Future upgrade cycles of Leica M's

[AlanJW]

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I think we will see slower upgrade cycles. Both with the japanese brands and of course also with leica. In the days of film, four years was considered to be a quick turnaround.

 

Today, there is less to gain by offering the latest and greatest camera, because of a number of factors:

Most cameras have "enough" megapixels for most peoples needs. How many megapixels do you need to post on facebook? How many consumers make poster size enlargements? Also, increasing the pixel count gets increasingly hard technologically, provided the ISO performance expectations of most customers (at least a decent 6400 seems to be the norm unless you trade ISO for pixel count like in the D800). Most cameras also do video, live view etc, so that is not such a big selling point either.

 

There is also a lot less money in digital cameras, because of bad economy in america (biggest market) and in japan (biggest producer), and because most people today already own a digital camera that suits their needs perfectly.

Competition between brands have squeezed profit margins, leaving less money for research, development and marketing.

 

All in all, the market has shrinked and the technology has "matured". This translates into longer upgrade cycles, in my opinion.

 

It would surprise me if we see less than 3 years between major M model upgrades. Probably more. However, I do agree that smaller updates might be introduced, but I doubt it will be often.

Your post probably could have been written a couple of years ago when megapixels topped out at maybe 18, but look at what happened, even during slow economies. We got more megapixels, we got EVFs, mirrorless, MFT, Sony Nex, etc. The fact is that competition has and will continue to drive updates and innovation. If there are "enough" megapixels (not sure the consumer will ever have "enough") then the competition will be on the nature of the pixels, on meter systems, viewing systems, on size, on optics and on something we haven't even seen yet. But that is about cameras in general. For Ms, you may be right about the cycle. We went 3 years plus between M9 and M240. Then again the MM was introduced during that period, a product both retro and innovative at the same time. I just don't see anybody in this market sitting on their hands

[Guest snowboarder]

My local Leica dealer here in switzerland told me that the complete production capacity of 2013 has already been sold to preorders.

 

 

I think that's a good news. That gives me more time to see if Sony can come up

with a FF mirrorless camera to put my M lenses on.

Hopefully that will happen in 2013 and I won't care about the new M anymore...

[cirke]

I don't mind if delivery is slow I'm going to wait until the "pro" version comes out and pay $1000 more for one without a red dot!

Why do you call it pro , when it is exactly the same camera without the price on it

[macjonny1]

Why do you call it pro ' date=' when it is exactly the same camera without the price on it[/quote']

 

What do you think P stand for?

[cirke]

I think that's a good news. That gives me more time to see if Sony can come up

with a FF mirrorless camera to put my M lenses on.

Hopefully that will happen in 2013 and I won't care about the new M anymore...

I am number on eat my dealer for the new M

but if Sony release soon a FF mirror-less I'll do certainly the same thing because I don't like rangefinders

[cirke]

What do you think P stand for?

no idea : pigeon maybe ? :-) , but the main thing is if you like it or not

 

when you compare a Canon 5D mark II and a 1Ds III you know why the 1Ds is called pro

[Olsen]

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I am not on any list for the new M but are are these numbers confirmed or speculation. 11,000!!!!

 

First of all it is the dealers that place orders. Not end users.

[Olsen]

Your post probably could have been written a couple of years ago when megapixels topped out at maybe 18, but look at what happened, even during slow economies. We got more megapixels, we got EVFs, mirrorless, MFT, Sony Nex, etc. The fact is that competition has and will continue to drive updates and innovation. If there are "enough" megapixels (not sure the consumer will ever have "enough") then the competition will be on the nature of the pixels, on meter systems, viewing systems, on size, on optics and on something we haven't even seen yet. But that is about cameras in general. For Ms, you may be right about the cycle. We went 3 years plus between M9 and M240. Then again the MM was introduced during that period, a product both retro and innovative at the same time. I just don't see anybody in this market sitting on their hands

 

There will always be room for improvement. The camera market has changed with the introduction of the digital sensor. You will be out of the market if you don't come with something new within a 3 year cycle. High ISO performance is a never ending thing. So is less corner light fall off, corner sharpness, colour dept, etc.

 

To shoot video is a new thing with M240. I missed that when going on a cruise a year ago with my M9 and Sony video tape recorder. - The quality and reliability of the latter left much to be desired. Don't say that you will never use it. Still photographers make great film/video shooters too. To what I hear from the Canon community here in Norway, they have 'great fun' with their new video ability. Not only that: Norwegian state broadcasting, NRK, were among the first to use the Canon D5 with this video capability on pro assignments. If a Canon D5 is a good video tool, then a Leica M will be even better. The potential for upgrading the M on video side is just as endless.

[roydonian]

Perhaps Leica will FINALLY upgrade/update the firmware in the M9.

PLEASE. Just a little improvement in battery life, buffer performance and no discreet mode problems.

Mark

Battery life is unlikely to be affected by firmware changes, and I seem to recall Leica saying that there are no prospects for a speedier save to the SD card.

 

But the discreet-mode problems need to be fixed.

 

One problem that Leica has when it tests firmware updates it that it field-tests this on too small a scale, involving only a small number of users all neatly subjected to a non-disclosure agreement. If you are serious in finding bugs, there is no substitute for large numbers of testers.

 

When Microsoft tested its final pre-release standard of Windows 95, it had tens of thousands of users giving it a try. One major bug that I reported (it prevented the software from installing) was experienced by only five other testers. But it was tracked down and fixed before the official release.

 

Obviously it is not practical for Leica could get tens of thousands of M9 users involved in field testing, but instead of trying to keep the whole thing under wraps via a non-disclosure agreement, they should be trying to get as many users as possible to try out the new firmware.

[macjonny1]

There will always be room for improvement. The camera market has changed with the introduction of the digital sensor. You will be out of the market if you don't come with something new within a 3 year cycle. High ISO performance is a never ending thing. So is less corner light fall off, corner sharpness, colour dept, etc.

 

To shoot video is a new thing with M240. I missed that when going on a cruise a year ago with my M9 and Sony video tape recorder. - The quality and reliability of the latter left much to be desired. Don't say that you will never use it. Still photographers make great film/video shooters too. To what I hear from the Canon community here in Norway, they have 'great fun' with their new video ability. Not only that: Norwegian state broadcasting, NRK, were among the first to use the Canon D5 with this video capability on pro assignments. If a Canon D5 is a good video tool, then a Leica M will be even better. The potential for upgrading the M on video side is just as endless.

 

Yes I guess that's all part of the original question. Say for example that there are tweaks to the processor that gives it faster performance. Then perhaps CMOSIS comes out with a 28MP sensor. I'm guessing both could be implemented by Leica in say a Type 241 with minimal work. Maybe on a 3 year cycle you could have a complete overhaul. Look at what automakers do. Every year they come out with minor improvements, some of which are a big enough deal to make people upgrade every year. The overall look and feel of the car stay the same. Then, perhaps every 5-6 years they have a major overhaul with some design changes and a large package of changes. That's what I think Leica could do although maybe not that frequently. I can see tweaks and a new model being made every year and half though and then every several years a bigger design change.

 

Probably won't happen but it should....

[mjh]

Say for example that there are tweaks to the processor that gives it faster performance.

The Maestro processor was introduced years ago; we can take it for granted that Leica and Fujitsu will have been working on a successor for quite some time. That doesn’t imply that there will soon be a new M with a new processor. For example, when Canon introduced the EOS-1Ds Mark III in 2007, it had two DIGIC III. The DIGIC III was replaced by the DIGIC 4 in 2008 but Canon didn’t rush out a new version of its top-of-the-line model for another 4 years. Only in 2012 did Canon introduce the EOS-1D X with two DIGIC 5+.

 

Then perhaps CMOSIS comes out with a 28MP sensor.

CMOSIS will come out with a 28 MP sensor if and only if Leica orders a sensor with these specs. Which they won’t. If they had wanted a 28 MP sensor they would have said so in the first place, but Leica thinks that 24 MP marks the sweet spot. If you could develop a 28 MP sensor with the same low noise levels and the same dynamic range of the existing Max sensor, the rather modest increase in resolution still wouldn’t make it worthwhile to introduce a new model. There is really no need to have a product cycle shorter than 3 years.

[macjonny1]

The Maestro processor was introduced years ago; we can take it for granted that Leica and Fujitsu will have been working on a successor for quite some time. That doesn’t imply that there will soon be a new M with a new processor. For example, when Canon introduced the EOS-1Ds Mark III in 2007, it had two DIGIC III. The DIGIC III was replaced by the DIGIC 4 in 2008 but Canon didn’t rush out a new version of its top-of-the-line model for another 4 years. Only in 2012 did Canon introduce the EOS-1D X with two DIGIC 5+.

 

CMOSIS will come out with a 28 MP sensor if and only if Leica orders a sensor with these specs. Which they won’t. If they had wanted a 28 MP sensor they would have said so in the first place, but Leica thinks that 24 MP marks the sweet spot. If you could develop a 28 MP sensor with the same low noise levels and the same dynamic range of the existing Max sensor, the rather modest increase in resolution still wouldn’t make it worthwhile to introduce a new model. There is really no need to have a product cycle shorter than 3 years.

 

Understood these were hypothetical examples on my part. As to "there is really no need to have a product cycle shorter than 3 years" that is highly subjective and I think if they did they would increase sales. That's what it is about when you are a company. Sales. Another example: If CMOSIS were able to tweak the sensor and get ISO 25600 that would be enough to come out with a new model just by itself and would have a very minor change in costs to implement. That would be enough to drive sales for some.

[mjh]

As to "there is really no need to have a product cycle shorter than 3 years" that is highly subjective and I think if they did they would increase sales.

Once they get to a point where supply exceeds demand, they might consider this. As long as demand exceeds supply, the only way to increase sales would be to expand their production capacity.

[lefse]

Many people seem to forget that this is the first major sensor upgrade for the Leica M system.

Leica M8's KAF-10500 sensor (2006), and M9's KAF-18500 sensor (2009) are essentially the same. The only difference is the size. Dynamic range and ISO sensitivity is identical. Kodak and Leica did add offset microlenses on the KAF-18500, allowing for wide angle lenses to be used.

 

The Leica Monochrom uses a KAF-18500 sensor without a bayer colour filter array, and some new software to better control the obviously different "tonality" output. Other than that, same sensor, new wrapping.

 

The Leica M Type 240 will be as state of the art as any other camera currently in production.

But don't expect Leica to come up with a brand new sensor every three year. They don't have the resources for that. Every 5-6 years is still pretty impressive, considering what giants they are up against.

[mabbo]

Yes,

yes,

yes.

 

More dynamic range :D

 

and for the cinematographers:

 

60fps/120fps @ 1080p (this should be pretty easy)

 

and then further down the line: 4K+ resolution video!