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This Anti-ISIS prayer rally has paid off!


A miller

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Another one from the rally.  This appears to be a "Shia horse"

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Am 28.3.2019 um 08:48 schrieb A miller:

Par for the course for that part of the world.  It’s kind of like their WWII.  Really sad but one must be optimistic and hope there is a silver lining.

Unfortunately there is no marshallplan and no democratization in sight...

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33 minutes ago, verwackelt said:

Unfortunately there is no marshallplan and no democratization in sight...

Democratization would be very good.  It's the one positive outcome of the Iraq military operation.  Rome isn't built in a day but over the decades we will start to see the light and it will happen.   

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  • 6 months later...

yes, although I think the broader strategy (including what will be done with the oil fields), will prove very successful as well in the long run.  But that is way off this topic and pure editorial not meant to elicit discussion (here).

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Right but i think that with Putin, Erdogan and Assad the people living there will not be transferred in a democratic society neither will take part in the wealth that the oil could bring them.
I'm afraid that it will remain as it is for the population. Especially the Kurds, who were betrayed from the west and were used as cannon fodder against the Daesh, will once again left in a desperate situation.

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9 hours ago, A miller said:

Once again, the prayers have paid off, as well as the immense capability of the US military and police machine!   👏👏👏

Amen. 👏

7 hours ago, verwackelt said:

Especially the Kurds, who were betrayed from the west and were used as cannon fodder against the Daesh, will once again left in a desperate situation.

Ugh. Too much CNN. 

99.8% of people living in that area are in a desperate situation and have been so for many generations. NOT JUST THE KURDS. I'm not saying we shouldn't do something to help (which we have for a very long time) but you are incorrectly insinuating that it is the USAs fault they are in this position and that we aren't helping them. 

 

 

 

Edited by dkmoore
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1 hour ago, dkmoore said:

Amen. 👏

Ugh. Too much CNN. 

99.8% of people living in that area are in a desperate situation and have been so for many generations. NOT JUST THE KURDS. I'm not saying we shouldn't do something to help (which we have for a very long time) but you are incorrectly insinuating that it is the USAs fault they are in this position and that we aren't helping them. 

 

 

 

👌

I am encouraged by the strategy for the oil.  Seems like for once we have the right mindset.  

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9 hours ago, A miller said:

👌

I am encouraged by the strategy for the oil.  Seems like for once we have the right mindset.  

Hopefully they (US/Trump) can get Exxon or another major oil company on board. A lot of risk for those companies but could be positive for Syrians, Kurds, etc. 

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vor 19 Stunden schrieb dkmoore:

Ugh. Too much CNN. 

99.8% of people living in that area are in a desperate situation and have been so for many generations. NOT JUST THE KURDS. I'm not saying we shouldn't do something to help (which we have for a very long time) but you are incorrectly insinuating that it is the USAs fault they are in this position and that we aren't helping them. 

 

 

 

No, i did not say that only the Kurds and did not say only the USA. But especially the Kurds were abused to fight against the Daesh and were then betrayed by the west.
West means USA and EU. All western democraties supported the dictators of the middle east for decades and did never care about the situation of the majority of the population and human rights in that countries.

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6 hours ago, verwackelt said:

No, i did not say that only the Kurds and did not say only the USA. But especially the Kurds were abused to fight against the Daesh and were then betrayed by the west.
West means USA and EU. All western democraties supported the dictators of the middle east for decades and did never care about the situation of the majority of the population and human rights in that countries.

I totally hear you.  It is very complicated.  We just learned today that the Syrian Kurdish military leader, General Mazloum Abd, obtained the whereabouts of Baghdadi this past May through one of their informants and shared everything they knew with the US.  And this led to further intelligence actions and ultimately led to the successful raid.  

That's a great thing the Kurds did.  And they deserve a lot of credit and respect.  

BUT:

1.  ISIS was on their land - not ours.

2.  They hate ISIS more than we do.

3.  They want them destroyed more than we do.

4.  Our partnership was therefore a partnership underpinned by mutual interests.   We have the big guns and deep pockets.

5.  We each benefitted by the outcome, and arguably they did much more so.

6.  They have been embroiled in a decades (or longer) feud with Turkey and this is something that seems impossible to sort out and get too invested in.

So does this mean that we need to protect the Kurds forever?  On the one hand, this doesn't make much sense.  Recent wars have proven to be a huge drain on our economy.  $40B per month was felt in the pockets of every American during the Iraq war.  It seems perfectly reasonable to me to rethink the strategy.

On the other hand, as you say, the Europeans (largely) carved up the middle east many years ago.  So perhaps an argument could be made that they should work together to carve out some land that the Kurds can call home and carry out their right of self-determination.  

Not really sure how this plays out.  But in the meantime I think the US is doing the Kurds a huge favor by protecting their oil fields, which US leadership has acknowledged will someday largely belong to the Kurds (with hopefully a "most favored nations status" afford to US energy companies), which will -if they play their cards right - translate into immense wealth for the Kurdish people.

Interesting times to be a back-seat general and diplomat!! :)    

Edited by A miller
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1 hour ago, dkmoore said:

Well summarized.

I am sure someone will claim there was a quid pro quo involved for getting Baghdadi's underwear. (Couldn’t resist.)

Very funny - love it!  I  sure that you are right 😉

“What role did RUSSIA play in the operation?” - Al Sharpton 😂😂😂

Edited by A miller
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As someone who has spent most of his working life in the oil/gas fields of the World, I would (subjectively) say that there is usually very little transference of wealth to the local communities, whether through the competitive need for relative profit by Oilco’s (they are not charities), federal resource control (Nations tend to assume ownership of resources over regional / geographical ownership, and then tend to spend acquired revenue according to their wants), or straight out greed and corruption, often exacerbated through family / favoured individuals and licensing restrictions.

This is further impacted by (i) the commoditisation of non-conventionals, making for relatively low returns currently (making capital investments difficult to pass through budget rounds) and, (ii) the large turning-away from hydrocarbons of many investment funds towards greener targets.

I have recently returned from 2 highly hydrocarbon-dependent economies, where the Govt’s are having to change their legislated positions on foreign investment in order to try to attract Oilco’s (and their investors) back into well-known, producing fields, with large, high quality infrastructure already existing (ie brownfield enhancement of existing production, which has relatively low capital requirement and fairly fast and known ROI).

it may be unnecessarily pessimistic of me, but I doubt if the traditional landholders of the Kurdish region will see much, other than token gestures, in return for the resource that lies beneath.

Edited by EoinC
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