Deliberate1 Posted October 6, 2011 Share #1 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Advertisement (gone after registration) How many of us have seen our stock portfolios hit the skids lately. And how many have seen, at the same time, the value of their Leica lens collections appreciate in a double digit way. I am new to Leica ownership. I got my M9 early last month - a demo from Dale for about 15% cheaper than new. Shocking. A used camera that depreciates only 15%? I was told that was a splendid deal. Sure, "when" the M10 comes out that is likely to change, but not because the camera is "used" but because it is from an earlier generation. Â And then I looked into the cost of lenses and soon determined I was trading in a commodity market. Fascinating synergy. No new lenses, or extremely limited availability, from the manufacturer. Decades of older lenses most lovingly cared for by their owners. Incremental improvements, if any, from generation to generation making obsolescence nearly irrelevant. Or because the new lenses (ie:Summarit) whose pedigrees are challenged when compared to their more robust predecessors. And a fantastically successful, new digital body attracting more into the market competing for a limited amount of lenses. Classic supply and demand. Â I spent time on Ebay studying the price trends - all up. It seemed that with every new crop of lenses up for grabs, the prices increased. Always a few on the lower end - cleaning marks or the like. Most trading within a middle range. And some in the vanguard, pushing prices ever higher. I was amazed to find that some were selling used 90mm Macro Elmar sets for more than then new price of the same set currently in stock and available. Ultimately, I found a 50mm Summicron in perfect shape for $700. I felt a bit guilty paying the guy's asking price knowing what I know about the "true" market value of that gem. And then I began looking for a 90mm Elmarit M. Scoured the web. Again, the same market dynamic - some low, most in a middle range and a few price pioneers. I got a mint one for $1465 from an Ebay seller. This was the cheapest of the mint ones. Cheaper ones admitted cleaning marks," or "dust" or some cosmetic imperfection. Higher priced ones offered no obviously advantage except for a Leica box which mine does not come with. But today I saw an empty Leica box for $25. Amazing. Â I can not get out of my mind that I am not just buying lenses but am trading in a commodity whose values fluctuate internationally and quite vigorously. From that perspective, I considered the Summicron and Elmarit to be good "investments" because they are both the the practical equal of their progeny, and can be had for up to 50% less, even if you could find the newest versions. Why wait to get a $3700 90mm Summicron APO when you can get much of the same performance for a 90mm Elmarit M for less than half the price. And from an investment perspective, no more Elmarits are being made. The upward pressure is much greater than that of the current 90mm Summicron which is still in production though absent from the market. Who knows, if that current model remains unavailable, perhaps the Elmarit will reach par value with it. Life was so much easier, but less interesting, with my Nikon kit. Happy trading, David Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Advertisement Posted October 6, 2011 Posted October 6, 2011 Hi Deliberate1, Take a look here Sell stocks. Buy Leica lenses and gold...or just the lenses. I'm sure you'll find what you were looking for!
StephenPatterson Posted October 6, 2011 Share #2 Â Posted October 6, 2011 A decade ago you could not buy a Harley Davidson motorcycle for list. My local dealer (and friend) was selling every new bike he could get his hands on and was still not able to meet demand. The market was full of speculators, who bought from small dealers at close to list then marked up from $3000 to $5000 over list. Â Anybody visited a Harley dealership lately? Lots of inventory, with prices well discounted below list. There are also now lots of options for a classic style big twin bike, many from Japan. Â I like Leica, but I only buy for my needs. For instance I have no interest in speculating on new Noctilux lenses, because it just makes it harder for those who really do need this lens for their work to get one. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
algrove Posted October 6, 2011 Share #3 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Glad to see you are a very deliberate one about your Leica purchases. Now go have fun! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter H Posted October 6, 2011 Share #4  Posted October 6, 2011 A decade ago you could not buy a Harley Davidson motorcycle for list. My local dealer (and friend) was selling every new bike he could get his hands on and was still not able to meet demand. The market was full of speculators, who bought from small dealers at close to list then marked up from $3000 to $5000 over list. Anybody visited a Harley dealership lately? Lots of inventory, with prices well discounted below list. There are also now lots of options for a classic style big twin bike, many from Japan.  I like Leica, but I only buy for my needs. For instance I have no interest in speculating on new Noctilux lenses, because it just makes it harder for those who really do need this lens for their work to get one.  I admit I don't know much about bikes so I'm expecting to be corrected here, but it seems to me that while Leica lenses combine superb performance with that cool cachet that also makes them highly desirable even to people who don't use them much, Harley's are not very good bikes compared with German or Japanese competition, so they rely much more heavily on image, and even that is far from being universally admired.  Am I totally wrong? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pico Posted October 6, 2011 Share #5  Posted October 6, 2011 I admit I don't know much about bikes so I'm expecting to be corrected here, but it seems to me that while Leica lenses combine superb performance with that cool cachet that also makes them highly desirable even to people who don't use them much, Harley's are not very good bikes compared with German or Japanese competition, so they rely much more heavily on image, and even that is far from being universally admired. Am I totally wrong?  Harley Big Twins today share the mystique of the old ones, but the engineering is very different. They have much larger engines and are actually well built. Yeah, it's a macho machine.  Some of the Harley is built in Asia - wheels, lights, electronics, and have been for decades. Oh, and the Big Twin is now also being assembled in India, but supposedly not for export. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliberate1 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share #6 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Never thought my thread would be enveloped by that iconic Harley exhaust note.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff S Posted October 6, 2011 Share #7 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Advertisement (gone after registration) You said it yourself; supply and demand at work. And when supply catches up, say with the new factory, price trends will likely follow. That's the relevant comparison to Harley; their prices went up dramatically when supply ran short, then quickly corrected thereafter. Nothing new or remarkable here. Â Cameras and lenses are merely tools for me. But, then I suppose there are those who collect hammers, too. Â Jeff Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpalme Posted October 6, 2011 Share #8 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Production is suppose to quadruple so I suspect supply will catch up at some point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pico Posted October 6, 2011 Share #9 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Never thought my thread would enveloped by that iconic Harley exhaust note.... Â I'm posting too much so will quit after this one. If I'm lucky, I'll get to shoot a super-hot Harley Big Twin with a new style turbocharger. It's a work of art! I wish I could record it because they tell me it has an entirely different turbo whine. (I can't hear well enough, so it would be cool to record it and have someone tell me.) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tobey bilek Posted October 6, 2011 Share #10  Posted October 6, 2011 The problem with gold is 5 fold.  All transactions over $10,000 are reported to the government  Does the gold really exist in ETF  When the big crash comes, will there be a market for gold, ie buyers  You need to pay to store gold  YOu need to be aware of fake ingots. Chinese got a pallet load recently  If you store gold, then you need to pay to transport it and to have it reassayed if you sell  The government may AGAIN require you turn in gold like in 1930 something  But if you want to take a flyer on 100 grand or so, probably ok. Just don`t go too big. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliberate1 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share #11  Posted October 6, 2011 The problem with gold is 5 fold. All transactions over $10,000 are reported to the government  Does the gold really exist in ETF  When the big crash comes, will there be a market for gold, ie buyers  You need to pay to store gold  YOu need to be aware of fake ingots. Chinese got a pallet load recently  If you store gold, then you need to pay to transport it and to have it reassayed if you sell  The government may AGAIN require you turn in gold like in 1930 something  But if you want to take a flyer on 100 grand or so, probably ok. Just don`t go too big.  Those leica gems looking better all the time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ismon Posted October 6, 2011 Share #12 Â Posted October 6, 2011 One can always get more gold fron a hole in the ground, but they are not making any more Thambars, etc. Gold makes a nifty paperweight--Elmars are useful (and fun) tools. The government doesn't know what a Summarex is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliberate1 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share #13 Â Posted October 6, 2011 The government doesn't know what a Summarex is. And when they figure it out you can expect a "Leica Tax," based on marginal tax rates determined by focal length. Then watch the value of long lenses.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ismon Posted October 6, 2011 Share #14 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Think HOOPY, SOOHN and SUOOQ. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliberate1 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share #15 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Think HOOPY, SOOHN and SUOOQ. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronan Posted October 6, 2011 Share #16 Â Posted October 6, 2011 Leica glass as an investment? Really? REALLY!?... Â If you got 100 grand you want to invest, theirs a couple hundred better options out there. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pico Posted October 7, 2011 Share #17 Â Posted October 7, 2011 Buy up homes around colleges and universities and you won't got broke. Â Real estate is no longer made. Gold can be discovered. Silver the same. Nobody screws with land. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pico Posted October 7, 2011 Share #18 Â Posted October 7, 2011 Those leica gems looking better all the time. Â In hard times who the hell is going to be buying Leicas? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deliberate1 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share #19 Â Posted October 7, 2011 In hard times who the hell is going to be buying Leicas? Â My friend, for most, these are hard times. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
*j-w-m* Posted October 7, 2011 Share #20 Â Posted October 7, 2011 If you believe Warren Buffett's approach, now is the time to sell Leica lenses, while others are greedily snatching them up and immediately reselling them for profit. I don't see a whole lot more upside to the current price trends especially if Leica increases production. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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