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I am surprised by this recent interview regarding the sales of the S2.

 

"There are no industry-wide figures, but we think the core medium format market is roughly 6000 units per year – worldwide, for all brands. We are not yet the market leader (I estimate Phase One to have 40-45% market share), but we already have 20% share – and this is only after 3 years after introduction

 

Leica is Reinventing the Medium-Format

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Yes, Leica do seem to have done quite well with those sales figures (presumably we can assume annual sales of roughly 1,200 units). That said, there has been quite a bit of discounting since introduction and it has been possible recently to acquire an ex-demo (probably new by any other name) S2 body for £7,995 (<50% of the original new RRP). Now that a digital M costs £5,100 and a Noctilux is £8,000 RRP (latest May 1st price rise), the prices for the S system no longer seem particularly exorbitant.

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I have also been surprised by the deep discounting of NOS S2 and S2-P cameras, some, as Ian pointed out, at less than 50% MSRP. The ones I have seen and been offered were not demo cameras, but brand new. These cameras seem to have been around for a while, which leads me to wonder about the future of the new S. With discounts like these, and used S2s being sold for under £6,500 it seems the demand for Leica's flagship camera may not be all that was hoped for.

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Whilst there are cogent arguments in favour of medium format, however you define that these days, the Nikon D800E has made an huge impact in that market. There are many specialist applications which are met by well established MF systems. The time it has taken Leica to produce a range of glass and the lack of support, in particular rental where you can rent digital Hasselblad for example in virtually any centre worldwide, has hampered take up. The combination of a small specialist market and FX stepping up its game has almost "killed" the S series. Many of those bodies "sold" are stock and demos around the "boutiques" and not in real life sold. I am told some stores have 3 x Leica S series in stock, factory sold retail on the shelf.

 

As a pro you need a back-up and rental availability is a big deal as is picking up a "cheap" S/H body for a digital back both not covered by Leica.

 

It was an heroic and bold step to launch the S and indeed the lenses alone are the strongest argument for it. I will be sad if it goes but pricing in that market is not as bullet proof as the M market and the S/H market speaks loudly. Also consider though the price drops seen in Phase One backs on the secondary market and Hasselblads as well and you will note the drop is in the same range. The S/H market has been manipulated by both Phase and Hasselblad by "upgrades" and "trade ins" taking the "old" stock off the market , Phase has re-sold some as refurbished but the black hole into which the Hasselblads fall is like the real ones, the gravity effect is so enormous no light escapes.

 

Those figures, 6,000, are speculative and other sources have estimated just over twice that giving Leica 10% if the sales % in their estimate is used. From a standing start it is impressive but as the sensor technology moves on so must the models and the research cost has to be met. Was it a wise move, time alone will tell, but despite that sound economic argument (against the M240) how often in the forums, and it is hard to find a more biased, in a good way, group of photographers do you find that argument?

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