Sell stocks. Buy Leica lenses and gold...or just the lenses

[Ronan]

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OP i suggest you take some of that money and take a couple business courses. Heck go see your financial/stock adviser, he/she will give you a better idea of where to invest.

 

I think the OP is messing with us but just in case... please don't buy Leica glass in hope of making a profit, even if you do... it would be minimal. You won't put your kids through college/university by doing that.

[Deliberate1]

OP i suggest you take some of that money and take a couple business courses. Heck go see your financial/stock adviser, he/she will give you a better idea of where to invest.

 

I think the OP is messing with us but just in case... please don't buy Leica glass in hope of making a profit, even if you do... it would be minimal. You won't put your kids through college/university by doing that.

 

OP here. Thanks for the advise. As a very successful lawyer for 30 years, running a practice I established, I think I have the "business" thing down pretty well. Put three kids through college all without the need to sell any camera gear so I think I have the "investment" thing down too. And as for making a "profit" on camera gear, that has not happened to me since, well, two weeks ago when I sold a Nikon scanner for twice what I paid for it about 7 years ago. Used those funds for the Leica.

Cheers.

[Peter H]

OP here. Thanks for the advise. As a very successful lawyer for 30 years, running a practice I established, I think I have the "business" thing down pretty well. Put three kids through college all without the need to sell any camera gear so I think I have the "investment" thing down too. And as for making a "profit" on camera gear, that has not happened to me since, well, two weeks ago when I sold a Nikon scanner for twice what I paid for it about 7 years ago. Used those funds for the Leica.

Cheers.

 

Sarky.

 

 

[pico]

Amusing "Threat to erase the NYSE"

[Deliberate1]

Amusing "Threat to erase the NYSE"

 

Precisely my point for starting this thread.

They can have my stock but they'll have to pry my M9 from my cold, dead hands.

[SJP]

If you bought a substantial amount of Leica lenses it could probably outperform the average market. So far the value of my lenses is doing a hell of a lot better than my stock. Not the primary reason to buy them but it does help to "justify" the financial expenditure.

 

MATE anyone?

[stephan_w]

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if the economy goes down, when interests and taxes go up, who will have the money to buy lenses or other goods? Especially goods that can be multiplied without problem? Actually there is some shortage of lenses as there is a kind of hype about Leica. This helps to keep the prices of lenses up, at least for some time, but once it's over, the prices will be normal again.

 

I suggest to buy some farmland instead. Gold is a hype as well, it may duble but will end as all bubles did. Not easy actually to make a good investment without risking to much.

[otto.f]

Why wait to get a $3700 90mm Summicron APO when you can get much of the same performance for a 90mm Elmarit M for less than half the price.

 

Blinded by $$$. From an artistic viewpoint this is sheer nonsense.

The APO Summicron90 is a totally different lens with a totally different rendering and has a very special/specific quality in the domain of selective focus. Nothing against the Elmarit but these are really lenses with a very different character which will invite you to choose them in very different contexts.

[otto.f]

In hard times who the hell is going to be buying Leicas?

 

If Leica/Mr. Kaufmann would have been hypnotized by this question Leica and this forum wouldn't exist anymore

[Deliberate1]

I suggest to buy some farmland instead. .

 

Right about that. Heard a story on NPR yesterday. Corn farmland in US midwest going for $10k an acre because of value of Ethanol production. And in the US, a farmer can be paid not to grow crops. Wish i could find someone who would pay me not to work.

[Ecaton]

OP i suggest you take some of that money and take a couple business courses. Heck go see your financial/stock adviser, he/she will give you a better idea of where to invest.

 

I think the OP is messing with us but just in case... please don't buy Leica glass in hope of making a profit, even if you do... it would be minimal. You won't put your kids through college/university by doing that.

 

Fact is that over the last many years prices for used Leica lenses only went one way, and that is up. Not something one can say about stocks. If your financial adviser tries to convince you of the opposite - FIRE HIM/HER ASAP!

[enboe]

35/aspherical, paid $2500, currently $17000-22000 on ebay

50/1.0, paid $1800, currently $5000-8000 on ebay

A few more examples, but none quite so stunning.

[dhsimmonds]

Take very great care! M lenses are going up because new M lenses are very scarce as Leica are unable at the moment to meet the huge demand created by new M camera sales.

 

What will happen when Leica have completed their ramping up of production to meet the current demand at an acceptable lead time?

 

There is always a turnover of Leica cameras and lenses so sooner or later the used prices will come crashing down again just as everything else does. It's simply a matter of supply and demand that determines prices in lenses, motor cycles or anything else.

 

There is also always the risk that Leica Camera AG will develop a new camera system with new technology that could make the M system look rather sick both photographically and financially!

 

I know as I almost got hurt when Leica decided to "can" the R system and dump all of their R customers, as I had invested heavily in the DMR digital back and half a dozen R lenses.

I did manage to dispose of them very quickly without losing too much, but enough anyway, but that was only thanks to an early personal tip off from a source close to Leica of what was soon to be announced publicly.

 

I doubt if there are many R users who considered their investment in Leica was a sound financial decision! I only invest in a camera system that gives me the tools that I need to do the job and forget it as a financial "hedge fund".

[pico]

Right about that. Heard a story on NPR yesterday. Corn farmland in US midwest going for $10k an acre because of value of Ethanol production. And in the US, a farmer can be paid not to grow crops. Wish i could find someone who would pay me not to work.

 

On the first part - that's farm land value, not general rural value. IOW, the land is flat and not susceptible to rocks emerging (as they do in some places). And the Ethanol subsidy is likely to be cast away. It is not working out. It costs almost as much in traction (conventional fuel to run tractors, harvest machines) as it is supposed to save. Plus it has elevated the price of corn which the powerful beef producers are railing against. It makes their feed more expensive. It typically takes seven years for the cycle to come around so that beef will be very expensive. I don't eat beef. I don't care for that part, but the ethanol industry is really toxic and inefficient in our current motors, even the dual-fuel type.

 

The subsidy to lay land aside - to not work it - is also on the Federal chopping block.

[Posto 6]

It is probable that R-lenses will dramatically financially (and optically) outperform M-lenses over the coming years. The reasons include:

-Better solutions for practical and easy digital photography

-No further production, unlike M-lenses for which supply will dramatically increase by some accounts

-Spectacular quality, range of focal lengths and performance.

 

They are stillrelatively cheap-but not for long I believe!

[leicanet]

My friend, for most, these are hard times.

 

Quite agree...

[Deliberate1]

OP here. Many have suggested that the secondary market will crash if and when new lenses are available, on the theory that supply will finally approach the demand pressures created by the new M9 (and progeny) market. Perhaps, but that is not for certain. It depends, it seems to me, on the price of those new lenses and a consumer's willingness to pay for the privilege and need for brand new. That does not describe me. After spending far too much time immersing myself in the attributes off Leica standard lenses, I set my sights on a used Summicron 50mm. I was not interested in a new Summarit at 2x to 3x the price.The availability of the Summarit had no impact on my decision. Same with the 90mm Elmarit M I got for less than 1/3 the price of a what a new 90mm Summicron would go for at the current, unavailable price. If demand does shift out of the used market once new are available, then demand for used will diminish as should prices. But as new prices increase, there are some of us who find the cost/benefit to be unjustified and we will satisfy ourselves with the old, lovingly cared for lenses y'all discard. And should the next gen M body attract as many new initiates as the M8 and M9 did, the market for lenses may even tighten. After all, you only need one body. But you "need" untold lenses.

And if Leica should discard the M mount altogether, there will be "red" in the street.

David

[Peter H]

OP here. Many have suggested that the secondary market will crash if and when new lenses are available, on the theory that supply will finally approach the demand pressures created by the new M9 (and progeny) market. Perhaps, but that is not for certain. It depends, it seems to me, on the price of those new lenses and a consumer's willingness to pay for the privilege and need for brand new. That does not describe me. After spending far too much time immersing myself in the attributes off Leica standard lenses, I set my sights on a used Summicron 50mm. I was not interested in a new Summarit at 2x to 3x the price.The availability of the Summarit had no impact on my decision. Same with the 90mm Elmarit M I got for less than 1/3 the price of a what a new 90mm Summicron would go for at the current, unavailable price. If demand does shift out of the used market once new are available, then demand for used will diminish as should prices. But as new prices increase, there are some of us who find the cost/benefit to be unjustified and we will satisfy ourselves with the old, lovingly cared for lenses y'all discard. And should the next gen M body attract as many new initiates as the M8 and M9 did, the market for lenses may even tighten. After all, you only need one body. But you "need" untold lenses.

And if Leica should discard the M mount altogether, there will be "red" in the street.

David

 

I don't follow the logic:

 

If, as you suggest, demand shifts out of the used to the new market, and buyers of new lenses sell their used lenses, supply of used lenses will increase, and therefore prices will fall.

 

In order for used prices to increase, the demand will have to outstrip the increased supply.

 

This may of course happen,(and would be good for us if we're net sellers of lenses, but not otherwise) but it isn't a direct consequence of the future you describe. In fact, its the opposite.

[Deliberate1]

I don't follow the logic:

 

If, as you suggest, demand shifts out of the used to the new market, and buyers of new lenses sell their used lenses, supply of used lenses will increase, and therefore prices will fall.

 

In order for used prices to increase, the demand will have to outstrip the increased supply.

 

This may of course happen,(and would be good for us if we're net sellers of lenses, but not otherwise) but it isn't a direct consequence of the future you describe. In fact, its the opposite.

 

I agree with your postulate, but it is not what I proposed. If I sell my 90mm Elmarit M to buy a new 90mm Summicron, then that older lens goes into the used market. If hundreds or thousands like me do the same, and there is only interest in the new market, then used prices will follow the lack of demand. Used will go down and new will go up, depending on supply. That is your theory and I agree with that market dynamic.

I proposed a scenario in which the used market does not collapse because folks like me, new to the Leica market, find the best cost/benefit balance in the used market and will not be attracted to new lenses at such a premium. It is the law of diminishing return. Value vs. price. It is the "price" Leica pays for making such exemplary products which do not become obsolete, just different, from subsequent generations. For the used market to collapse, players in the market must be convinced that the newest crop of lenses is so superior to the older one that they should dump the old, or skip over it, and invest considerable coin in the new. I offer no opinion on this, but some have suggested that the current Summarit line suffers from this challenge. Of course, Leica can always count on those who will buy new. And certainly, there are many who require new offerings for their work. Or those who just need to own the newest and shiniest. As for me, "give me your tired, your poor, your huddled lenses...."

 

Thanks for your thoughts.

David

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[Peter H]

The single biggest factor in the rise of used Leica lens prices is, I believe, the popularity of the M9. This has pulled in so many new or returning M users that all M-fit lenses, new or used, Leica or otherwise, are doing well.

 

Its hard for us all because even a "cheap" old M-lens is still quite expensive by most people's standards.

 

But I'd rather see this strong demand, that can fund new development and ensure a reasonable level of service, and protect used values as well, than a withering-away of the sort that appeared inevitable only a few years ago.

 

In the long run, expensive though it may be, strong demand is a good thing.