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jaapv

Rumour and Ratio

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The question was "Is it wise to pre-order?" And, the way Jaap constructed the thread, I think, the answer presumably should derive from whether you think the pluses overrule the minuses. That equation works, it seems to me, only if you're already determined to buy an M9, no matter what. But, I think a majority of the potential customer base has other ratios in mind.

 

For those that a) don't have insider information;

aren't early adopters, especially given past reliability issues with Leica; c) care a wee bit about the small details...what are the real specs?...what is the real price?; what will the camera do, if anything, to improve their work?...what would be the trade value of currently owned equipment?; and, d) are currently able to take pictures with another M....i.e., most of us....the jury is still out, and there's not a great rush.

 

(Oh, and I guess I could add to the above list those that don't have a stash of money, burning a hole in their pocket, that was reserved for an R10:)).

 

Jeff

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You may even gain something eventually for a pre-ordered 1st batch M9 ...

 

Recall the sweet 30% M-Lenses Discount =)

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Where's Seal when we need him?

 

Seal was in Madrid for a concert a few days ago. I was told he was in Fotocasión, the larger photo shop here, in Madrid. I don't know if Seal knows something, but the owner of Fotocasión thinks the ff M9 will be presented in September... I think he is wrong.

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The question was "Is it wise to pre-order?" And, the way Jaap constructed the thread, I think, the answer presumably should derive from whether you think the pluses overrule the minuses. That equation works, it seems to me, only if you're already determined to buy an M9, no matter what. But, I think a majority of the potential customer base has other ratios in mind.

 

For those that a) don't have insider information;

aren't early adopters, especially given past reliability issues with Leica; c) care a wee bit about the small details...what are the real specs?...what is the real price?; what will the camera do, if anything, to improve their work?...what would be the trade value of currently owned equipment?; and, d) are currently able to take pictures with another M....i.e., most of us....the jury is still out, and there's not a great rush.

 

(Oh, and I guess I could add to the above list those that don't have a stash of money, burning a hole in their pocket, that was reserved for an R10:)).

 

Jeff

A pre-order is just a spot on a list, not a commitment to buy.

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John pointed out there would be legal consequences by leaving the M9 out of the recent financial statement.

 

 

No offense to John, but I just can't figure out where this idea comes from. I've written about publicly-traded companies (and SEC regulations) for more than a dozen years. And I have never seen an issue like this come up.

It's not unusual for a company to make a big announcement (new initiatives, products, layoffs, etc) immediately after announcing quarterly or annual financial results. The primary purpose of an earnings report is to tell investors what happened, not what's going to happen.

Of course they'll toss in some cautious forecasting and guidance for the future. But I don't know of any securities laws that would essentially force a company to reveal a new product before it's ready to go. At least not in the U.S.

If I'm missing something here, I'd love to know what it is just for my own education.

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You would have to ask him yourself, but I think he was referring to inside stock trading.

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I forgot to mention the M9 profile in C4.8.2 btw.

 

Except if you look at the profile in an analysis program, you soon find out it is the exact same profile used for the M8 without the IR filter. Same creation date, and exact same gamut right down to the large excursion into red (IR). What's the chance the M9 will have the same sensor with the same IR problem? What are the odds it was created on the same day at exactly the same time as the M8 profile down to the second? In reality, this is just a placeholder and not a real profile for an M9.

 

While the fact the M9 appears as a choice in a software menu certainly is interesting - it is in no way proof that an M9 exists. Also, a long time friend (30 years) who has been a Leica representative in the US for longer than that has had no information provided by Leica (no NDA, no pre-introduction information, etc.) on an M9. In fact, he sent the link for the French dealer taking pre-orders to Leica USA and asked them what was going on.

 

So, you have part of the world convinced that there is an M9 and taking pre-orders - and the other part with no information on it at all.

Edited by buckhorn_cortez

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A pre-order is just a spot on a list, not a commitment to buy.

 

Obviously. My points still apply. As I recall, you weren't prepared to get on any such list until the R10 cancelled.

Jeff

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Well, you summarized it perfectly. Convinced? I'm not even convinced myself - I only reported the rumours - as rumours. Make of it what you want. In a pre-order there is no money involved, btw.

Edited by jaapv

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In fact, he sent the link for the French dealer taking pre-orders to Leica USA and asked them what was going on.

 

So, you have part of the world convinced that there is an M9 and taking money for pre-orders - and the other part with no information on it at all.

 

Well, there's one very obvious this that could be going on. Or not as the case may be.

 

Are dealers taking money for pre-orders? Could you point us in the direction of those that are?

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Obviously. My points still apply. As I recall, you weren't prepared to get on any such list until the R10 cancelled.

Jeff

That is true. I can only spend my money once, and could not make up my mind - until Leica made it up for me.

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You would have to ask him yourself, but I think he was referring to inside stock trading.

 

Well, if that's the case, I can say with absolute confidence that there is nothing to it. Leaving it on your list simply spreads a little more misinformation.

 

The only way insider trading would come into play is if Leica officials (or their friends, family members, etc) started buying stock just before a new product was announced to the public.They could be accused of taking advantage of their insider information.

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Well, you summarized it perfectly. Convinced? I'm not even convinced myself - I only reported the rumours - as rumours. make of it what you want. In a pre/order there is no money involved, btw.

 

Why would you take a pre-order for a non-existent product - with or without money? The paper work involved (work with no payback), not to mention the hit to dealer reputation doesn't make much sense unless it's a way to do a hidden marketing survey to sample the potential market.

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That is true. I can only spend my money once, and could not make up my mind - until Leica made it up for me.

 

And, that is just my point, and the basis for my post. Most people don't have money set aside and committed to a Leica purchase within a certain timeframe. They might consider a purchase if and when the case is compelling once a new product comes out, but otherwise are happy to not think about having to spend more money on anything. So, the pluses and minuses you list...for those people...are not relevant, for now anyway.

Jeff

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Well, there's one very obvious this that could be going on. Or not as the case may be.

 

Are dealers taking money for pre-orders? Could you point us in the direction of those that are?

 

Nope sure can't. My bad for that assumption. Are you interested in putting down a deposit to make sure you get one? However, US dealers taking pre-orders for the S2 are taking deposits for the pre-order. The money is refundable if you cancel the order prior to the dealer placing the order - the point being, if it's a real product, a lot of dealers require a deposit to make the order real.

Edited by buckhorn_cortez

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When I first heard of all these rumors about a full-frame M9 being available in September, I didn't believe any of it, given the well-known technological difficulties and what Stefan Daniel had said at the forum meeting. I also thought that the 2009-09-09 date, while kind of nice, would not really be "Leica-like" (too "clever" compared to their usual modest style of advertising). And reading from someone I don't know personally that some unnamed dealer confirmed the rumors doesn't do much to increase credibility for me. Now I'm going to tell you the same kind of story, though...

 

I myself am not very interesting for a Leica dealer because almost all the red dot stuff I ever bought I bought used. However, a friend of mine - an amateur who has a lot more money available than me - recently became "hooked" on Leica and in the last 18 months or so bought an M8, an M7, and a lot of lenses, including both the old and the new Noctilux. (Yes, it's crazy, I know.) He's even thinking about buying an S2.

 

Obviously, he's the kind of guy dealers love. Whenever he's at the shop, they of course know his name, chat with him, and generally treat him like royalty. He doesn't read this forum, but I told him about the M9 rumors a few days ago. To my surprise he then told me (confidentially...) that his dealer had told him (confidentially...) that there will be a full-frame M9 on September 9. (Except for "full-frame" no other technical specs were mentioned, by the way.) Well, I suddenly think that it is really possible we'll see such a camera in September...

 

And of course if you were skeptical before, what I'm saying here won't make a difference for you, right? It's just another story from someone you don't know (not to mention that it's my first posting here although I've been lurking for a while) and, again, I won't name the dealer. (It's one many here know, in a big city. I don't think their staff will feed their customers with Internet rumors.) I'm sorry, but I don't want to betray my friend's trust.

 

Anyway, 5500 Euros or whatever the price will be is a lot of money for me, but if it's an M9 which isn't bigger than the M8 with a full-frame sensor, better high-ISO behaviour, and maybe a couple of "lesser" improvements, I'll seriously consider buying it!

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Well, if that's the case, I can say with absolute confidence that there is nothing to it. Leaving it on your list simply spreads a little more misinformation.

 

The only way insider trading would come into play is if Leica officials (or their friends, family members, etc) started buying stock just before a new product was announced to the public.They could be accused of taking advantage of their insider information.

Exactly my answer to John. Thanks for the confirmation.

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Why would you take a pre-order for a non-existent product - with or without money? The paper work involved (work with no payback), not to mention the hit to dealer reputation doesn't make much sense unless it's a way to do a hidden marketing survey to sample the potential market.

So why would a very reputable dealer take such an order - or even approach their "good"customers on the subject?

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