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Where will M9 Prices go?


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If Leica is out of sensors now, what is the value of an M9 now? Presumably it will be different for M9s with 2nd generation sensors, M9s with 1st generation sensors (which are not experiencing corrosion), and M9s that have bad sensors.  I'm seeing none for sale at B&H, KEH, and Tamarkin but the "out of stock" price at KEH is pretty depressed. It's still on eBay but prices are all over the price. I have my Leicas insured, I wonder if I should reduce the value of my M9 (2nd gen has had the sensor replaced). 

What do you think? Will they go down due to repairability or up due to rarity (for the 2nd gens)? And will this have any impact on other Ms like the 240 and M10 since we know there is an effective limit on how long they will likely be repairable?

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They wont be next to nothing for long time. Look at M8 prices. Couple of years ago they were bellow 1K USD. But has grown. Lovely cameras. By now I'm not sure which one is better M8 or M9.

I don't think Leica Camera AG has M8 sensors, either. 

M9 without latest sensor is ticking bomb and I don't think it is worth of more than used M8.

M9 with crapped out sensor is not the case of selling camera, it is "for parts". Price is adjusted accordingly.  Something like 600 USD.

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Could probably go two ways for bodies fitted with a working second version sensor;

1. Go down in price because any buyer can probably not repair it if the sensors crack, and risk getting an expensive paper weight.

2. Go up in price. As more and more M9 fails, the remaining working units will be considered more rare, and therefore collectable items.

Difficult to say.

One thing is for sure; any remaining spare stock of working 2nd gen sensors (outside of Leica); will skyrocket in price!

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That's actually hard to say. The M9 has been superseded by three generations (the -240, the -10, and the -10R). I suspect that its pricing is largely dependent on the perception of CCD magic - since every other functional aspect has been vastly improved. Leica pricing in general is completely irrational - and I suspect it gets a little lift every time the price of a new one goes up a grand. Two grand for a decade-old body doesn't seem like so much when a new one is $8.5k.

I would predict a slow decline from here on out.

Dante

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  • 2 weeks later...

I would note that there are other ways for the M9 CCD sensor (I or II) to fail, beyond the cover glass alone. And thus a Monochrom conversion or other glass replacement is no guarantee of any particular longevity.

At this point, commercial sellers like KEH cannot offer M9s except "as-is" - it is impossible to replace a faulty sensor, whether it fails 1 day after the purchase, or 3000 days. And no matter how it fails. And thus they cannot offer even a 14-day-return window. Which explains their "depressing" values even below Ko.Fe.'s "parts" value above. (And I will bet they are all "out of stock" because they will offer no more than half the "depressing" price to acquire them - they're a liability).

Nor can service people touch them for other problems, without a disclaimer that they are not responsible if the sensor fails in any way.

Which pretty much means - how much of a gambler are you? What odds are realistic to you? What is your risk tolerance?

I would guess that a camera DOCUMENTED with the new sensor installed less than 2 years ago would command the highest price. And that would be what people would pay for an unrepairable sensor with a median life expectancy of 6 more years (some longer, some shorter - but who knows which?)

Sorry to be hard-nosed about this, since the M9 was a beautiful classic that won me a fair number of national awards. But now one could plummet to paperweight value within 5 frames. And that's the reality.

From a couple of nearby threads:

 

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I'd be interested know what Leica will do with all the M9/P/M bodies that get traded in for the upgrade offer. I think I read a thread here recently from someone who had been given an M9 body by his Leica dealer for free.   Can't believe they will end up in a scrap pile somewhere.

My M9P black body, the finish of which I much prefer to the newer black M10's (I know that is really of no consequence but), is showing a couple of haloed sensor corrosion spots that I should have acted upon earlier, but foolishly didn't.  The camera is still totally useable but I made the decision to trade up for an M10R, as there is a three month waiting list on this option I suppose I have time to change my mind but my order is placed.  I lost my M10 to the river earlier in the year, when my insurance company settled I had decided wait for a while anyway, but I'm not happy losing the M9P.  

I am aware of the two other options now regarding sensor replacement, but would like to see some results.  The cover glass thickness and its affect on lens calibration bothers me somewhat, or at least I don't understand the implications.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Boojay said:

 

.  The camera is still totally useable but I made the decision to trade up for an M10R, as there is a three month waiting list on this option I suppose I have time to change my mind but my order is placed. 

That surprises me. Are you saying there is a three month wait for an upgrade - when today I could put an M10-R in my basket at a few dealers where we both live, here in the UK? Maybe a blessing in disguise; during that time you may find it feasible to repair the sensor in your M9-P..   ..or convert it into a Monochrom.   By the way, I agree with you about the M9-P black paint finish - wonderful to look at and to hold!

 

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1 hour ago, Denys said:

That surprises me. Are you saying there is a three month wait for an upgrade - when today I could put an M10-R in my basket at a few dealers where we both live, here in the UK? Maybe a blessing in disguise; during that time you may find it feasible to repair the sensor in your M9-P..   ..or convert it into a Monochrom.   By the way, I agree with you about the M9-P black paint finish - wonderful to look at and to hold!

 

Yes, I approached Leica Mayfair several weeks ago and they checked my sensor, then placed an order for me.   Leica state on the upgrade options that if you choose M10R, then you can expect a three month wait, doesn't seem to be the same wait for any of the other trade in options.    Annoying I know, however I don't need to send in the M9P until they have a camera there for me or make any payment until then.   But, I am choosing to treat it as time to see what happens elsewhere.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Boojay said:

Yes, I approached Leica Mayfair several weeks ago and they checked my sensor, then placed an order for me.   Leica state on the upgrade options that if you choose M10R, then you can expect a three month wait, doesn't seem to be the same wait for any of the other trade in options.    Annoying I know, however I don't need to send in the M9P until they have a camera there for me or make any payment until then.   But, I am choosing to treat it as time to see what happens elsewhere.  

 

 

How strange! Perhaps Leica is waiting to see if your name appears on ‘the naughty list’ before deciding whether you deserve a present. Also - perhaps - Leica could let you borrow a camera while you are waiting..  ..for, say, three months?

As you say, the time should give you a chance to see how successful the M9-P sensor repair options are. What’s meant to be, and all that!  📸👍

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22 minutes ago, Denys said:

How strange! Perhaps Leica is waiting to see if your name appears on ‘the naughty list’ before deciding whether you deserve a present. Also - perhaps - Leica could let you borrow a camera while you are waiting..  ..for, say, three months?

As you say, the time should give you a chance to see how successful the M9-P sensor repair options are. What’s meant to be, and all that!  📸👍

 Considering how many of my hard earned pounds they have in their coffers I definitely shouldn't be on the "naughty step" 😊, not a worry really, I have other options available.

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25 minutes ago, Boojay said:

 Considering how many of my hard earned pounds they have in their coffers I definitely shouldn't be on the "naughty step" 😊, not a worry really, I have other options available.

Fair point..  ..as long you resolve to continue to be good for the rest of the year (and we’re talking 40mp of resolution, don’t forget)..  😀

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1 hour ago, Denys said:

How strange! Perhaps Leica is waiting to see if your name appears on ‘the naughty list’ before deciding whether you deserve a present. Also - perhaps - Leica could let you borrow a camera while you are waiting..  ..for, say, three months?

As you say, the time should give you a chance to see how successful the M9-P sensor repair options are. What’s meant to be, and all that!  📸👍

I suspect that they have reserved most of the bodies for retailers and have only a select number set aside for the upgrade program.  I suspect they are allowing the upgrade to happen at cost, so they can't afford to endanger their sales stock to fulfill the orders, hence the delay.

 

Jeremy

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Leica fills camera orders in the order they are received. Even with M10-Rs being delivered to dealers, there are likely hundreds on back-order. And a "new order" joining the list now (and that includes a request today for the upgrade offer) will have to wait until the earlier orders have been fulfilled.

Older (even by a few months) camera types likely don't have as many (if any) outstanding orders for Leica to fulfill.

At peak production, Leica produces about 100 cameras per day. Less (maybe 60 per day) during production ramp-up of a new product like the M10-R. If they are holding world-wide orders for 6000 M10-Rs right now, it will take perhaps 60-90 days to produce a camera ordered today.

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5 minutes ago, adan said:

Leica fills camera orders in the order they are received. Even with M10-Rs being delivered to dealers, there are likely hundreds on back-order. And a "new order" joining the list now (and that includes a request today for the upgrade offer) will have to wait until the earlier orders have been fulfilled.

Older (even by a few months) camera types likely don't have as many (if any) outstanding orders for Leica to fulfill.

At peak production, Leica produces about 100 cameras per day. Less (maybe 60 per day) during production ramp-up of a new product like the M10-R. If they are holding world-wide orders for 6000 M10-Rs right now, it will take perhaps 60-90 days to produce a camera ordered today.

Yes, pretty much as I expected.  I think the time quoted was just a reflection of the state of play regarding delivery/production/queued orders.. not a problem, just maybe I will be able to wrap it up for Christmas😋.

 

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Back to the original question, I have seen used M9 selling on specialized forums for less than 2000 EUR (and not selling fast). And those had had their sensor replace recently. I doubt you could get much more than 1000 EUR for a M9 with original sensor - unless the buyer is uninformed about the whole M9 sensor mess...

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