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S2 delayed till December


ptomsu

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I just posted the same thing on get DPI so I thought I should do so here too: I am invited to studio shoot what I believe will be a production model on 11th November and I will be allowed to take my Phase One kit along for comparison, too. So I think I can buy the story about the production line. After all, they are getting a lot of heat for not being able to supply demand for M9s and I do also think that quite a few people are planning to get S2s if they match expectations...

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I just posted the same thing on get DPI so I thought I should do so here too: I am invited to studio shoot what I believe will be a production model on 11th November and I will be allowed to take my Phase One kit along for comparison, too. So I think I can buy the story about the production line. After all, they are getting a lot of heat for not being able to supply demand for M9s and I do also think that quite a few people are planning to get S2s if they match expectations...

 

Looking forward to your report on the comparison! Exactly my 2 systems I will have to choose from!

 

WRT availability, I do hope for Leica that they improve compared to their past.

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I won't guesstimate S2 demand - I leave that to folks like Dave Farkas who actually have a finger on the pulse.

 

But I will bet Leica has figured out it can suck in more income per wage-hour per day for the next month and a half feeding the M9 demand instead. In my neck of the woods they've only been able to fill about 15% of the M9 preorders so far, although the flow rate is supposed to ramp up by the end of October.

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I won't guesstimate S2 demand - I leave that to folks like Dave Farkas who actually have a finger on the pulse.

 

But I will bet Leica has figured out it can suck in more income per wage-hour per day for the next month and a half feeding the M9 demand instead. In my neck of the woods they've only been able to fill about 15% of the M9 preorders so far, although the flow rate is supposed to ramp up by the end of October.

 

And let's not forget the X1, still slated for a pre-christmas launch and I do hazard a guess that it'll be in many Xmas stockings if it gets delivered on time. Miss that deadline and the lowest hanging fruit is gone...

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"Higher than expected demand"

 

Right.

 

:rolleyes:

 

Sandy

 

There's no problem by saying that actually, Sandy. If their anticipation was to sell 10 cameras but now they've got 20 orders, I'd call that extremely high demand.

 

But seriously, I guess they are waiting to collect enough orders to do a production batch run no matter what the number is ... otherwise, it makes no sense to adapt their process and production lines just to build a couple of them, especially when the demand on M9 and X1 is huge.

 

It's those "wrong hands" who will fill in the correct numbers on cheques once their year end bonuses are deposited, that's probably why Leica move the schedule after Xmas.

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I bet Leica just wants to make extra sure the S2 has super high quality control. They can't afford any mistakes on that, but they can afford another delay.

 

For my planning, I prefer to book capitol expense into next calendar year anyway, even if I were leasing. For this pro item, after Christmas is better. For a consumer item like an X1, before Christmas is more important. Most studios buy capital equipment in the first quarter of the calendar year and then their budgets are shot for the rest of the year, so delaying the S2 is just fine for Leica. They will be closer to the release date of the lenses too.

 

Just a guess, but I also suspect that Leica would rather have Kodak get caught up on M9 sensors, rather than gear up the S2 sensor line in competition with the M9?

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Setting up production lines is costly in terms of equipment, supplies, personnel, training and space. It is also costly to take down a line and change it to produce something else. Given Leica's past performance on software development (very slow) I predicted that they would not make the November launch date and I don't believe that demand (at least for the S2) is the cause of the delay. I also doubt that they would abandon the S2 assembly & production line and convert it to the M9 only to revert it back in one month. I doubt if they could accomplish the conversion in one month, much less convert, produce M9s and convert back. This has to be the BS line of the year. Having stuck my neck out before with predictions I will predict the S2 won't make December delivery either.

 

UPDATE: Just saw the PDN post saying Leica now says 2nd week of January 2010 for S2 deliveries. I bet they won't make that date either.

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Hey, are they using the new facilities in Wetzlar yet? Have they moved in?

 

No, that has been postponed some time ago already. Some other companies are in the new "Leitz Park" already, Leica themselves will follow next year or so. Currently, they're still in Solms.

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I seem to recall being mildly flamed here not that long ago (earlier this year?) for daring to suggest that it was inevitable that Leica would miss the Summer 2009 launch date. It was always going to happen and I think it's a fair bet that they will miss the December deadline too.

 

I know the S2 and M9 are theoretically aimed at different markets but it is interesting to see how Leica have handled the pre-launch publicity for the two products. Rumours about the M9 only really surfaced in earnest during August, the product was announced in September and has been available to buy (albeit in small numbers) ever since. The S2 was announced last year, hyped up for a short time around Photokina and the buzz has been allowed to fizzle away with no actual product to buy. 12 months or more have gone past and we are still being promised a date when the product will be available to buy.

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The US dollar is steadily collapsing in value...

 

Most have complained about the high cost of the S2 in terms of USD. However, the value of the dollar is not remaining static since the public announcement of S2 pricing. Leica may find that the original pricing of the S2 is actually too low to cover the loss in purchasing power of the dollar.

 

A lot of bad things can happen to the dollar between now and January.

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Interesting how they had too many orders for the M9 but that didn't keep them from selling what they had or could produce but they had too many orders for the S2 so they won't sell any...really?

 

I think that what really happened is they had far too few orders for the S2 so they quickly created the M9 as a quick and dirty product. The sensor was probably under development at kodak for some time and the quick solution was to take the existing M8 design, double the same processor (2 pipes), modify the sensor throat and get it out to market quickly.

 

By the way, most companies don't look to amortize R&D costs since they aren't allowed to capitalize them. They are an expense and sunk cost. Part of any ongoing R&D is a variable expense of operation so if the S2 never sees the light of day it won't effect future profit except to the extent of lost sales. If they don't see a business case to go forward, i.e. the costs to produce it (not R&D costs as these are lost opportunity costs) can't be justified based on projected sales then the company is better off never producing it.

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