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Worrisome Lumix S failure


nicci78

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Have you seen the almost flat sales of Panasonic full frame mirrorless in Japan ? 
It is very worrying, when Sigma sold far more fp than the whole Lumix S line up....

I guess that huge, expensive body with subpar DFD contrast AF system were not attractive at all. 
 

S5 is a step to the right decision. But they need hybrid Phase+Contrast AF system. Otherwise the whole L-mount alliance will be out of business soon. 

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Edited by nicci78
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1 hour ago, nicci78 said:

S5 is a step to the right decision. But they need hybrid Phase+Contrast AF system. Otherwise the whole L-mount alliance will be out of business soon. 

 

Is this from your marketing research division, or is it just wild speculation based on your personal feelings? Because it sounds a lot more like the latter than the former. Certainly Leica is not competing for market share. I don't get the sense that Panasonic and Sigma are trying to corner the market either. These are prestige lines within the companies...designed for the higher end and showing off their technology. The Canon, Sony and Nikon all contain cameras more clearly directed at the masses. I am not trying to argue that the S line is selling like mad, but hopefully they are doing well enough to continue to sell them sustainably. I think it is unlikely that anyone outside of Panasonic or Sigma are likely to be able to answer that.

Edited by Stuart Richardson
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In France Panasonic is currently selling brand new S1R + 24-105 kit at 2500€ only. 
Actually the whole Lumix S line up has been constantly on discount since day one. 
They even offered six months ago a free Lumix S 50mm f/1.4 for any S1R purchase. 
Is it the sign of a solid performer ? 
It is commercial failure in all its glory. 

Read or watch any review not made by Panasonic ambassador. You will get DFD is crap and Canon Dual Pixel AF  or Sony phase AF are awesome  

It is certainly affecting sales, whatever we may think about DFD. Perception is everything it can make success or break it. 

And now this sales chart of BCN about full frame mirrorless. Close to 0% since the beginning is not a good sign. Only the release of S5 lift the bar to 5% in September 2020. But it is still so far away of #3 Nikon 15% #2 Canon 35% and #1 Sony 44%

 

Edited by nicci78
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1 hour ago, nicci78 said:

In France Panasonic is currently selling brand new S1R + 24-105 kit at 2500€ only. 
Actually the whole Lumix S line up has been constantly on discount since day one. 
They even offered six months ago a free Lumix S 50mm f/1.4 for any S1R purchase. 
Is it the sign of a solid performer ? 
It is commercial failure in all its glory. 

Read or watch any review not made by Panasonic ambassador. You will get DFD is crap and Canon Dual Pixel AF  or Sony phase AF are awesome  

It is certainly affecting sales, whatever we may think about DFD. Perception is everything it can make success or break it. 

And now this sales chart of BCN about full frame mirrorless. Close to 0% since the beginning is not a good sign. Only the release of S5 lift the bar to 5% in September 2020. But it is still so far away of #3 Nikon 15% #2 Canon 35% and #1 Sony 44%

 

Blue: While this may be so, so were the Nikon Z6 / Z7. It's simply because the manufacturers try to encourage prospective purchasers to buy a product just entering the market.

And in contrast...

Yellow: While there may be a comment in various reviews of the S1 / S1R that DFD is not as effective in certain situations as phase-difference AF (if that's that you're referring to), it is pure, inaccurate, hyperbole to say 'DFD is crap'. It isn't. It works. Don't overlook the fact that the S5's AF has been noted as a significant improvement over that on the S1 / S1R but the latter will be getting a firmware update before the end of the year to bring their AF into line.

Finally, don't forget, too, that while AF is important, it's not the only factor which influences the choice of the propsectoive purchaser. For example, the build quality of the S1 / S1R is typically reviewed as being robust, and this may be far more important for, for example, the backpacking landscape photographer.

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Panasonic larger models don’t sell as they are big and heavy in comparison to other full frame mirrorless that are much smaller and lighter.  People don’t buy cameras because of impressive specification on paper but because of everyday utility. Specially in Japan the preference is for compact models, reason why Pentax and until recently Olympus survive.

i came across S1R and S1 with initial lenses that included 50mm f1.4 model during pre release promotion and the sales guy was very keen to convince me to take the bait, in comparison the SL601 I had at the time felt like a small camera.  I didn’t take bait, chose Z7 instead.

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2 hours ago, Stuart Richardson said:

Is this from your marketing research division, or is it just wild speculation based on your personal feelings? Because it sounds a lot more like the latter than the former. Certainly Leica is not competing for market share. I don't get the sense that Panasonic and Sigma are trying to corner the market either. These are prestige lines within the companies...designed for the higher end and showing off their technology. The Canon, Sony and Nikon all contain cameras more clearly directed at the masses. I am not trying to argue that the S line is selling like mad, but hopefully they are doing well enough to continue to sell them sustainably. I think it is unlikely that anyone outside of Panasonic or Sigma are likely to be able to answer that.

I believe Nicci may be correct. Panasonic management have, I believe, previously confirmed that sales of the S-series are way below expectations.

Both Leica and Pansonic need volume. Producing just for a tiny niche is not a viable business model. I remember the discussion with Stefan Daniel here on the forum, when he was asked why Leica discontinued the 24mm lenses. His reply was we did not decide this, you the buyers, did. The luxury 1.4/24mm did not sell (or just a few thousand) so hardly the development costs were recouperated. 

 

Edited by Ivar B
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2 minutes ago, Jeff S said:

Dan Wells just wrote an article for LuLa that includes discussion on this topic.  He worries about the demise of camera gear for Panasonic, which he says would ruin the L alliance.

Jeff

Could you say where?

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Panasonic may well be having trouble, but I stand by my questioning of "they need a hybrid phase/contrast detect AF system. Otherwise the whole L mount alliance will be out of business soon". I think that is wild speculation. At the very least, Leica is not going to go anywhere with the L mount, so trying to say that the whole thing is going to collapse because Panasonic and Sigma have a smaller market share than the other makers in Japan seems to me to be unfounded and unproductive fear mongering.

Edited by Stuart Richardson
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3 hours ago, nicci78 said:

Read or watch any review not made by Panasonic ambassador. You will get DFD is crap and Canon Dual Pixel AF  or Sony phase AF are awesome

A lot of the reviews that I have read say that DFD (in the S1 trio) is surprisingly good for stills, and better than most of the competition for video. I guess it depends on the reviewer. I tend to follow those that spend significant time with a camera before passing judgment, and those who I think are talented photographers (or videographers).

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45 minutes ago, Stuart Richardson said:

Panasonic may well be having trouble, but I stand by my questioning of "they need a hybrid phase/contrast detect AF system. Otherwise the whole L mount alliance will be out of business soon". I think that is wild speculation. At the very least, Leica is not going to go anywhere with the L mount, so trying to say that the whole thing is going to collapse because Panasonic and Sigma have a smaller market share than the other makers in Japan seems to me to be unfounded and unproductive fear mongering.

They are not going to give up on this system any time soon. Far too much is invested in it but perhaps more product development is needed. If the autofocus system is to blame for poor sales, I have no idea. The S1R serves me very well, although I hear that some nature photographers photographing flying birds and what have you, may be better served by Sony. I would expect that there is careful deliberation behind the choice the L-alliance made. I am surprised that there a no new APS-C cameras with L-mount. Perhaps Panasonic fears for the future of the M43 system if they did, and I am sure that Sigma would love to sell some more moderately priced very good lenses. 

Edited by Ivar B
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Please forget about DFD. 
You have to admit that Panasonic did something wrong to stick to 0% market share until S5 released, making it up to a mere 5%. 

Japan is the country where mirrorless beats DSLR long time ago. 
So it is a mature market for full frame mirrorless. 
But one thing is sure. They to do not want to buy any Lumix S.

What’s wrong ? I think multiple things : huge size, heavy weight, high price, limited lens selection at the beginning, DFD AF system, bad marketing, poor sales force. Heavy competition. 

whatever it is. They need to wake up fast or face extinction. Because we are taking about close to nil market share ! 
 

Edited by nicci78
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10 hours ago, nicci78 said:

Have you seen the almost flat sales of Panasonic full frame mirrorless in Japan ? 
It is very worrying, when Sigma sold far more fp than the whole Lumix S line up....

I guess that huge, expensive body with subpar DFD contrast AF system were not attractive at all. 
 

S5 is a step to the right decision. But they need hybrid Phase+Contrast AF system. Otherwise the whole L-mount alliance will be out of business soon. 

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Check out these camera sales articles:

https://www.stevehuffphoto.com/2020/08/02/camera-sales-are-in-the-crapper/

https://www.statista.com/chart/5782/digital-camera-shipments/

 

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Bad economic times are not totally a bad thing.

In the 1970's there were a couple of recessions and many new products were released.  Bad economic times forces innovation so new product exists to sell and displace old owned products.  So we are seeing some great innovations despite trying economic times. 

As sensors become so good that you do not need to buy a new camera to get a higher quality/speed sensor - sales will lower.  So companies must look for other innovation features to cause new sales. 

It is well known economically (I have been a stock chartist spending much time on financial websites) that the 35% corporate tax rate, that the USA used to have, causes lower wages and thus less free income to buy cameras.  This has been changed to a lower corporate tax rate 21% in the USA (according to the below website, accurate?).  

The USA used to represent 1/2 the sales for many international corporations so under the old tax rate effect, that lasts for years afterward (lingers), we should expect falls in sales.  Add to this the Covid effect lowering sales and oops much lower sales.  But gradually over time the new lower USA corporate and personal tax rates will cause more camera sales internationally.  

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-tax-rate

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18 hours ago, Stuart Richardson said:

 I don't get the sense that Panasonic and Sigma are trying to corner the market either. 

Quite the opposite! Panasonic manager Yamane: “We hope L-mount could be the standard format for video shooting"

https://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2020/08/20/panasonic-interview-covid-development-full-frame-micro-four-thirds

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Leica already IS one of the standards for cine/video shooting - in lenses. It wouldn't be surprising if they tried to leverage that reputation to launch video bodies as well, even if it's in a different (viz. low end) segment of the video/cine market. 

Edited by LocalHero1953
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3 minutes ago, LocalHero1953 said:

Leica already IS one of the standards for cine/video shooting - in lenses. It wouldn't be surprising if they tried to leverage that reputation to launch video bodies as well, even if it's in a different (viz. low end) segment of the video/cine market. 

That is a totally different market. High end video camera market is dominated by Arri and Red: 

https://ymcinema.com/2019/06/17/red-arri-and-others-cinema-cameras-market-overview/

If with "low end" you mean mirrorless for ie weddings, vloggers, Youtube then you need Phase Detect AF, because AF-C with DFD simply won't cut it.

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Every vlogger on the planet complained about crappy DFD since GH5 released in early 2017. 
What did Panasonic ? More DFD for its full frame line up ? What the Youtube guys are saying ? It is still crap for video. 
 

YouTube killed Panasonic. They were beloved for their awesome video capabilities. But now video guys can’t stand DFD. So what happened ? They bought Canon awesome Dual Pixel AF stuff or Sony’s excellent AF system. 
So now with near 0% market. It is kind of game over for Panasonic. You were too stubborn about DFD. Now you are going to pay the ultimate price. 
 

The worst part for us is that Panasonic may drag Leica with them. 
Leica is really not lucky with its partnership :
First Huawei is just a walking dead company, hit by Trump zombie virus.    
Second the partnership with Insta360 is not that good. GoPro still rule the action cam scene.   
Third Panasonic may exit the camera business. 

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