Is R10 or a brand new Digital-R coming ?

[Riley]

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Duh. Nikon couldn't sell too many full frame cameras in 2006 as they didn't make any.

Your example shows a really peculiar way to apply one statistic as a projection for another statistic. So what if FF and 1.3 crop cameras only account for for 2-3 percent of global SLR sales? That total figure includes many manufacturers whereas only Canon made FF and 1.3x crop DSLR cameras last year. (Plus a few DMRs.) For all I know maybe full frame and 1.3x cameras accounted for 8.3% of Canon's sales figures in 2006.

 

There is a lot of pent up demand for a full frame Nikon and the $5,000 range will make this camera quite attractive. Thus even accurate past statistics from Canon would be pretty meaningless when applied to Nikon customers. If they don't sell 144,000 D3s next year they'll be wrong and you'll be right. So???

 

the stats held are accurate to the letter and widely known

 

the higher priced Nikon compared to 5D may well spike sales early, but i cant see the Nikon outselling a camera half its price. I would like to meet the production/logistics team that propose to deal with production rated between 2-3% and 8%, (almost 4x from base) when you could equally suggest that the market would soon saturate, and return to a datum 2-3% of existing sales, but shared between C&N and possibly SONY soon too.

 

So my rough 'analysis' easily determines a nonsensical argument

[sdai]

These high end cameras are selling quite well actually, I don't have the exact numbers but I still remember that it took about five months for my dealer to clear his back order when the 1Ds was introduced ... and the first unit ever sold in the country went to an amateur.

 

Just go ask around, you'll hear the same stories what a hot cake these 1D2, 1Ds2, D2Xs cameras can be.

[mjh]

but he appears to be quoting production facility for FF camera exceeding 8% when the existing global market judges FF WITH 1.3x crop to be just 2-3%, so theres a 5% excess gap

The “existing global market” in this statistics is Canon’s market, previously the only vendor offering FF DSLRs. Nikon seems to be optimistic about the number of customers switching to the D3.

[Guest guy_mancuso]

Nikon will do well here. Now for me i like to go back and find the guy at PMA about 5 years ago that told me in a extremely arrogant way that you don't need FF camera's ,Nikon makes the best camera's around this is a sales rep talking, of course i laughed at him then. I like to kick him in the teeth now and see how much he chokes on those words. LOL

[Riley]

i bet he works for Canon now....

[AlanG]

the stats held are accurate to the letter and widely known

 

the higher priced Nikon compared to 5D may well spike sales early, but i cant see the Nikon outselling a camera half its price. I would like to meet the production/logistics team that propose to deal with production rated between 2-3% and 8%, (almost 4x from base) when you could equally suggest that the market would soon saturate, and return to a datum 2-3% of existing sales, but shared between C&N and possibly SONY soon too.

 

So my rough 'analysis' easily determines a nonsensical argument

 

Your statistics would have a lot more logic if you figured the total number of Canon ff and 1.3x cameras compared with Canon's total dSLR sales. For all we know, Canon may sell considerably more than 144,000 ff and 1.3x cameras per year. And the Nikon D3 sales will replace the D2X and D2H. So D3 sales should be comparable to what those generated plus more. Outselling the Canon 5D has nothing to do with this situation. There are a lot of Nikon users out there who will be interested in the D3. And most of them have no interest in switching to Canon or they would have done so already. One thing I would bet on is that Nikon did considerable market research estimating how many D3s they could sell before they designed and went into production with it. Maybe they are lying about how many they plan to produce to confuse the competition. ;-)

 

Why are you stuck on this statistical dead end? I just don't see how you can use statistics for a year when Nikon made no full frame cameras to extrapolate how their sales of a full frame camera will be two years later. A lot changes in two years. The overiding point is that Nikon and Canon sell way more cameras than Leica does. So they have greater resources to produce new models. (Risk and all.) I really don't care how many D3s Nikon sells, I was just giving you their announced production figures and gave you the source. I can't argue them. Believe them or not.

 

What difference does this make to you? Is your point that Leica shouldn't make a FF dSLR because the market is too small? I'm not sure where you are going with this.

[Jamie Roberts]

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I want (for a R10 or future M9) a full frame sensor, small overall size for the body, better battery life, and much, much better (lower) high ISO noise. Simplicity would be welcomed. I find the M8 a not-so-good low light instrument, even using Summiluxes. The M8 is a 2006 camera, isn't? Well, this x1,33 crop 10MP sensor cannot compete against the 1D Mark III in terms of noise either.

 

Ruben, that's perhaps fair enough; though I do think the M8 is the "first of its kind" for Leica so I'm cutting them some small bits of slack. I think of it in the same generation as the 5d (later than the 1ds2, before the 1d3) though in truth the M8 was widely available, what? Almost a year after the 5d?

 

As for actual shots and quality in low light, well, to tell the truth I just saw a bunch of wedding formals shot at high ISO (3200) on the 1d3 and I was not really very impressed.

 

I could have gotten the same quality using the M8 at ISO 1250 without any trouble at all (though I might have had to add some light).

 

But the 100% detail wasn't very different where it counts; of course, the Canon was 1 stop plus more sensitive... But at ISO 3200, when you're adding additional strobe lights, it was still very noisy in the shadows, and not that well defined.

 

So IMO you're just showing off. And losing DR for the final print. I wouldn't shoot shots like that anyway (except, of course, by mistake... and mistakes do happen!)

 

See, I guess I'm saying I have the choice, as a Canon shooter and still invested in Canon glass, to use a 1d3 or an M8.

 

I'll take the M8.

 

What I want is a replacement for my 5d. Now there, IMO, Canon knocked the ball out of the park. It's a great, full-frame, reasonably high resolution, compact, efficient package.

 

But it doesn't accept my R series wides, not even with an adapter. I swear if I could get my 19, 28 and 35 Lux to work with the 5d (or its replacement), then it would be a lot dodgier with the R10.

 

But, the colour and contrast and detail on the DMR does kick the 5d around a bit. It still kicks the 1d3 around a bit too.

 

So if Leica can get the "next generation" sensor and firmware out there, then yes--the R10 could be a big hit.

 

For me personally, the R10 has to deep six the next 5d replacement. That might be hard to do, for sure.

 

But in any case, I do agree low light could be better on the M8 and hopefully it will be on the R10.

[mjh]

I would like to meet the production/logistics team that propose to deal with production rated between 2-3% and 8%, (almost 4x from base) when you could equally suggest that the market would soon saturate, and return to a datum 2-3% of existing sales, but shared between C&N and possibly SONY soon too.

There’s no reason to assume that 2–3 percent is the FF market now and forever, when these figures refer to a single vendor’s models. You seem to assume that anyone who believed that a FF DSLR was generally desirable would get an EOS 1Ds or 5D, but that’s not really likely. A photographer having invested in Nikon gear and, everything considered, happy with this system wouldn’t switch to Canon just for having a FF body. There must be quite a few Nikon photographers wanting a FF DSLR for years, and only now can they get one. The total FF market will grow considerably, and that is unlikely to change in the coming years. While I am not convinced that FF will soon trickle down to mid-range and eventually entry-level DSLRs, as APS-C or FourThirds offers some advantages there, I don’t believe that the global FF market will stay at 2 to 3 percents either, now that there is an alternative to Canon’s products.

[rosuna]

You are right Jamie. I agree.

 

However, the M8 has a basic ISO of 160 (200 in reallity), this is, a stop higher than 5D or 1D Mark III. I mentioned the last camera just because the sensor size and resolution are the same, but noise performance of the 5D is superb as well. Dpreview comparison seems to show a similar noise performance at high ISOs, but that is not true.

 

I am sure Leica will present an exciting camera, but it isn't an easy task. The M8 wasn't either.

[Riley]

Maybe they are lying about how many they plan to produce to confuse the competition. ;-)

 

thats the essence of what im saying, perhaps panders to the Nikon crowd too.

 

Why are you stuck on this statistical dead end? I just don't see how you can use statistics for a year when Nikon made no full frame cameras to extrapolate how their sales of a full frame camera will be two years later. A lot changes in two years. The overiding point is that Nikon and Canon sell way more cameras than Leica does. So they have greater resources to produce new models. (Risk and all.) I really don't care how many D3s Nikon sells, I was just giving you their announced production figures and gave you the source. I can't argue them. Believe them or not.

 

Remember Nikon are essentially quite small, with some 20,000 employees, Im doubting the capacity to be this flexible. There are many issues in designing a line or plant that could tender to such a wide estimation.

 

What difference does this make to you? Is your point that Leica shouldn't make a FF dSLR because the market is too small? I'm not sure where you are going with this.

 

the presence of D3 will probably mean a new 5D, and the presence of both has an impact on R10. Either a lot more users with more need to use German glass, or a wholly more sophisticated R10 than what i see spoken of here.

[sdai]

I must admit that I don't understand these comparisons of Leica and Canon, or Nikon ...

 

True, more people will buy Ford, Toyota, GM trucks etc. and the number of employees hired by these companies are probably more than the population on a Pacific island ... but the Bugatti Veyron, mostly handbuilt in a small shop in France, is also selling quite well.

[S. Wong]

Based on how long its taken to get a DSLR to the Leica stable after the demise of the DMR, leica either has to really revolutionize the market and regain some market share and new customers (pros)...

or they need to call it quits on the SLR market

 

The Leicasonic Digilux-3/L1 creation does not really count, IMHO, due to the clear lack of lenses and failure to deliver on one of the most important aspects of the camera, the viewfinder

I can't imagine them really surviving with a flop of a DSLR after years of no DSLR at all.

The company just doesn't have the resources nor expertise, nor the timeframe on new products in this digital age. C/N's product cycle is around 3 years, but offset by other grades of DSLRS, so they have a new one arriving around 18mos or even faster (D40/D40x)

 

Since Leica is on the 5 year cycle (and on track too), they really need almost 2 more products, offset evenly, to keep the line looking reasonably fresh.

 

The M8 was offset, what, 2 years?

Thats fine, now we just need a third camera for the digital market, R10-E, a test platform for the latest and greatest, and get the bugs worked out in that revision.

 

they should all use the same sensor, and start anew with the R-E DSLR

 

if these are present in the R10 (if it ever comes), it will not be my camera, and may perhaps fail:

IR issues

Live-view poorly implemented (See Leicasonic Digilux3/L1)

poor/dark, less than 97% viewfinder

overly porky, non-optional vertical grip for extra batteries (N D3/C 1d*)

fails to be backwards compatible

2x sd slots (or whatever flash card of choice)

HDMI / eSATA / USB2 ports

 

I would like but would not be deal breakers:

ASA / Kelvin / Shutter wheels, all with an 'A' setting, programmable

-Steven

[AlanG]

...the presence of D3 will probably mean a new 5D, and the presence of both has an impact on R10. Either a lot more users with more need to use German glass, or a wholly more sophisticated R10 than what i see spoken of here.

 

There is no doubt that the 5D will be replaced. And the D3 may push up its release schedule. I bet the number of people who will use "German" glass on Canons and Nikons will be statistically insignificant.

 

And I agree that any new dSLR from Leica should be as sophisticated and as useful as the best from Nikon and Canon or what is the point?

 

As for questioning if Nikon has the ability to manufacture 144,000 D3s a year... You said they produced 1.7+ million dSLRs in 2006. So what do they have to lie about?

 

They recently gave a number of journalists a tour of the D3 plant:

Rob Galbraith DPI: Nikon D3, D300 already being manufactured for sale in November

[Riley]

As for questioning if Nikon has the ability to manufacture 144,000 D3s a year... You said they produced 1.7+ million dSLRs in 2006. So what do they have to lie about?

 

not questioning their ability but their capacity, to cope with the variation in demand for it seems a wide range, and the long term marketability of a FF camera in the numbers discussed. Will they sell at those numbers ? I doubt it.

 

the D40 has been doing very very well, and as has been said, these and other APS C cameras are the mainstay of sales. But i would have thought the production of entry level cameras was widely different to professional level dSLRs. It is just this way with Canon, who keep those cameras on separate lines, indeed a separate plant. OTOH, other non pro cameras lend themselves more to batch production within the same complex, that is one of Panasonic's core skills.

[Jamie Roberts]

There is no doubt that the 5D will be replaced. And the D3 may push up its release schedule. I bet the number of people who will use "German" glass on Canons and Nikons will be statistically insignificant.

{snipped}

 

Probably depends on whose stats you read I'm sure Zeiss had some good numbers before they started making that Nikon mount compatible glass.

 

And of course while I can't prove anything, I think it's pretty interesting that Canon brought out a 50mm lens that is actually worthy of their cameras not too long after people discovered they could bolt old used Summicrons on their 1ds2 or 5d and get better results than the Canon 50 1.4

[marknorton]

The mind boggles at the thought of 15000 people being employed in Thailand to turn out 60000 examples of the D300 a month, not to mention D80s, D40s and who knows what else.

[Guest guy_mancuso]

Jamie after years of guys like us bolting on Zeiss and leica glass on there bodies to get better results maybe the light bulb went off. They still have a ways to go. They have some sweeties but not enough for FF shooting in the wide arena. Now Nikon looks like they figured that out on there release of this new body with FF a 14mm and new wide zoom. Of course we don't know how good they are yet but at least it's good to see they were thinking ahead. Canon just spits out bodies without a plan but there slowly getting it. This move on Nikons part will get them into the design booth with glass. Most folks don't realize the years of this war between them for market share, these companies hate each other this is a classic football rivarly. There constantly trying to out man the other guy, we seen this for years. Now for Leica they need to keep there head and spit out something that beats the other guy on image which IMHO is what they have done already with the DMR and M8. They just need to stay within striking distance feature wise, they don't need the bells and whistles like Canon and Nikon but they still need good ergonomics and smart features that make sense. They certainly need at minimum focus confirmation with there Rom contacts so they still can be backwards compatible , a good LCD maybe 3 inches is too much for some but at least 2.5 and able to see in daylight. 5d in size any bigger and folks are simply going to get a 1dsMKIII. Has to be 18mpx and no less. Be it you want it or not but has to be Full Frame . My guess it still will be Kodak and No AA filter or most of us won't buy it or better. New flash for it , some fresh glass and actually 2 or 3 AF zooms . It's also has to have some speed to it , yes a buffer that can at least handle 8 raw frames and be at least 3fps or better but does not need 8 fps stuff, it's not that kind of camera. MUST be 16 bit and have the DR of medium format or there just pissing there investment away. This is where it counts and that is the image plus a few other little smart thing and be released one month after Photokinia 2008 or sooner.

[AlanG]

...Canon just spits out bodies without a plan but there slowly getting it. This move on Nikons part will get them into the design booth with glass...

 

I read the information about the latest release of Canon's DPP raw conversion software. It incorporates 4 types of digital correction of optical defects and so far they have mapped out 29 lenses. This is similar to what DxO does so I think Canon certainly gets it. To help achieve the best results Canon now is incorporating distance information into the EXIF data.

 

I have come to the conclusion that this will be accepted as a standard way to get the best quality from a given camera. Eventually this will probably be incorporated into the camera's firmware once processing power is sufficient. So Leica or any other company probably needs to take a holistic approach to total imaging quality.

 

If Leica is actually working on a new digital SLR (other than 4/3ds) I don't see why they are keeping it a secret.

[marknorton]

It's interesting that Leica have announced a new range of spotting scopes nearly a full year before they will be available.

 

Not so with the R10 and I'm slightly depressed that all this speculation about it may continue for at least another year before there's any hint of an announcement, by which time Canon and Nikon will have gained further ground, the R series of lenses will be another year older and without enhancement and innovation.

[Advertisement]

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Look here: Interesting Leica gear

[andybarton]

Spotting scopes are in the dark ages, technology-wise, though, Mark. Therefore pre-announcing a new model isn't going to bite Leica in the bum, as it might do with something as sophisticated as the R10 will have to be.

 

There was, if you recall, similar, but much more fevered speculation about the M8 (or was it going to be the MD, or the M7D... ? ) before that was announced last year. But, there were no real leaks a long time prior to Photokina, which is credit to those beta testers with cast iron NDAs round their necks - or worse.

 

I don't think that Leica are bothered what the Japanese are doing. If they are working on an R10, they will be doing it their way.