Sizing Up the Future

[IkarusJohn]

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It is not about a darker or brighter finder. It's not an optical finder issue either. It is a depth of field issue. If you are content with the bare fact that the object you want to focus on is somewhere inside the depth of field (however you define that, and assuming that this definition agrees with what the camera thinks is sharp) and ignore the fact that all objects within the presumed d.o.f. are not equally sharp – that most of them are just not too unsharp – then you are in effect zone-focusing. That is okay for many purposes. For some of us, it is not okay always.

 

The focused old man

 

Actually, not quite. With peaking, you also see the change in depth of field.

 

Try one first, then come back all expert, Lars. It's so much better than speculating. No problem getting a sharp image at any aperture. Almost easier than getting an unsharp one.

 

Cheers

John

[jonoslack]

Actually, not quite. With peaking, you also see the change in depth of field.

 

Try one first, then come back all expert, Lars. It's so much better than speculating. No problem getting a sharp image at any aperture. Almost easier than getting an unsharp one.

 

Cheers

John

 

Quite right John . . . there is also the added side benefit that all those lovely old lenses with focus shift . . . . suddenly have focus shift no longer!

[lars_bergquist]

I stay ready to be convinced ... when it happens. A serious camera with live view, focus peaking (or some other electronic aid to manual focus, interchangeable lenses and the ability to accept both my M lenses and my old Olympus macro gear would be intriguing indeed.

 

I'm from Stockholm, show me!

 

The old man from the Age of the Kine-Exakta

[IkarusJohn]

I'm from Stockholm, show me!

 

I'm from Auckland - find out for yourself!

[lars_bergquist]

Summing up the Future

 

This discussion seems to have reached a natural end. Several people have contributed interesting ideas, and also some interesting preconceived notions, some of them stated with considerable … let's call it emphasis. I want to do a summing up by returning to the original topic:

 

Leica Camera AG will not be assured of a long-term future unless they widen their market. Herr Kaufmann has spoken of a one percent market share, and I agree – a company with a smaller presence in the market will be very vulnerable to its vagaries. Especially if it is a luxury market that deals in non-essentials. Let's face it: Even the very rich – perhaps especially they – can both survive and enjoy life perfectly well without a Leica. Especially if some other kind of bling catches their fickle fancy.

 

So Leica have to break out of the luxury market. How can they do that?

 

— With a S-style medium format camera? Of course not.

— With a M rangefinder camera, however revamped and improved? No. Already the price forbids it.

— With a X-2, or anything in that vein? Clearly, no. Much too limited.

— With a line of re-branded Panasonic compacts? That market is withering away.

 

Leica will have to create a new line of 'prosumer' cameras that are accessible to a broader market of non-commercial photographers, and still preserve and strengthen the 'Leica Ethos': Wowing us with cameras that fire young and creative photographers with enthusiasm to go out and do something remarkable.

 

This can only be a line of electronic viewfinder cameras with interchangeable lenses. This is the only way to combine versatility with a tempting price – tempting people who are in ordinary walks of life, at least now, but just slightly obsessed ...

 

I will not lay down by fiat one mandatory sensor size. I can very well contemplate a 24x36mm sensor, if the price is consistent with the concept – but not larger than that! But considering the quality of sensors of APS-C size or thereabouts, and the handier cameras and lenses that can be built with such sensors, I think this is the wave of the 'prosumer future'. But not four thirds, a size that will soon be eaten alive from below by the advancing insect horde of ever more capable and unbeatably convenient camera phones, just as is now happening with the small-sensor compacts. I think Herr Doktor read the future correctly when he decided to disengage Leica from that sensor size. The Digilux 3 had no progeny – fortunately for the company.

 

I have come to the conclusion – helped by some of you, certainly – that Leica Camera AG will not have the production capacity to launch such a 'breakout' line until it has moved to new premises, installed more machinery, and above all, trained the necessary workers. So now I am inclined to think that the big Leica news at the Photokina will be a new M, whatever its official designation. Mind you, by 'a M' I mean not just any camera with a M bayonet, but a rangefinder camera with a M bayonet. That is what 'M' means.

 

And the Breakout Camera? Qui vivra verra. Fuji, Sony etc. etc. will not have been standing still for two years by then.

 

The old man from the 35 Millimeter Age

[jaapv]

Well thought through, Lars. It may well be Leica will claim the APS-H format as the "Leica" format. It would fit in with the historical ties with M8 and DMR.

My guess for Photokina is M10, S3 ( because the M10 will eat into S2 territory) and lens news. And just maybe a preview for the future about the EVIL concept that is undoubtedly ripening in Solms.

 

They need to. The M line is running into diminishing returns. After adding a CMos with its inevitavble liveview and quite likely "Visoflex IV" type of accessory EVF to pacify the remaining R crowd, and the Monochrome as ultimate niche-within-niche camera there remains but one thing for an M11 - add autofocus capability to the rangefinder concept. Hardly an attractive prospect and effectively the end of the line. So Leica will need a new bread-and-butter camera concept in some years time.

[lars_bergquist]

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Jaap, I agree with your reasoning too.

 

My suspicion is that the new EVIL camera may well be built in Portugal. As I read the future, both Spain and Portugal will by then have left the Eurozone and started to get competitive again with a depreciated new/old currency and (unfortunately) lower real wages though hopefully with jobs – or there will be complete chaos and all bets are off.

 

But if nowhere else, the euro will be the single currency of the Deutsche Bundesrepublik and the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg. What a € will be worth in two years time is a prophecy I will not attempt, but let us hope for Leica's sake that it will be less pumped-up than it is today.

 

The old man from the 35mm Age

[jonoslack]

HI There Lars

An interesting discussion, but I think you fall into the trap that Porsche fell into in the 90s (or was it 80s) of thinking that survival relied upon being cheaper. Aspirational may not be good if you can't (or don't want to) afford it, but keeping oneself firmly in the upper echelons from a price point of view has done lots of companies (especially German ones) very well.

 

The catastrophe is to try to bring out a me-too camera (yeah yeah - APSc mirror less yawn) which will not be as good as your competitors with bigger budgets.

 

On that basis, I think I disagree with almost everything you say.

 

First of all I think that the M camera has a long long way to run - sure it shouldn't ONLY have a mechanical viewfinder - but it should always have one. Leica are perfectly placed to produce the first full frame mirrorless EVF camera - with a huge range of compatible lenses, both zooms and primes, Leica and 3rd party.

 

The recent rush to older lenses shows that there is a real market for MF. Personally, after 20 years of AF, I didn't use a manual focus lens until I bought an M6 in 2006 - nowadays I prefer manual focus, and I know I'm not alone.

 

I think that it is more likely that APSc which will wither away - it's neither small enough to make small kits nor large enough to have decent depth of field control.

 

It's going to be a long time before m4/3 is swallowed up from below - the nearest compact sensor is many times smaller. Added to which the market is well established, and there are many good lenses (including some Leica branded lenses). Personally I think that Leica could do much worse than join the consortium - so that there is instantly a whole raft of other excellent AF lenses available. They could make a body which will have dozens of AF lenses immediately available, and then they could add premium Leica AF lenses at a sensible rate.

 

The idea that they can produce a complete new concept which is going to threaten the existing market for EVF based cameras (especially when Canon and Nikon join the fray) seems very shaky to me.

[lars_bergquist]

The camera phones are not increasing their pressure from below because they can (potentially) take as good pictures as a 4/5 camera can (potentially) do. Which they cannot, of course. They are competing by the sheer convenience of a device you are already carrying on you, combined with a picture that looks ok on your pal's phone. For that, and not large prints, is what the majority of people want. This is what the majority 'photo' scene increasingly looks like: People take pictures with their phones and share them via the phone network. Period.

 

In order to compete, 4/5 cameras will have to let you make phone calls, surf the web, play games and keep your agenda and whatever. And be as pocketable as an iPhone. Show me that trick, and I will believe you.

 

——————

 

It may well be useful to speculate about the coming EVIL camera, because that is a couple of years off and our ideas may well find resonance. Yes, APS-H may well be it. I am resigned to that, though I think that APS-C is actually the sweet spot for usefulness (though not for the present fad for extremely shallow depth of field. Lack of that was held against the 35mm format in the 1930's and it was pointed out that in that respect, 24x36 could not compete with 9x12cm glass plates.)

 

But I doubt that it will be useful to speculate on what Leica are going to do with the M at the Photokina this September. That is already hewn in stone, and has been for quite some time. It is in fact worse than useless, because it will just muddy the waters. So I push the 'Abstain' button.

 

The old man from the Kodachrome Age

[jonoslack]

——————

 

It may well be useful to speculate about the coming EVIL camera, because that is a couple of years off and our ideas may well find resonance. Yes, APS-H may well be it. I am resigned to that, though I think that APS-C is actually the sweet spot for usefulness (though not for the present fad for extremely shallow depth of field. Lack of that was held against the 35mm format in the 1930's and it was pointed out that in that respect, 24x36 could not compete with 9x12cm glass plates.)

 

I guess that's what it boils down to - the concept of the sensor 'sweet spot' - of course I understand where you're coming from - I just feel that there are different sweet spots for different needs, and that there is no need to coalesce on one size.

I also feel very strongly that if Leica join the mainstream, then that will be the end of them.

 

Whatever - time for coffee

[lars_bergquist]

Swimming with the mainstream, and floating down it, are two different things. And two different outcomes.

 

The old man from the Kodachrome Age

[jonoslack]

Swimming with the mainstream, and floating down it, are two different things. And two different outcomes.

 

Looks like you've pinned down where we disagree to a single sentence!

I don't see any chances for them in the mainstream - either swimming with it, or floating down it. (unless of course it were the m/43 mainstream )

[dickgrafixstop]

When I replaced the Speed Graphic with a Rollei TLR, the "photographers" were confident that my work would suffer. When the TLR gave way to a Nikon for sports work, the "knowledgeable" were convinced that the image quality would suffer. When the Nikon went in the closet for an autofocus Canon system, I committed heresy to the "old pros", but got more and better pictures published. My first, and very expensive digital, would, according to the film buffs, "never cut it" until I eliminated darkroom delays and beat them to the editor's desks. The Leicas were reserved for "art" work, "street" work and vacations. Now I see that Leica has painted itself into a corner - a limited high end product that attracts well monied collectors and a few die hard photographers who owned legacy lenses. They abandoned the R crowd, priced out most potential M customers, and concentrate on an over-priced underfunctioned S. If Blackstone is to see any return on their investments, Leica is going to need to produce an absolute winner that can compete at the $4-5000 body/$1500-2000 lens price point. If they do that with a APS-C or a M4/3 chip - who cares? Image quality is

what's important not hardware. If the smaller image circle allows less expensive high quality lenses, go for it.

[40mm f/2]

What one can call sensor sweet spot will change with every generation of sensors.I agree with Lars that now it is APS-C especially considering IQ and price. I think a more difficult question is whether one wants or can afford to develop lenses optimized for that sweet spot. Will Leica care with future camera systems about legacy (M/R)lenses?

[rramesh]

When we are talking about a target market being "lifestyle products for discerning, upwardly mobile and wealthy individuals", I don't believe there is room for compromises.

 

What we will see in Photokina is a large booth that takes us into the world of travel, exotic imagery, lifestyle dreams, a new M (I think Leica will drop number), a new S, lots of impressions and ringing cash registers.

 

Look at the recent Audi campaigns and you will get an idea.

[lars_bergquist]

What we will see in Photokina is a large booth that takes us into the world of travel, exotic imagery, lifestyle dreams, a new M (I think Leica will drop number), a new S, lots of impressions and ringing cash registers.

 

Look at the recent Audi campaigns and you will get an idea.

 

Horror! Will Walter da Silva design the new M? Will it be clueless as well as numberless? (And Audi ugly.)

 

The old man from the Age of the M3

[lars_bergquist]

What one can call sensor sweet spot will change with every generation of sensors.I agree with Lars that now it is APS-C especially considering IQ and price. I think a more difficult question is whether one wants or can afford to develop lenses optimized for that sweet spot. Will Leica care with future camera systems about legacy (M/R)lenses?

 

I don't think M lenses will be 'legacy' in the foreseeable future. The Gnomes of Solms, led by their ever-jovial Supergnome, may yet surprise us.

 

The problem – OUR problem – is that to us, the M is such an icon that it is seen as something like the Holy Grail. You don't mess with the Holy Grail. You don't even think of it. But maybe we can both have the rangefinder functionality, and eat it, i.e. add functionality.

 

The Leica M5 tried to do that, but at that time, this meant increasing bulk, and most potential customers didn't want that. (The reason btw was not mainly TTL metering per se, but the readout by bulky electro-mechanical ammeter.) Improvements in microelectronics made that extra bulk unnecessary in the M6, and the continuing process will make it unnecessary in an 'MX'.

 

And no, I am NOT talking about video ...

 

The old man from the Kodachrome Age

[lars_bergquist]

What one can call sensor sweet spot will change with every generation of sensors.I agree with Lars that now it is APS-C especially considering IQ and price. I think a more difficult question is whether one wants or can afford to develop lenses optimized for that sweet spot. Will Leica care with future camera systems about legacy (M/R)lenses?

 

Ah well, there's a second aspect to your post that I did not attend to. As I have stated before, Leica will need a new product to break out of the restricted niche where it is today. It will have to be a product that is not priced out of the reach of the potential customers. It will need AF lenses. It will probably use a modified M bayonet with extra capabilities over and above AF, and be able to use M lenses, but that is in fact not the primary consideration. That camera may in theory have a FF sensor, but bulk and price speak against it. The best sensor size to still give Leica IQ would be either APS-H (roughly equal to M8) or APS-C.

 

But Leica do not have the production capacity for that. That will not materialize before 2013 or 2014. Maybe we shall see something at the 2014 Photokina?

 

The old man from the Kodachrome Age

[Guest malland]

Hej, Lasse,

 

So how do you see the relationship of the M10 — call it the "Photokina M" — to the M-Monochrom? I am quite taken with the image quality that may be possible with the latter, but still agonizing over the 230,000 dot LCD, sluggishness and issues with SD cards, etc.

 

—Mitch/Bangkok

Scratching the Surface

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Hallo,

Look here: Interesting Leica gear

[pgk]

That camera may in theory have a FF sensor, but bulk and price speak against it.

Price. I remember when calculators came out that they were horribly expensive but even then there were predictions that one day they would become very cheap, and be available in bubble packs, as mass production of their electronics became possible. Now, I have no idea as to whether FF (and all other) sensors will drop to far lower prices than at present, but it wouldn't surprise me. The advantage of producing a large high MPixel sensor in massive quantities at a low price would be that it could be used in various different format camera or even multi format cameras. I wouldn't discount any possibilities which lie ahead although I personally suspect that the mainstream sensor (ie most used format) may well be an APS sized one because of bulk as you say.