hopefully yields nice results. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunsworth Posted December 28, 2009 Share #12 Posted December 28, 2009 Technology wise the GF-1 has at least a 3 year jump on the M8, and while not the classic M style, hopefully yields nice results. I haven't used one, but Mark Norton amongst others have said that the camera doesn't work very well with wide angle M lenses, so maybe it's 3 years of the wrong technology. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
theendlesshouse Posted December 28, 2009 Share #13 Posted December 28, 2009 I have been caught in the endless digital compact roller coaster for a few years now, deliberating, waiting fo the next new thing; what a waste of time it all is! Buy the camera take the pictures, express yourself. I am not in the minority saying that the GRD gives better results than the GRD III. Newer is often different rather than better. I today have put a deposit down on a M8.2 just waiting on the lens I ordered with it. should I have gone for the M9, of course, I saw one in the shop being picked up by the customer the gray version, absolutely stunning! But I really cannot be bothered to wait another #months for a digital M and I bought a print by a favorite photographer with the money I saved. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsrockit Posted December 28, 2009 Share #14 Posted December 28, 2009 I haven't used one, but Mark Norton amongst others have said that the camera doesn't work very well with wide angle M lenses, so maybe it's 3 years of the wrong technology. Yeah, I have to agree. It was produced 3 year after the M8 and is cool for a micro 4/3 camera, but it isn't an M8 replacement. If it is to anyone, than they don't know what the endearing charecteristics of an M camera are. Also, the micro 4/3 cameras are cool to use with Leica lenses for people who already have Leica lenses, or like that it makes Leica lenses longer than any Leica camera can (due to the crop factor), but to buy a $800 digital body to use with expensive Leica lenses seems backwards to me. If you can afford the glass, you should be able to buy a M8 at least. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
clu08 Posted December 28, 2009 Share #15 Posted December 28, 2009 Buy one as quick as you can...got mine 2 months ago and never looked back again...no complaints... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaapv Posted December 28, 2009 Share #16 Posted December 28, 2009 I haven't used one, but Mark Norton amongst others have said that the camera doesn't work very well with wide angle M lenses, so maybe it's 3 years of the wrong technology.I used one for a week - glad of the return policy - A jump in the wrong direction for me.Nice little camera with its own dedicated lenses. Works with Leica M glass if your thing is to shoot at 100 mm equivalent upwards - and waste all the advantages of your Leica lenses. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbgeach Posted December 29, 2009 Share #17 Posted December 29, 2009 I think if you wait until March you may save 200-300 dollars. If you would spend 300 dollars for 4 months use, it is a no brainer. Personally, the longer you wait, the longer you won't have the camera. If you thought the Canon 1ds wasn't worth $8000 in 2002, it is now only $1200. Anyway, I would go ahead and buy the camera, its price is pretty stable Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
piblondin Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share #18 Posted December 29, 2009 Thanks, everyone. I'm going to keep my eyes open for nice, used black M8 that I can afford. Looking forward to my first digital Leica! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wstotler Posted December 29, 2009 Share #19 Posted December 29, 2009 Based on a trend from the M9 release, and considering there are not a lot of M9s out there in the market yet, I extrapolate an good used M8 would be under $2000 USD by March. <snip> I would be willing to bet that the floor on M8 pricing will probably be about $1000 in 24 months. Given it is a Leica, and typically M8s are sold mint as they are not beaten by pros but the property of enthusiasts it is rare to find a poor condition M8 for sale used. <snip> I don't see the M8s holding value over the long run. I really appreciate the trending work you've been doing to analyze eBay numbers. Very valuable to know. However, Leica goods do not always follow expected trends like other items. --> This does not mean that you are wrong, BTW, just adding this info. The Noctilux surprised mostly everyone when it went up in price to more than double what it had been. Yes, there was a reason for it but nobody really saw that coming. The Digilux 2 kept its value at about $1K until earlier this year. It's still at $500+, depending on the source. Original price was about $2K. It's "only" a 5MP digicam. Again, there was a reason for it (mostly the lens and body feel), but who expected the Digilux 2 to hold on like that? I really doubt they'll go any lower, even into the future. M5s hover between $1K and $1.2K in good condition. M6 TTLs hover between $1.2K and $1.8K, depending on the model, and in good condition. Based on these things, and even in the face of the data, my gut says the M8 market will stay about where it is in 2010, with prices hovering between $1.8K and $2.3K for the M8. I think in mid-to-late 2011 the price will come down into the $1.4K to $1.8K range, but I don't see these cameras hitting a $1K floor, on average. (Again, I may be wrong.) I see them being on par with M6 pricing. The primary reason the price stays pretty stable will be one of demand--it's yesterday's camera, but it's more than good enough (and cheap enough) to get into the digital game and I think a significant number of M8 owners will decide to pick up a second body rather than "upgrade" to an M9 for $7K. I'm guessing that used M9s in 2010 will be $5.5Kish. Used M9s in 2011 will be $4K to $5K. The new M9 pricing will likely go up not down, to just under $8K as Leica hits with a price increase. That's my guess, anyway. Cheers--and thanks again for the data. (Seriously.) Thanks, everyone. I'm going to keep my eyes open for nice, used black M8 that I can afford. Looking forward to my first digital Leica! Good luck to you--and enjoy your M8. Later! Will Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sailronin Posted December 29, 2009 Share #20 Posted December 29, 2009 The sooner you buy it, the sooner you get to use it! You deserve a Christmas present, don't you? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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