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Roger's law: Please note we are now hitting the second "Plateau" of opinions


colonel

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https://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2013/01/rogers-law-of-new-product-introduction/

 

HOLD ON TIGHT :)

 

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Amusing, but there's something interesting about these "laws", and there are loads of them, that we need to be careful about.

 

They are often a reasonable way of describing perfectly rational behaviour, but are easily misinterpreted. They can appear to suggest that people's behaviour is predictable to the point of being inevitable, and therefore somehow slightly comic because we're not as in control of ourselves as we like to believe.

 

I think that interpretation is back to front.

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 They can appear to suggest that people's behaviour is predictable to the point of being inevitable, and therefore somehow slightly comic because we're not as in control of ourselves as we like to believe.

 

A very good question, how much is instinct and how much is independent thought !

 

I have no idea

 

However this graph is an amusing narrative pre and port introduction which fits some cut out reactions quite well. If perhaps the 6 month timeline is a big long these days ...

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I think in this case, and it would seem in particular the massive polarization associated with Leica releases, that there's a fair degree of truth to the graphic....whether front to back or back to front. Forums are cool and all, but when we have 30 pages of fencing on why Leica 'ruined the opportunity' of the M10 by 'not incorporating the optical qualities of the M3' to 'needs 50K video (yes I know that's a typo...) and a hybrid VF, and 1000mm AF telephoto lenses and 18 fps burst mode like a DSLR'....well, it gets beyond ridiculous. Particularly amusing is the seemingly unreconcilable tension, even within some users, of the love/hate...this desire for the Leica M to be completely different from other high-end digital cameras, yet contain all the features of those other high-end digital cameras...you know, to make them 'worth all that money'. There's no big surprises with the Leica M; there never will be or it won't be an M...anyone with even the smallest bit of knowledge about the history and the layout, as well as Leica as a manufacturer and what they can and can't actually do (vs. what they might even like to do), and what they will actually do with the M, can see this.  

 

And people's behaviour is often predicable to the point of being inevitable.  Particularly in settings and topics like these. But even in general...as people we're hard-wired for a lot of biases, logical fallacies, and failed heuristics. 

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