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What effect will the 50/2 APO have on prices for second-hand 50 Summilux Asph?


philipus

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I wouldn't sell my 50 Lux ASPH to get the 50 Cron APO.

From what I've seen they render completely differently. And from all the comparisons that has been done I always prefer the rendering of the Summilux at the same f-stop.

I feel that my 50 Lux ASPH is like two lenses as well. The difference from how it draws are huge between 1.4 and 2.0 for example. It's like two different lenses in my view.

 

I also have about $1500 USD invested in 46mm filters that fits my 50 Lux ASPH and 35 Lux FLE as well as the Zeiss Biogon 2.8/21 ZM T* that I am planning to purchase. All of them use 46mm filter threads which are very convenient with all the different filters I use from time to time.

 

So basically I can't see that the APO Cron would have any influence on the second hand Summilux market.

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No effect I think : people who buy the Cron AA don't need to finance it :p (and even more with tha sale of a superb lens which, anyway, has one plus). The same UN-happened with the intro of the new Noctilux (and it could, in theory, had a bit more sense).

I don't expect a flood in the market of Summiluxes 50 asph, though I'd like a lot a lowering of its prices... :o (not having one...)

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I think everyone above has responded logically from the perspective of experienced and knowledgable Leica users. These are two wholly different lenses, capable of two different looks, and conceived for very different uses.

 

But since the intro of the M9 there have been so many people new to the Leica world that don't have an interest in learning or understanding, preferring to put their trust in the salesperson to tell them what is "best"...and optically the lux asph was formerly the best 50, now it is the AA. Those that are new to the system (with lots of spending money) and those that enjoy "upgrading" will likely opt for the AA, slowing the demand for the lux.

 

The introduction of the AA also comes at a time where production seems to really have increased (with the move back to Wetzlar). All lenses are available new right now at various US dealers (even the Noctilux and the 35 lux), so the prices for all used lenses will probably never be what they where 2 years ago-- when most, easily sold for over the retail price.

 

I think those are are the two factors that will lower the used lux prices;

 

the logical one: increased availability of new copies at dealers

the illogical one: introduction of the AA 50

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Hi Philip, I don't think that there will be any significant effect. The new lens is in any case in very limited quantities, so few are likely to even see one. Not that there is an over supply of the Summilux ;)

I guess the parallel is whether you think that the latest Noctilux affected Summilux values?

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I don't think they are making lenses at Wetzlar yet, the building is still going up. It's certainly true the supply situation has improved and I do wonder whether lens sales have stalled while people wait for the new body; maybe the economy is having an effect. Maybe the market is saturating too.

 

As regards secondhand Summilux prices, many buying the 50AA will already have the Summilux. Some may sell their Summilux, others will keep them. As one such who is keeping his Summiluxes, the benefit of the extra performance from the AA does not out-weigh the loss of the extra stop.

 

I think the supply of used lenses will increase marginally at best and that secondhand prices will remain strong. The Summilux will be recognised for the bargain it is, which the 50 AA is not.

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Keep in mind that two factors will affect the supply demand balance for all Leica M glass.

 

1. The new M body which should hopefully start to arrive over the next few months . What percent of these will go to owners that are new to the M ? Who will buy the M9 s and M8 s that are sold for the upgrade to the new M . If Leica produces at the 1500 unit per month level ...we might see the demand of 2000 new M users per month . This is what happened with the M9 . (Use any numbers on production and the % of new M users and you still get at least 1000 new M owners per month ).

 

What is it now ? Some gains from sales of M9 s in anticipation and some ME sales .

 

No way I can see anything less than a doubling of current demand for M lenses in 6 months .

 

2. The new Wetzler plant start up will suck capacity out of every department . They will lose 90 days of production capacity ..maybe in phases ...but there is no evidence that the move will be seamless. This is difficult for companies that do it frequently and have the experience .

 

Reasonable expectations would be a period of explosive demand followed by limited production . Check back in July and see if this forecast is right . Prices are going up .

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Roger- Well said and well thought out.

 

In a recent video I saw with Kaufman, he mentioned they plan to complete the new plant around end of this year. So that means the move will not be completed for many months afterward. Then there is the personnel situation. If they ramp up production with too many new employees to the lens construction side of the business, not only will warranty issues increase, but negative word will spread like wildfire.

 

For me I want to purchase all new lenses before that transition period begins and for a couple of years afterwards I will only buy pre-2014 lenses M or R.

 

See my PM.

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This is what I expect:

 

Prices for new Summilux 50s will rise over time, pulling used prices up. Strong demand will reinforce this.

 

Any small negative effect the introduction of the APO may have will be insignificant and completely eclipsed by the much stronger upward trend.

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Once the new M will hit the market, the demand/availability will change the prices. As Roger said, I also think prices are going up..

 

I for myself just got the 35mm Summilux FLE now and I think it will not become cheaper or more easy in the next months to get this fantastic piece

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