M8 release speculation

[jrc]

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There was speculation a year ago that the M8 would be announced at the US photo show in February; that didn't pan out, but there was already some information floating around on it then. My question is this: if the machine is already in production, or close to it, would Leica delay sales past the point when they had supplies, just so they could announce it at Photokina? I mean, it's not a surprise any more. I doubt that there are few interested people in the photo world who don't know about it; and it's not like the Times (any Times) is going to put it on their front page...So who would Leica impress by waiting until Photokina? Not their stockholders, for certain, who I think would be interested in getting the money flow started as soon as possible...Or perhaps they've just made Photokina into an artificial goal, and they plan to keep fooling with the firmware until the last possible second?

 

I will accept all speculation, including that based on ideology, simple-mindedness or complete ignorance.

 

JC

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[Guest stnami]

.......dunno

[Guest lll]

No rumors, just information on the Forumstreffen 6 weeks ago: They are still hard at work on the firmware and will indeed need every second until photokina. Together with some other information it sounded reliable.In the current stadium there is still a lot of room for picture quality improvements and they will squeeze it out as much as possible in the remaining time.

 

BTW: interesting things from the new official Leica-newsletter (released 12th. of July):

"Die Objektive des Leica Messsuchersystems werden zukuenftig mit einer neuen Codierung am Bajonettring ausgestattet. Diese dient der geplanten digitalen Leica M-Kamera dazu, den jeweiligen Objektivtyp zu erkennen und unterstuetzt damit die Kamera bei der Optimierung der Bildqualitaet. ... Aktuelle und viele fruehere Objektivmodelle koennen auf Kosten der Eigentuemer nachgeruestet werden, um die kameraseitige Bildoptimierung zu nutzen."

Means in short that there really will be a variable in-camera-picture-optimising depending on the used lens. So it´s not only writing the focal length int the EXIF data...

 

Friedhelm

[adan]

PhotoKina has/will serve several functions for Leica:

 

1. It's a hard deadline outside Leica's control - which I'm sure was useful to Dr. Spichtig in inculcating a new "Git 'er done!" culture within the Leica organization, and establishing credibility with the investors that he (and Leica) CAN meet a deadline after years of "a day late and a dollar short" (the DMR, the R8 motor, etc.)

 

There's a 'Nonsequitur' cartoon titled "God's Editor" in which a disgruntled Creator is being admonished by an eyeshaded, ink-spattered boss. "Yes, I know how you like to work." says the editor, "but it doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be finished in 6 days". I think Dr. S. and Photokina have played the role of the editor for Leica.

 

2. PhotoKina will be the 'coming-out party' for the new, reorganized, refinanced, remanaged Leica GMBH. A lot of new stuff beside the M8 itself - the first elements of the "D" line of 4/3rds cameras, the new M superwide, likely a D-Lux 3, and probably some sports optics goodies (rumored - a full-scale amateur astonomical telescope?). Spoiling the "splash" by dribbling out bits and pieces over a couple of months is not smart marketing.

 

3. The moment the M8 becomes 'official' there is going to be huge demand (at least by Leica standards). I'll bet by Oct. 1 preorders worldwide will be in the 10,000 range. Again, from the standpoint of marketing, and of refurbishing Leica's reputation as a 'can-do' organization, it is more effective to make one BIG announcement and be able to ship 5,000 cameras the next week, and another 5,000 by the beginning of November, rather than shipping the cameras out a few at a time.

 

100 a week for the next year is the "Old" Leica way of doing things. Not any more!

 

4. Finally, as Freidhelm says, Leica probably needs all the time until mid-September for: tweaking hardware, firmware and software; training the assemblers and ramping up production; familiarizing/training the sales reps; getting the presentation ready for Koln (studio product shots, brochure design, sample prints from the shots the beta photographers have done, etc.) and getting those 5,000 cameras built and stockpiled to ship.

 

U.S. sales reps will get hands-on training, with 'real' M8s, in - well, let's just say, well before Photokina begins.

 

I guess the short version of all that is - this is the biggest product introduction, from Leica's point of view, since the Leicaflex of 1964 or the M3 of 1954. They want it to be a show on the Steve Jobs scale, not just "Oh, by the way, here's our new digital rangefinder."

[johnbuckley]

I couldn't agree with Andy more. I hope they are taking an Apple-esque Macworld approach, where Photokina has the big announcement -- Digital M -- and all the other pieces that show catergoric improvement in Leica's offerings to the market.

 

Here's another marketing metaphor -- film studios pick a given weekend for when their films open, and then announce them, in essence playing chicken with other studios: you don't really want to have your new kids cartoon come out the same day my new Harry Potter releases, do you? Well, Leica's not in the same position, and no doubt, when they release 3 products, Canon will release 30. But the point is, Photokina is widely understood by the photography press as a crucial moment in the life of an historic brand. They (Leica) can and will milk it for all it's worth.

 

I work for prominent consumer marketing and software company. Things always take longer getting to the launch date than is planned. Andy's absolutely right about the Photokina deadline. Remember how when the D2 was released, we heard that Leica USA employees were having to work overtime because the camera arrived from Germany, but the packaging, etc. was late getting here from Asia? Things like this happen.

 

Finally, the mere fact that all of us are on this forum everyday for what I would bet is the same reason -- that magic moment when new, hard info is available about the M8 -- shows the inherent rightness of a strategy that has but 8 weeks left to be realized. JB

[Guest guy_mancuso]

The M8 will be announced to the press 2 weeks before Photokinia and available in October right after the show. These are the hard deadlines from all that i have been told. And also announcing several other things ready for release.

[marknorton]

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By common consent, they messed up the DMR launch, too much talk, too soon and the product was delayed while they worked on the firmware. You could say the same about the Pansonic L1 which seems to be an awfully long time coming.

 

I think Andy's analysis is spot-on; the lead time for hardware can be quite long so I expect it's been finalised for a while so now it's all about getting ready the launch this most important of new Leicas. There may well be a large number of cameras waiting for that Version 1.00 firmware load. I hope so!

[Bob Ross]

By common consent, they messed up the DMR launch, too much talk, too soon and the product was delayed while they worked on the firmware. You could say the same about the Pansonic L1 which seems to be an awfully long time coming.

 

I think Andy's analysis is spot-on; the lead time for hardware can be quite long so I expect it's been finalised for a while so now it's all about getting ready the launch this most important of new Leicas. There may well be a large number of cameras waiting for that Version 1.00 firmware load. I hope so!

Mark, I think there is another factor involved in the timing and that is Photokina itself. These Convention Events are big money in lots of areas and the photo shows compete for the #1 spot to draw visitors, press & participants who spend money locally. The show organizers probably are coordinating the drama and the tight lipped mfrs. just add to the festivities. Those who cooperate may get the prime booths and best press facilities as an incentive. This adds a reason for Leica to stay quiet and finish refining. They have let us know it is coming, as if to say, "that is all you need"....come to the show...Photokina....we'll show you more....bring your money....have a good time...

[marknorton]

I agree, especially with Photokina being every two years, it's the opportunity for Leica to set out their stall and of course they want to create as much PR noise as possible. You're also correct that the organisers want to stage manage the action as well.

 

These things are extremely expensive to do. I exhibit at a trade show at the NEC, which is the UK's equivalent of the Koeln Exhibitiion complex for a 2 day show every year. A bare stand around 5 * 3 metres costs £15000, add £10000 to pretty it up, people and logding costs, travel, advertising, PR and it ends up costing £40000 for 2 days.

 

When you sign up for these things, you get deluged from offers from other companies with their noses in the feeding trough, everything from putting your logo on the carrier bags to sponsoring break-out sessions where people mostly go for a free coffee and a danish, to targetted databases for your promotion.

 

I hate it. The benefits of a £40k spend are hard to judge, you have to do it because everyone else is.

 

What is most amazing of all is to be there the night before it opens - total chaos - but somehow it comes together; then 5 minutes after the show closes, people are tearing the place apart ready for the next show; the contract carpeting you were so careful to protect before the show becomes instant rubbish and is dumped in a skip/dumpster.

[ptomsu]

The M8 will be announced to the press 2 weeks before Photokinia and available in October right after the show. These are the hard deadlines from all that i have been told. And also announcing several other things ready for release.

 

Guy, what do you think are the other things? The Leica 4/3, some new lenses for M, another Dlux2?

[Guest guy_mancuso]

Peter your bad. I know one that was said is the booth at Photokinia is big. Look for a body with three lenses to go with it. I also heard a Digi 3 but that one is sketchy.

[etanguero]

PhotoKina has/will serve several functions for Leica:

 

1. It's a hard deadline outside Leica's control - which I'm sure was useful to Dr. Spichtig in inculcating a new "Git 'er done!" culture within the Leica organization, and establishing credibility with the investors that he (and Leica) CAN meet a deadline after years of "a day late and a dollar short" (the DMR, the R8 motor, etc.)

 

There's a 'Nonsequitur' cartoon titled "God's Editor" in which a disgruntled Creator is being admonished by an eyeshaded, ink-spattered boss. "Yes, I know how you like to work." says the editor, "but it doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be finished in 6 days". I think Dr. S. and Photokina have played the role of the editor for Leica.

 

2. PhotoKina will be the 'coming-out party' for the new, reorganized, refinanced, remanaged Leica GMBH. A lot of new stuff beside the M8 itself - the first elements of the "D" line of 4/3rds cameras, the new M superwide, likely a D-Lux 3, and probably some sports optics goodies (rumored - a full-scale amateur astonomical telescope?). Spoiling the "splash" by dribbling out bits and pieces over a couple of months is not smart marketing.

 

3. The moment the M8 becomes 'official' there is going to be huge demand (at least by Leica standards). I'll bet by Oct. 1 preorders worldwide will be in the 10,000 range. Again, from the standpoint of marketing, and of refurbishing Leica's reputation as a 'can-do' organization, it is more effective to make one BIG announcement and be able to ship 5,000 cameras the next week, and another 5,000 by the beginning of November, rather than shipping the cameras out a few at a time.

 

100 a week for the next year is the "Old" Leica way of doing things. Not any more!

 

4. Finally, as Freidhelm says, Leica probably needs all the time until mid-September for: tweaking hardware, firmware and software; training the assemblers and ramping up production; familiarizing/training the sales reps; getting the presentation ready for Koln (studio product shots, brochure design, sample prints from the shots the beta photographers have done, etc.) and getting those 5,000 cameras built and stockpiled to ship.

 

U.S. sales reps will get hands-on training, with 'real' M8s, in - well, let's just say, well before Photokina begins.

 

I guess the short version of all that is - this is the biggest product introduction, from Leica's point of view, since the Leicaflex of 1964 or the M3 of 1954. They want it to be a show on the Steve Jobs scale, not just "Oh, by the way, here's our new digital rangefinder."

 

Reading this ... trying to digest it ...

... but probably better just travel to Photokina in september and let myself impress with more than I'd/we'd exspectet!!!

 

- the Leica-version of the Lumix L1 (with all the Leica lenses for it!)

- perhaps a Digilux 3, maybe even part of the 4/3"-System (one lens construction serving more cameras!)

- perhaps a DMR v2

- why not even a R10

- but definitely a M8 / dM ... and we'll see with how much MPx at the end.

 

I'd guess the M8 be humming!!!

 

eT

[ptomsu]

PhotoKina has/will serve several functions for Leica:

 

1. It's a hard deadline outside Leica's control - which I'm sure was useful to Dr. Spichtig in inculcating a new "Git 'er done!" culture within the Leica organization, and establishing credibility with the investors that he (and Leica) CAN meet a deadline after years of "a day late and a dollar short" (the DMR, the R8 motor, etc.)

 

There's a 'Nonsequitur' cartoon titled "God's Editor" in which a disgruntled Creator is being admonished by an eyeshaded, ink-spattered boss. "Yes, I know how you like to work." says the editor, "but it doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be finished in 6 days". I think Dr. S. and Photokina have played the role of the editor for Leica.

 

2. PhotoKina will be the 'coming-out party' for the new, reorganized, refinanced, remanaged Leica GMBH. A lot of new stuff beside the M8 itself - the first elements of the "D" line of 4/3rds cameras, the new M superwide, likely a D-Lux 3, and probably some sports optics goodies (rumored - a full-scale amateur astonomical telescope?). Spoiling the "splash" by dribbling out bits and pieces over a couple of months is not smart marketing.

 

3. The moment the M8 becomes 'official' there is going to be huge demand (at least by Leica standards). I'll bet by Oct. 1 preorders worldwide will be in the 10,000 range. Again, from the standpoint of marketing, and of refurbishing Leica's reputation as a 'can-do' organization, it is more effective to make one BIG announcement and be able to ship 5,000 cameras the next week, and another 5,000 by the beginning of November, rather than shipping the cameras out a few at a time.

 

100 a week for the next year is the "Old" Leica way of doing things. Not any more!

 

4. Finally, as Freidhelm says, Leica probably needs all the time until mid-September for: tweaking hardware, firmware and software; training the assemblers and ramping up production; familiarizing/training the sales reps; getting the presentation ready for Koln (studio product shots, brochure design, sample prints from the shots the beta photographers have done, etc.) and getting those 5,000 cameras built and stockpiled to ship.

 

U.S. sales reps will get hands-on training, with 'real' M8s, in - well, let's just say, well before Photokina begins.

 

I guess the short version of all that is - this is the biggest product introduction, from Leica's point of view, since the Leicaflex of 1964 or the M3 of 1954. They want it to be a show on the Steve Jobs scale, not just "Oh, by the way, here's our new digital rangefinder."

 

Reading this and fully agreeing to this - I only hope it will become true asnd would love Leica to have this kind of Steve Jobs show at Photokina! But who should present? I think Dr. S is a good CEO, but not the sme presenter skills as Steve. Maybe they could hire Steve?

 

Actually not a bad idea to partner long term with someone like Aplle in order to be always first in support of digi cam models in SW like Aperture. But I know this is only wishful thinking.

[Bob Ross]

D-lux3 is likely, because the Panasonic Spanish site inadvertantly released information on the LZ-2 and the FZ-50

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[etanguero]

inadvertantly

:D :D

 

eT

[Bob Ross]

Hi Mark,

Those are amazing figures for show costs! It seems clear that Leica will be the Prima Ballerina with Panasonic & Oly 4/3rds supporting stars by association. Sigma has hinted at something new, but I haven't heard about Canon or Nikon. I did read somewhere that the floor plan layout for Photokina has been changed for easier access.

Bob

[marknorton]

Hi Mark,

Those are amazing figures for show costs! It seems clear that Leica will be the Prima Ballerina with Panasonic & Oly 4/3rds supporting stars by association. Sigma has hinted at something new, but I haven't heard about Canon or Nikon. I did read somewhere that the floor plan layout for Photokina has been changed for easier access.

Bob

 

From the stand information, it looks like Leica are taking more than one stand, maybe to keep Sport Optics (lets not forget, their biggest business segment right now - I've just bought a pair of Duovids) separate.

 

My guess is that Photokina in general and the launch of the M8 in particular is big money.

[Goldie]

etanguero that's a very long and wishful list for Photokina.

 

From what facts,gossip and asides I have heard, Leica will present the M8 and a 15mm lens for the M8. The latter maintaining the focal length gamut of the analogue M on the digital M's cropped sensor. Personally I would have thought these 2 in-house designed and manufactured products would be enough to keep Leica very busy and if they did it, 2006 would count as a gold star year!

As far as out sourced products are concerned a D-Lux 3 will be presented and a C-Lux 2

( the C-Lux 1 is apparently expected to time out in October). If this is true then it would appear that Leica are getting savvy at maintaining a 'modern' presence at the consumer end of their range.

With the 4/3 system I think we will see the variable focal length lens, already announced go into dealerships perhaps with another hitherto unseen lens. The Panasonic body is just about to ship and they'll want their partner marching with them, surely. As for the Digilux 3 (Leica's own 4/3 body) I would be very surprised to see it this year.

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[ptomsu]

etanguero that's a very long and wishful list for Photokina.

 

From what facts,gossip and asides I have heard, Leica will present the M8 and a 15mm lens for the M8. The latter maintaining the focal length gamut of the analogue M on the digital M's cropped sensor. Personally I would have thought these 2 in-house designed and manufactured products would be enough to keep Leica very busy and if they did it, 2006 would count as a gold star year!

As far as out sourced products are concerned a D-Lux 3 will be presented and a C-Lux 2

( the C-Lux 1 is apparently expected to time out in October). If this is true then it would appear that Leica are getting savvy at maintaining a 'modern' presence at the consumer end of their range.

With the 4/3 system I think we will see the variable focal length lens, already announced go into dealerships perhaps with another hitherto unseen lens. The Panasonic body is just about to ship and they'll want their partner marching with them, surely. As for the Digilux 3 (Leica's own 4/3 body) I would be very surprised to see it this year.

 

I have similar thoughts about that.

[etanguero]

let's see wether the Digilux 3 will be a real follow up of the Digilux 2 or "only" the leica branded pana lumix L1. wether there will be a SLR and a nonSLR 4/3"-cam.

 

photokina will tell!

eT