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Atriya

Should I sell my Q now or when the Q3 is out: money-related question

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My question is not about technical/feature differences between the Q and Q2, but simply about economics.

I bought a (new) Q in 2019, when the Q2 was already out. Upgrading to the Q2 now, in 2020, is optional for me, but I know I'll definitely upgrade to a Q3 when it's out in, say, 2024.

The selling prices for a used Q have already fallen to around $2500. What price am I likely to get, if I sell my Q in 2024 with the Q3 already on the market?

If that price is really low, say $1500 or lower, it may make more financial sense to sell the Q right now and get a Q2, and then sell the Q2 when the Q3 is out. As a bonus I get to use the Q2 instead of the Q for ~3 years.

(Note: Selling the Q or Q2 before I can buy the Q3 is not an option for me, since this is my only full frame camera, and I don't want to go for months without it. Also, I don't buy used cameras myself; just a personal preference.)

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Let me get my crystal ball. Woops- a bit foggy-needs service. ;)
I would suggest that you cross that bridge when you get to it.

Reading your post it appears to me that you are upgrading for upgrade's sake alone. What is wrong with your Q that compels you to contemplate spending a not inconsiderable amount of money on a camera that is no more than an evil glint in the eye of Dr. Kaufmann, assuming that it will come at all?
For all you know it may not offer anything that improves your photography but will only satisfy your urge for something new and shiny...

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Ahh . . . the perpetual tech upgrade train to which we are all enslaved!  And don't forget the Q4 and Q5 . . . . 

I suspect each of us have different strategies for engagement with the perpetual process (whether it be with cameras, computers, phones, cars or vacuum cleaners) . . . in part, guided by calculations over the long run, in part guided by our own individual versions of neurosis and in part guided by the je-ne-sais-quoi factor.

I think we each just need the best strategy that suits each of us.

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Posted (edited)

These responses were unexpected.

I asked a simple question about depreciation. One does not need a "crystal ball" to estimate how much your Toyota Camry will likely be worth in 5 years. There are charts and graphs and statistics. I just felt that people who have bought and sold Leica cameras for decades might have a feel for how fast the Q might depreciate.

Also, it is obvious that upgrading my Q to any other camera will not by itself improve my photography. That is obviously not the reason I choose to upgrade my photography gear.

 

Edited by Atriya

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Take a step back and think about it... Upgrading to the newest version of a camera, or any other piece of tech is never the most cost effective way forward.

You are much better keeping your current Q for as long as possible as the depreciation curve has already flattened out. If you upgrade now, in 4 years your then current Q2 will be worth roughly what your current Q is worth now...

You always lose most of your money the moment you buy something new.

That being said. You and only you have to now work out if that additional loss is worth it for the better camera. Will it either get you better photographs or make you enjoy your hobby more?

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4 hours ago, Atriya said:

Also, it is obvious that upgrading my Q to any other camera will not by itself improve my photography.

So why upgrade at all? The only reasons for a new camera to make sense can be that it adds something to your (enjoyment of) photography or that the present camera is falling to pieces. Which, with the Q, might be an exceedingly long time. By which time its value will probably have dropped to near-zero.

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4 hours ago, Atriya said:

I asked a simple question about depreciation. One does not need a "crystal ball" to estimate how much your Toyota Camry will likely be worth in 5 years. There are charts and graphs and statistics. I just felt that people who have bought and sold Leica cameras for decades might have a feel for how fast the Q might depreciate.

 

It is not possible to provide what you are looking for. I am glad that you can predict the value of a Toyota Camry five years from now, because I could certainly not do this. The only sure way of predicting a price is to look at the current market, but that will only tell you what the current price might be. What way any market will go in the future nobody can accurately tell, particularly in a world where 'new normals' are being established by the day. You are looking at an item where the price will certainly depreciate, but by how much nobody here can tell. The market I am most familiar with is the one for vintage film Leicas, which sometimes shows appreciation in values for certain models and rarely shows any depreciation. This is completely different to the market for second hand digital cameras. In the digital market there is 'planned obsolescence', whereas in the vintage market items are 'beyond obsolescence'. There is a website called Collectiblend which allows collectors to track the values for all makes and types of collector cameras and also shows curves giving historic movements. I use this when competing at auctions to give me a rough approximation of value of an item. I am not a dealer and I don't buy Leicas for resale. Indeed, I have never sold a Leica, but I have traded in other makes. This is all outside the digital camera market. Personally, I regard digital cameras as tools and their value lies there. You could address this issue from that perspective, such as asking whether your Q is an adequate tool for your needs right now. As for the future, well you can track that as it evolves from online sales by dealers and on eBay.

William

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1 hour ago, jaapv said:

So why upgrade at all? The only reasons for a new camera to make sense can be that it adds something to your (enjoyment of) photography or that the present camera is falling to pieces. Which, with the Q, might be an exceedingly long time. By which time its value will probably have dropped to near-zero.

The good thing with the Q, is that is has no major flaws or quirks like an M8 say. So its value, being an enclosed sensor and popular 28mm lens will always be worth something. I think it'll still sell for £1000 in ten years time

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Well even the Digilux2 holds its value better than the Panasonic equivalent and M8 still holds a reasonable value. 

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Just like stocks. You never lose anything until you sell it 

So keep the Q forever. For never ending greatness. 

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It’s all gas...gear acquisition syndrome...I know coz I got it bad !!!

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Atriya said:

These responses were unexpected.

 

 

Stick around, you'll get used to it.

Or, ask a silly question........The forum rules do not allow discussion of prices/values of used gear in any case.

Edited by earleygallery

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18 hours ago, Atriya said:

Also, it is obvious that upgrading my Q to any other camera will not by itself improve my photography. That is obviously not the reason I choose to upgrade my photography gear.

Although upgrading to another camera can increase options and  may be ‘improve‘ your photography your question is focused on the economic implications of value retention. 

There is no set formula but may be this might help.

Factor in a 25% depreciation every year and increase that to 35% if an updated model is introduced. These percentages are based on residue value. (So you are depreciating 25% or 75% for the second year etc) Also factor in the depreciation of money over time to give you real terms value comparisons as well as the  possible increase cost of the q3/q4. Be aware in changing circumstances which may impact on affordability - so introduce your own sensitivity factor. Consider the possibility the Q may increase  in value because it is the first of the generation which may  become a collectible thus not following the standard depreciation rules if the q3/4/5 are introduced.  With the above and factoring your specific sensitivity factors you should be able to produce a simple spreadsheet showing the high, middle and low pricing scenarios which will determine the best....lease expensive guesstimate ....for you to consider.

Overall, as you consider upgrading would not effect your photography,  I would suggest from a financial perspective you stick with the Q. Digital cameras aren’t yet established investment vehicles  as they are simply part of the cost associated with the enjoyment of photography or a means of earning a living. Your question revolves around mitigating loss excluding personal enjoyment or professional need.  Changing digital  cameras simply for economic reasons  would only be increasing your losses.

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Firstly, welcome to the forum.

I can appreciate the logic of your question.

Sometimes it makes sense to move forward with technology, so that you can build value in incremental steps, rather than take a big hit once the new technology arrives.

I think the problem at the moment would be that you would be upgrading to a camera which is trading at a premium, so at the top of its cost curve and then upgrading again across what might be a similar margin.

The price of the Q1 will obviously settle to a consistent value and can (as in the case of the M8 / M9 series cameras) begin to increase in value again; whether it might have been worthwhile to bridge will depend on how desirable a Q3 might be compared to the Q2

In reality no-one can put numbers on this, as it involves speculating on demand - the Q1 is likely to remain a popular camera for a long time and not everyone needs more than 24 megapixels, unless they are printing regularly, so I think that it might be too early to bridge and pay a premium price to do so - I think the effect of demand and value will become more obvious with time and the decision become clearer.

The question also depends on a Q3 being produced, which is by no means guaranteed.

Consequently on purely financial grounds I would wait a little longer and see where the market winds blow; if however you might enjoy 48 megapixels, want to print or crop to a higher level of detail regularly and don't mind what might be slightly inferior high ISO performance because you are not, for instance, doing street photography at night then a Q2 might be worth considering.  It's worth remembering that 48 megapixels uses a lot of computer power and images are slower to handle, so changing your workfow or computer might also be necessary.

For me the best reason for upgrading would be that I want the specific features of the new camera and would enjoy using them.

Otherwise maybe wait right now, as it's too early to call on a value basis and enjoy a superb camera and all it has to offer.

As said at the beginning, welcome to the forum - please don't be put of by some of the answers - all of the members here are true enthusiasts and are completely generous in sharing their experience and knowledge about photography at every level from amateur to art house professional.

We'll look forward to seeing your pictures.

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16 hours ago, robert_parker said:

Firstly, welcome to the forum.

I can appreciate the logic of your question.

Sometimes it makes sense to move forward with technology, so that you can build value in incremental steps, rather than take a big hit once the new technology arrives.

I think the problem at the moment would be that you would be upgrading to a camera which is trading at a premium, so at the top of its cost curve and then upgrading again across what might be a similar margin.

The price of the Q1 will obviously settle to a consistent value and can (as in the case of the M8 / M9 series cameras) begin to increase in value again; whether it might have been worthwhile to bridge will depend on how desirable a Q3 might be compared to the Q2

In reality no-one can put numbers on this, as it involves speculating on demand - the Q1 is likely to remain a popular camera for a long time and not everyone needs more than 24 megapixels, unless they are printing regularly, so I think that it might be too early to bridge and pay a premium price to do so - I think the effect of demand and value will become more obvious with time and the decision become clearer.

The question also depends on a Q3 being produced, which is by no means guaranteed.

Consequently on purely financial grounds I would wait a little longer and see where the market winds blow; if however you might enjoy 48 megapixels, want to print or crop to a higher level of detail regularly and don't mind what might be slightly inferior high ISO performance because you are not, for instance, doing street photography at night then a Q2 might be worth considering.  It's worth remembering that 48 megapixels uses a lot of computer power and images are slower to handle, so changing your workfow or computer might also be necessary.

For me the best reason for upgrading would be that I want the specific features of the new camera and would enjoy using them.

Otherwise maybe wait right now, as it's too early to call on a value basis and enjoy a superb camera and all it has to offer.

As said at the beginning, welcome to the forum - please don't be put of by some of the answers - all of the members here are true enthusiasts and are completely generous in sharing their experience and knowledge about photography at every level from amateur to art house professional.

We'll look forward to seeing your pictures.

Thank you for the welcome, and for your excellent reply!

It seems the consistent value that the Q1 will settle to is not expected to be terribly low (like $500 or something). With that assumption, it certainly makes sense to hold onto it, as I'd much rather have maybe a bit better low-light performance than pixels I don't really need.

Thanks again!

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Leica and economy have never been compatible topics. If economy issue bothers you, also looking into Nikon and Canon.

if you are using Leica to make money, the equation should be dominated by how much difference you can earn, not the depreciations. 

If you are using Leica for fun, only you yourself know how much it worth to have Q2 now.

If you are more of a Leica collector, then the answer is clear, get Q2 now and forget Q3, till Q3 is real. .

 

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On 8/3/2020 at 6:39 AM, jaapv said:

Well even the Digilux2 holds its value better than the Panasonic equivalent and M8 still holds a reasonable value. 

Just yesterday someone beat me on eBay bidding for a Digilux 2, the lucky winner took it home for 500 USD.

Edited by rivi1969

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