sandymc Posted August 30, 2009 Share #21 Posted August 30, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) I'll repeat what I said here: http://www.l-camera-forum.com/leica-forum/customer-forum/94282-leica-camera-ag-closes-fiscal-year.html#post989425 - if someone, presumably Dr. Kaufmann, hadn't injected 9.5 million in new capital earlier this year, Leica would already be technically insolvent. In my experience, capital injections like that are usually accompanied by a "never again; make it work or else" message. Anybody that doesn't think Leica is in deep trouble right now either never had to meet payroll at the end of the week, or is a very major optimist. Sandy Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Advertisement Posted August 30, 2009 Posted August 30, 2009 Hi sandymc, Take a look here What is happening at Leica?. I'm sure you'll find what you were looking for!
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #22 Posted August 30, 2009 I'll repeat what I said here: http://www.l-camera-forum.com/leica-forum/customer-forum/94282-leica-camera-ag-closes-fiscal-year.html#post989425 - if someone, presumably Dr. Kaufmann, hadn't injected 9.5 million in new capital earlier this year, Leica would already be technically insolvent. In my experience, capital injections like that are usually accompanied by a "never again; make it work or else" message. Anybody that doesn't think Leica is in deep trouble right now either never had to meet payroll at the end of the week, or is a very major optimist. Sandy I agree with ALL what you say, and I think that the "usual suspects" on this forum would do well to understand that Leica management had better start delivering soon and stop living in hope, blaming the recession, reminding us that Leica has had 4 decades of being sick as it is wearing a bit thin. In the short term it would appear that there are signs that the recession is easing and people are starting to buy things again albeit slowly. It is also the case that Leica seems to be ready to launch (and hopefully soon volume produce) S2, M9, some lenses, Pradovit.........my view is that the company MUST PUSH HARD on positioning these items in 4 Qtr and selling them like hell...initially at high prices. They need to demonstrate to investors (including Dr Kaufmann I guess) that they have turned the corner and are actually making highly desirable products that people want. My view is by early 2010 they need to widen their target market significantly. My suggestion would be: > Open up "M" business with three initiatives: .................Low cost entry model (M8 perhaps but easier to mfg and volume produce) .................M9 high end unit .................accesories that widen the scope of the "M" into macro and possibly Telephoto, and zoom. Purists will not buy it others will see "M" has become a rangefinder that has system level capability and will buy it. > Use S2 technology and get after high end DSLR market currently occupied by Canon and Nikon by introducing a low entry "S2 Junior" camera body. The S2 lens prices are not that out of sight if compared to competitors. > Subcontract Pradovit (if this is not already the case) to someone like "InFocus" or "Sim2" and get a JV where Leica make the lenses for a unit that should retail at about £4000 (not £8000) , and should use TI chip set 4 , or a later generation. (ie not chip set 3) Bottom line if they cannot ramp up revenues in the short term and show a route to dominate a larger niche that they can own due to their lenses and "M" strengths (plus maybe "S2" ) then the future will continue to be difficult for Dr Kaufmann I guess. I really think they have a great chance if they execute very well over the next few weeks and months. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoppyman Posted August 30, 2009 Share #23 Posted August 30, 2009 Does not look good, and it appears the situation has deteriorated significantly since the full year results to 31 March. To be clear, all of us who have an interest in Leica remaining a going concern have to support them in any way we can. We're not lining the pockets of some fat-cats, instead we're preserving some of the most unique skills in Europe. They make some of the best products in the industry and our photographic world would be a poorer place without them. They deserve our support. Mark I don't pretend to be able to analyse figures or meanings from the reports. There seems no question that Leica is feeling the pain as are many many businesses.Your last paragraph is absolutely the right approach in my opinion. There is a German word "Schadenfreude" which I think describes the attitudes of some forum members. They seem to take delight in criticising Leica at every opportunity and look to "I told you so ' for any mis-steps or problems. Buy a new Leica anything, people. Seems like there will be a new opportunity soon! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andybarton Posted August 30, 2009 Share #24 Posted August 30, 2009 Following the link provided by Howard, it is clearly said that the board has decided to withdraw funds for research and reorganize procurement and sales. I'm speechless. Maybe that's because the R&D work on the S2 is now complete? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #25 Posted August 30, 2009 Or - reading the announcement - it could simply mean that Leica has changed banks. Jaapv unfortunately I believe that you are living in hope and not recognising the reality of the situation. I hope that I am wrong. Again I believe that Leica should be communicating much better and explaining what they are doing rather than have such negative press drive a story that is damaging. They have I believe a great deal to talk about that is very positive. If it is that they have simply changed banks (which I doubt) it is a hell of a way to announce this Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #26 Posted August 30, 2009 There is a German word "Schadenfreude" which I think describes the attitudes of some forum members. They seem to take delight in criticising Leica at every opportunity and look to "I told you so ' for any mis-steps or problems. Buy a new Leica anything, people. Seems like there will be a new opportunity soon! I wish to respond to your first point: > There are indeed some people that have identified since months Leica financial issues and have also constructively suggested what Leica may wish to do. In my case like others I have also identified many of the superb differentiators and innovations that Leica has and the opportunity that represents for the company going forward. > Unfortunately too many people in this forum have since months been in self denial and have attacked anyone who identifies issues at Leica...believe me I know. I think that they have if anything contributed to allowing Leica to feel secure .....the fact that the union so far are not being very helpful to agreeing the package set out by the management speaks volumes. This is NOT "Shadenfreude" at all ...it actually truly pains me to see Leica in the current situation and I sincerely hope that the new products will take them out of it. As for your second point: " What would you have people buy that will affect Solms balance sheet? " > We are told that M8 inventory has gone at Solms and only cameras at dealers are available. > An M8.3 or M9 (not sure what is to be announced yet) for delivery in early September against an unknown spec., price ...could they even ship? > Some lenses maybe? I agree and I may do this but are the ones I am interested in even available yet at a reasonable "special offer" price or is helping Leica a one way street? > S2 ...my dealer has many on order and but as yet they are not shipping I wonder why Leica does not introduce some special offers as a way of stimulating sales as we move towards christmas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andybarton Posted August 30, 2009 Share #27 Posted August 30, 2009 Advertisement (gone after registration) > We are told that M8 inventory has gone at Solms and only cameras at dealers are available. By whom? Who has told us that only cameras in dealers are available? If that is indeed the case, what does that tell you? Leica have stopped making M cameras? Or, Leica have another M camera in production to replace the M8 production? How do you know that Leica aren't about to start delivering, starting on September 10th? I would suggest, Frank, that you don't. Leica's glass isn't full at the moment, but then again, most people's glasses aren't. I see their glass as half full. Not half empty. IF they are about to deliver the digital M camera that people wanted in the first place, I suspect that they are going to be very busy little bees over the next 12 months. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #28 Posted August 30, 2009 Maybe that's because the R&D work on the S2 is now complete? Andy is it really reasonable to believe that a high end lens and camera company ever finishes the R&D cycle? FYI Nokia mobile phones have R&D on the current production (product engineering really to remove bugs), R&D on the next product, R&D on the one behind that, and R&D working at a concept level behind that. It is an ongoing process. If Leica really have an approach to develop the S2 and then that is it ...........in my view it will be interesting to see how many will join the S2 club where there is no evolution or upgrades planned, or new lenses introduced. In my view they need to have an aggressive R&D program, foster innovation and keep pushing to grow their market reach. If they do not they will have a problem. I think Dr Kaufmann gets this and he has given his support to make it happen ...I wonder whether the bankers on the board do and I could well believe that this may have caused frictions, however that is pure speculation on my part. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andybarton Posted August 30, 2009 Share #29 Posted August 30, 2009 Lots of speculation Frank... In your experience as a CEO and a turn-round specialist, would you say that it was reasonable that a company, about to launch a completely new product, into a new market, would have a significant amount of R&D to do? And, would you say that once the initial R&D was completed for that product, it would not be unreasonable for for the amount of money invested in R&D in that product to be to switched to a "development" level? I was in the Solms factory in June 2008. At that time over half of all Leica employees were engaged in R&D. Half of the factory was closed to visitors, for obvious reasons. Unless you are a company such as Apple, who make large profits on a large number of units, over-sized R&D departments must be unsustainable in the long run. I think that it is perfectly reasonable for R&D spend to be reduced, now that the S2 is out of the door (more or less). The R&D department can now concentrate on the S2.2, having made the investment in getting the actual camera itself done. They can R&D it's development, not creation. There are also people working on new lenses, of course, as well as new Ms. But, a lot of this work is built on work that has been already done over the past years, and doesn't require a white paper start-up, like the S2 did. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunsworth Posted August 30, 2009 Share #30 Posted August 30, 2009 FYI Nokia mobile phones have R&D on the current production (product engineering really to remove bugs), R&D on the next product, R&D on the one behind that, and R&D working at a concept level behind that. It is an ongoing process. Do Nokia spend as much on R&D for a phone that's in the market place as they did when it was being developed? I'd speculate that even if there is R&D on a phone that's been launched it's at a much lower level than when the initial development was undertaken. What the lifespan of a mobile phone, and what's the expected lifespan of a camera such as the S2? Again I'd guess that the S2 will be available to buy for more than a little longer that a mobile phone. They are two different industries with totally different business models, you aren't comparing like with like, which from coming from someone who claims to be a CEO is a little surprising. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoppyman Posted August 30, 2009 Share #31 Posted August 30, 2009 Frank I posted after Guy's contibution as quoted. I hadn't seen yours. Yes, we disagree on our attitudes as is obvious. Your comment querying what people should buy makes no sense to me at all. I disagree that there are no M8s to buy. Any supposition that the M8 is discontinued is just that, supposition. I only read that the M8 has ceased production but the M8.2 continues. That is all only forum chatter anyway. The last five dealers I visited in Germany and Australia had stock. The new announcements are soon. Yes we don't know what and when as yet will be available There is a whole catalog of excellent lenses to choose from. More and better than ever before. Purchasing products helps Leica. I wish to respond to your first point:> There are indeed some people that have identified since months Leica financial issues and have also constructively suggested what Leica may wish to do. In my case like others I have also identified many of the superb differentiators and innovations that Leica has and the opportunity that represents for the company going forward. > Unfortunately too many people in this forum have since months been in self denial and have attacked anyone who identifies issues at Leica...believe me I know. I think that they have if anything contributed to allowing Leica to feel secure .....the fact that the union so far are not being very helpful to agreeing the package set out by the management speaks volumes. This is NOT "Shadenfreude" at all ...it actually truly pains me to see Leica in the current situation and I sincerely hope that the new products will take them out of it. As for your second point: " What would you have people buy that will affect Solms balance sheet? " > We are told that M8 inventory has gone at Solms and only cameras at dealers are available. > An M8.3 or M9 (not sure what is to be announced yet) for delivery in early September against an unknown spec., price ...could they even ship? > Some lenses maybe? I agree and I may do this but are the ones I am interested in even available yet at a reasonable "special offer" price or is helping Leica a one way street? > S2 ...my dealer has many on order and but as yet they are not shipping I wonder why Leica does not introduce some special offers as a way of stimulating sales as we move towards christmas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riley Posted August 30, 2009 Share #32 Posted August 30, 2009 i think its a bit early to make any predictions,.. Plenty of businesses have sensibly reorganised in the present business circumstance, with staff taking leave etc. That would suggest to me that, they see a swing back into capacity production sometime soon, with no need to lay people off and all that brings. With 2 cameras on the ramp, Leica is in a good position to sail through yet another stormy environment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #33 Posted August 30, 2009 Lots of speculation Frank... In your experience as a CEO and a turn-round specialist, would you say that it was reasonable that a company, about to launch a completely new product, into a new market, would have a significant amount of R&D to do? And, would you say that once the initial R&D was completed for that product, it would not be unreasonable for for the amount of money invested in R&D in that product to be to switched to a "development" level?. Andy I think we are saying the same thing.....In my opinion please note: What Leica is doing within most of its R&D budget is a very small amount of research (I would believe as it is unclear what if anything is strikingly new out of the research lab.) . Separately they have had a lot of new product development plus hopefully lots of product engineering. > Will the cost of development for S2 new product now drop to zero....maybe > Will the cost of product eng. for S2 at product launch need to increase ...yes. > Will the cost of M9 new product devt drop to zero...maybe > Will the cost of M9 product eng. at product launch need to dramatically increase for what will be the volume cash cow. > Should Leica put devt resources NOW or asap towards S3 and new lenses for S2/3 ..yes > Should Leica put resources to cost reducing M9 and M8 while keeping quality high..Yes > Should Leica put resources towards introcuing something that increases the market niche served by the M camera......fisheye, super wide angle, and yes EVF or whatever that allows access to Macro and Telephoto and Zoom...for those that want it. Should Leica move people out of R&D to production or customer service or quality for the next few months ...probably yes, it would be good education anyway. Should Leica reduce headcount in R&D ...HOPEFULLY NO...this is a very valuable resource. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
barjohn Posted August 30, 2009 Share #34 Posted August 30, 2009 I think everyone is forgetting that the M9 is still a rumor and not a fact. Suppose for the moment that no FF M9 materializes or it is only announced for delivery far off in the future (ala S2), how long can Leica survive on sales of 50 or even 100 S2s? As someone that runs R&D right now I can tell you that R&D on a product is never done where software is involved. Even though we are shipping and installing our software we are also constantly working on improvements, bug fixes, new customer requirements, expanding the market for the product, etc. Developers are a key asset for long term growth and a healthy future. It is only with the greatest reluctance that I will make cuts to the R&D staff as really good developers are hard to find and the knowledge in their heads leaves when they walk out the door. It takes a long time to replace one and bring the person up to the level of productivity and knowledge where they can contribute in a meaningful way. Therefore, if it is true that Leica is cutting back on their R&D staff it has to be because they are being forced to sacrifice the future to survive in the present. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
treeplanter Posted August 30, 2009 Share #35 Posted August 30, 2009 Dire news? Maybe. It does make Leica's September 9th product announcement all that more interesting, and relevant. Jim B. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #36 Posted August 30, 2009 I think everyone is forgetting that the M9 is still a rumor and not a fact. Suppose for the moment that no FF M9 materializes or it is only announced for delivery far off in the future (ala S2), how long can Leica survive on sales of 50 or even 100 S2s? As someone that runs R&D right now I can tell you that R&D on a product is never done where software is involved. Even though we are shipping and installing our software we are also constantly working on improvements, bug fixes, new customer requirements, expanding the market for the product, etc. Developers are a key asset for long term growth and a healthy future. It is only with the greatest reluctance that I will make cuts to the R&D staff as really good developers are hard to find and the knowledge in their heads leaves when they walk out the door. It takes a long time to replace one and bring the person up to the level of productivity and knowledge where they can contribute in a meaningful way. Therefore, if it is true that Leica is cutting back on their R&D staff it has to be because they are being forced to sacrifice the future to survive in the present. John you are correct ...losing any good R&D staff is very very bad news for an innovative company like Leica. In previous situations I have successfully moved R&D staff into temporary positions in product eng., quality, after sales support / service to get more hands to the pump at a critical time....I have always done this on a strictly TEMPORARY basis with a fixed end point as not to do risks losing a key contributor. The experience for the individual is usually recognised to be very good and certainly educational. ...ie fixing the problems of the original flawed design that the individual made! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevelap Posted August 30, 2009 Share #37 Posted August 30, 2009 What is happening at Leica? The Company is busy bringing new products to market whilst putting measures in place to help them cope with the effects of a worldwide recession, like many other businesses around the globe. For the moment, nothing more and nothing less. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #38 Posted August 30, 2009 Do Nokia spend as much on R&D for a phone that's in the market place as they did when it was being developed? I'd speculate that even if there is R&D on a phone that's been launched it's at a much lower level than when the initial development was undertaken. What the lifespan of a mobile phone, and what's the expected lifespan of a camera such as the S2? Again I'd guess that the S2 will be available to buy for more than a little longer that a mobile phone. They are two different industries with totally different business models, you aren't comparing like with like, which from coming from someone who claims to be a CEO is a little surprising. Interesting questions..... Mobile phone lifespan is about 12 months to 18 months...........How long do you think it will take for S2.1 to be announced, or firmware upgrades to be made available? Obviously the S2 new product devt and I guess M9 has consumed heavily resources. In my experience the real problems now begin (think M8 initial launch if you must) and Leica will need skilled technicians as they launch the new products onto the public without pain. Nokia's big fear is getting it right from a quality viewpoint and they spend significant part of the devt budget towards rigorously testing firmware, and hardware . I am sure that Leica will have done the same. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunsworth Posted August 30, 2009 Share #39 Posted August 30, 2009 Interesting questions.....Mobile phone lifespan is about 12 months to 18 months...........How long do you think it will take for S2.1 to be announced, or firmware upgrades to be made available? S2.1 I have no idea. Sure there will be firmware updates for the S2, but the resources needed to produce those updates will be a fraction of those required to produce the camera in the first place and only employ a subset of the original R&D staff. I think it's simplistic to see R&D as one amorphous 'lump' of expertise. There will obviously be people with differing skill sets from hardware engineers to software people, with a host of others in between. I don't expect the S2 to have a lifespan of 12 months. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BigSplash Posted August 30, 2009 Share #40 Posted August 30, 2009 Frank I posted after Guy's contibution as quoted. I hadn't seen yours. Yes, we disagree on our attitudes as is obvious. ...............Purchasing products helps Leica. I am surprised that noone has commented my final comment: Quote I wonder why Leica does not introduce some special offers as a way of stimulating sales as we move towards christmas Unquote. Maybe this will materialise at Sept 9th announcement....it would in my view be a great way to get a sales push going. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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