Now that Leica has it's baby digital....

[bayerische]

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I'm wondering about how often Leica will have to put a new Digital M on the market from now on?

 

Canon introduces 1+ model a year.

 

10mp is average today. I'm not a Mpixel hunter, Perfectly good pictures can be produced with much less than 10MP.

 

I would like to see a Full-frame sensor soon in a M-body.

 

Canon and Nikon are moving toward getting 20MP+ sensors in their bodies, Mamiya already have one.

 

Another question of mine, or maybe not so much of question but more of a wondering what do you guys think will happen to the Used M8 prices?

 

Will it suffer the mutilating price fall of Canon and Nikon? -60 to 70% in the first 2 years?

 

As an example. The 1Ds was in Finland roughly 8000 euros when introduced. You can get a slighly corner rashed, but otherwise perfectly working sample of it for under 2000euro from a "respected" dealer with a month or two guarantee.

 

Leica have never suffered the same price-fall as other brands, but this is with film cameras. A classic such as a M film body never goes out of style, but as the Pixel War wages, won't the M8 become obsolete pretty fast with a cropped sensor and "only" 10MP?

 

If not with amateurs, what about the professionals?

 

(As a footmark, I don't wish to offend Leica, just interested in your views. I could imagine that this question has been asked, and maybe even aswered already. If this is the case, I apologize.)

[stunsworth]

Not a clue I'm afraid, but I'd be very suprised if Leica introduced life cycles as short as Nikon and Canon - and lets be honest was there a gret deal of differnece between the Canon 30D and the 20D it replaced?

 

The life cycle will probably dictate how the camera holds it value. The main reason the digital SLRs take such a hit in their value is because they are seen as obsolete.

[bayerische]

Not a clue I'm afraid, but I'd be very suprised if Leica introduced life cycles as short as Nikon and Canon - and lets be honest was there a gret deal of differnece between the Canon 30D and the 20D it replaced?

 

The life cycle will probably dictate how the camera holds it value. The main reason the digital SLRs take such a hit in their value is because they are seen as obsolete.

 

 

I hope that Leica will not put out a new model once a year.

 

And, no, the 30D makes no other purpose than "Money making".

[Riley]

i think M8 has been a major adventure for Leica, and they are unlikely to produce another similar camera all that soon. perhaps the dSLR though....

 

s/h prices go by demand, and ebay is a good guide for that. if you take the D2 as an example, there have been mint D2's that im sure have traded for more than new

 

Riley

[graham_mitchell]

The problem with the megapixel race theory is that there are limits on how small photosites can be without introducing excessive noise, and the existing lenses can only provide so much useful resolution.

 

You write that Canon and Nikon are "moving toward getting 20MP+ sensors in their bodies" but in fact I heard that Canon dropped the idea due to image quality issues, and I never heard anything about Nikon even trying. My guess is that 35mm format DSLRs will plateau at around 16MP (and that's if they are full-frame).

 

So the 10MP M8 is not in such a poor position after all. The quality of the lenses count for a lot and Leica customers know this.

 

I wouldn't expect to see an M9 for 3 years at least. I hope we see an R10 before then. Perhaps the R and M products will be introduced alternately every 1.5 years or so.

[rainer viertlböck]

i agree.....

a three year cicle will make sense.

[artur5]

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I, for one, would be happy if they fixed the actual issues on the M8. ( and I bet Leica too )

10Mp is enough for a 1.33x FOV. I'd rather improve the noise at high ISOs and the DR.

[bayerische]

Graham:

 

I don't think so. If Canon the Giant would stop the MP race, then sales would also halt.

 

The digital camera business is a good one. Can be compared to the computer industry.

 

It used to be so, back in the film days, that you bought your film camera and used it for 10years or even more, no matter if it was a Nikon, Canon or a Leica. Now? If an amateur uses his DSLR for a bit over two years I'm surprised.

 

Big money is to be made in digital Photography and Canon for one is not going to let this stop. But hey, I'm no market analyst.

[stunsworth]

Graham:

 

I don't think so. If Canon the Giant would stop the MP race, then sales would also halt.

 

Nah, you just add additional features and promote it as a new model :-). Unless new sensor technology is developed we have to hit the buffers at some point - look at the pronlems the p7s market has with noise.

 

So I'd expect cameras to be relunched as new models with the issue of sensor dust addressed, and how about a built in GPS system that would link into Google maps so you could see exactly where you were when you took a shot.

[Riley]

just quietly, i think people are getting a bit wary of Mp race

the next fad will be miniaturisation

just like cell phones, smaller will be better

Olympus is prepared with the smallish E400 dSLR

Fuji is prepared with high iso (3,200) capable pocket camera sensors

 

Riley

[jpbeer]

In order to judge the obsolescence of the future digital M line, I think the best is to look at the unique selling points of the M's (objective and subjective). Leica has some, but in my sense the size and resolution of the sensor is not among the ones to consider highly.

 

VF, yes definitely.

Lenses, of course.

Form factor: dwindling advantage. (Look at some 3/4 products.)

Manual mode: yes this is an important one and won't obsolete. Few competitors will choose this path. But it is a restricted market.

Aesthetics: yes.

Build quality: yes

 

I think Leica themselves will dictate the way the cameras keep their value. If they bring new stuff quickly on the market or improve the products using gradual enhancements. I think they hve a chance using the second alternative, because they cater to a niche market and have been known for being consistent in time.

 

This all said, assuming the products are of the highest quality of course.

 

Cheers

JP

[carstenw]

Andreas, the 1Ds, whose value now is 25% of its new-value, is at this point 4 years old, and it would probably be worth more if it was in as-new condition. A high-end Canon doesn't lose that much value that quickly, maybe 20% in the first year, and less thereafter. Leicas lose less than that. A good test would be the second-hand value of an R9 and a DMR. Even the little digicams, like the Digilux-2 keep their value surprisingly well. I think the M8 value will be relatively stable for quite some time.

 

I also don't believe that the megapixel-race will continue as it has done up until this point. There are already signs of slowing down, like the Canon 30D staying at 8MP. At some point, the sensors outresolve the lenses (especially Canon lenses ), and at this point you will not gain anything from higher resolutions. Mom and Pop might not notice that, but the semi-/professionals sure will.

 

I think at this point the megapixels have almost stabilised, and advancements will come in other areas, such as high ISO, colour, dynamic range, battery life, and so on, and these are much more difficult to make advancements in than just adding another 15% pixels, so it will take longer.

[bayerische]

My Leica digilux 1, I could now get perhaps 150-200euros for. (If somebody even want it) New price in Finland 2002 was 1350euro.

 

But for me, film rulez, but I know it's only a question of time when I'll go for the plunge and get the M8 :)