Leica Stock slightly Down

[Samir Jahjah]

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Leica Camera is listed on the Berlin-BRemen Stock Exchange. Since the introduction of the new Leica share the stock has performed well. At Photokina the share jumped sharply to fall a few days after. When Leica shipped the M8 it soared to above EURO 10, to decline short after. Since then the share follows the mood in this forum: 6-7 days after the camera shipped, the stock started to fall as many new owners discovered their camera had some serious flaws. Since 2 or 3 days, people in the forum are upbeat: a filter is the solution, it will cost nothing to Leica, the share is slightly up!

That being said the volume traded is insignificant according to this chart. A large number of shares were traded at the start of Photokina , and then some before it shipped.

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[blakley]

You're looking at noise, not signal. Price fluctuations of this magnitude over this period of time have essentially no correlation to long-term trends. Price fluctuations this small usually aren't even correlated to specific events.

[Samir Jahjah]

You're looking at noise, not signal. Price fluctuations of this magnitude over this period of time have essentially no correlation to long-term trends. Price fluctuations this small usually aren't even correlated to specific events.

 

 

A 40 percent increase since Photokina is hardly "noise". The 2 events, Photokina and shipment of the M8, can be easily read there. The IR effect though cannot be seen, maybe with a filter !

[blakley]

I'm talking about your statement about events since the shipment of the M8. You seem to be assuming that these are caused by or in some other way linked to the tone of discussions here on the forum. The odds are overwhelming that there's no correlation whatsoever to what we're saying here, or even to issues of magenta casts and green blobs.

 

Even the price changes due to the Photokina announcement and the M8 shipment (assuming for the moment that there is causality there) will be factored back out by adjustment back to rational financial expectations when Leica issues its next quarterly financial report.

 

If there is some terrible disaster and Leica announces withdrawl of all M8s with no replacement, you may see a lasting shift in stock valuation. If you continue to see a product with some technical issues, you'll see the stock driven, as stocks usually are, by the balance sheet.

[Samir Jahjah]

I'm talking about your statement about events since the shipment of the M8. You seem to be assuming that these are caused by or in some other way linked to the tone of discussions here on the forum. The odds are overwhelming that there's no correlation whatsoever to what we're saying here, or even to issues of magenta casts and green blobs.

 

Even the price changes due to the Photokina announcement and the M8 shipment (assuming for the moment that there is causality there) will be factored back out by adjustment back to rational financial expectations when Leica issues its next quarterly financial report.

 

If there is some terrible disaster and Leica announces withdrawl of all M8s with no replacement, you may see a lasting shift in stock valuation. If you continue to see a product with some technical issues, you'll see the stock driven, as stocks usually are, by the balance sheet.

 

 

Of course not, this forum will not have any impact on these movements, that was just a joke ... in the long run what will really matters are the sales, the euro/$ rate etc ...