msbel Posted October 22, 2012 Share #1  Posted October 22, 2012 Advertisement (gone after registration) The next perfect storm to blast Leica glass prices out of the stratosphere once and for all...  Digital M - new to M pros will buy the glass and write it off, amateurs/celebrities will buy it anyway  Monochrom - lenses for b&w prowess (most Leica glass) driving demand (e.g. 35mm Summicron v.1 - already ridiculous - and the 35 Lux fle - forget it - I think this lens is going to go $7K+ pretty soon)  M9 prices dropping like bricks - guilty as charged  M8 never been this affordable  2nd hand M film body market remains steady as always  Mirrorless ILC system adapters all over the place and growing (Fuji/NEX/Oly..)  Three areas of relief..  1 - Zeiss and CV make decent M glass (note: no red dot)  2 - Hopefully a crop of Leica glass not in the frenzied stampede flies under the radar  3 - Take one body and one or two lenses and go shoot. Forever. Master them.  Any other ideas to whether the storm?? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Advertisement Posted October 22, 2012 Posted October 22, 2012 Hi msbel, Take a look here The next perfect storm of Leica glass prices. I'm sure you'll find what you were looking for!
lm_user Posted October 23, 2012 Share #2 Â Posted October 23, 2012 Keep the lenses I have and use them? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tobey bilek Posted October 23, 2012 Share #3 Â Posted October 23, 2012 The weakest Leica lenses I have are fine on my M9. Rigid Summicron is particularly nice. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaques Posted October 23, 2012 Share #4 Â Posted October 23, 2012 I see this scenario as plausible. M9 added some 50,000 or M cameras to the mix- would it be too optimistic for Leica to assume M will add another 75,000? and as you say there are many non Leica camera users using these lenses on non-m cameras. Â there is only so much vintage Leica glass out there. Quite a lot admittedly- but one wonders how many are disappearing into collector vaults every week? Â The price of new Leica glass is very high. I don't think I am the only M9 user out there who has never purchased a new lens- spoilt as I am with choice on the used market... I would rather buy three classic lenses than one new one. Â a friend of mine who is a documentary film maker said he thought quality vintage lenses will be worth a small fortune in 10 years- as more and more camera lenses are being used for film/video production- and film makers look for lenses with unique/unusual characteristics... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
msbel Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share #5 Â Posted October 23, 2012 I see this scenario as plausible. M9 added some 50,000 or M cameras to the mix- would it be too optimistic for Leica to assume M will add another 75,000? and as you say there are many non Leica camera users using these lenses on non-m cameras. Â there is only so much vintage Leica glass out there. Quite a lot admittedly- but one wonders how many are disappearing into collector vaults every week? Â The price of new Leica glass is very high. I don't think I am the only M9 user out there who has never purchased a new lens- spoilt as I am with choice on the used market... I would rather buy three classic lenses than one new one. Â a friend of mine who is a documentary film maker said he thought quality vintage lenses will be worth a small fortune in 10 years- as more and more camera lenses are being used for film/video production- and film makers look for lenses with unique/unusual characteristics... Â Â Totally agree. There is a finite pool of vintage glass. I see people posting they have the same lens in black, chrome, pink, and one that glows in the dark. ??? Â The only saving grace may be that as new product is released, people seem to sell the one thing they should not - the glass. Â Interesting on the video part. Did not think about that. Makes sense though, especially in light that the new M shoots video. All it will take is one post of a video shot well with the M and a vintage lens on a Leica blog, and they will be a stampede to buy it. Could be a $300 tele-elmarit that will go for $2000 in 6-months. Â Where is my checkbook? Time to buy futures. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
250swb Posted October 23, 2012 Share #6 Â Posted October 23, 2012 What is 'Leica glass'? Can you buy it on its own without it being a lens? Â Steve 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wattsy Posted October 23, 2012 Share #7  Posted October 23, 2012 (edited) Advertisement (gone after registration) The next perfect storm to blast Leica glass prices out of the stratosphere once and for all... Digital M - new to M pros will buy the glass and write it off, amateurs/celebrities will buy it anyway  Monochrom - lenses for b&w prowess (most Leica glass) driving demand (e.g. 35mm Summicron v.1 - already ridiculous - and the 35 Lux fle - forget it - I think this lens is going to go $7K+ pretty soon)  I doubt it. Leica have increased production substantially since the last 'bubble' (Summer 2011). I don't think the M240 will bring in anything like as many new entrants to the system as the M9 appeared to do nor do I don't think many Monochrom buyers lack lenses to put on it. The 35 FLE is quite easy to obtain nowadays (as is the F0.95 Noctilux) and I have seen mint looking examples sell for 90% of new price. If you think it'll soon be $7k you are welcome to buy mine for $6k. The only item that I suspect will be hawked around above list for a few months is the new 50 APO. Edited October 23, 2012 by wattsy 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roydonian Posted October 23, 2012 Share #8 Â Posted October 23, 2012 During the recent outing in the Clerkenwell area of London, Ivor from Red Dot said that the number of orders he'd received for the new M was well ahead of those placed when the M8 and M9 were launched. Â Best regards, Â Doug Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest borge Posted October 23, 2012 Share #9 Â Posted October 23, 2012 My local camera store here has like 5-6 35mm FLE Lux's in stock, as well as 4 50mm Lux ASPH's as well. Â They also had a MM in stock which was not reserved. Â So... Not worried about shortage, even though i have the 50 Lux ASPH myself, but I am considering the 35 FLE in the future. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wattsy Posted October 23, 2012 Share #10  Posted October 23, 2012 Ivor from Red Dot said that the number of orders he'd received for the new M was well ahead of those placed when the M8 and M9 were launched.  Yes, but how many of those orders are from people new to the system or without M lenses? That said, it's an interesting anecdote – I wouldn't have guessed there was so much interest in the new M (my judgement in these matters is clearly skewed by my own lack of interest in the new product). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
earleygallery Posted October 23, 2012 Share #11 Â Posted October 23, 2012 The M9 made an impact on lens availability and prices of s/h lenses due to the number of 'new to Leica' customers. Â The M could well appeal to a broader market due to the added features of live view etc., which will mean another glut of new owners who will of course need lenses for their cameras. Â I'm sure Leica have already considered this point. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravastar Posted October 23, 2012 Share #12  Posted October 23, 2012 During the recent outing in the Clerkenwell area of London, Ivor from Red Dot said that the number of orders he'd received for the new M was well ahead of those placed when the M8 and M9 were launched. Best regards,  Doug Yes, I've had a very similar comment from another well known London dealer, and that was only a few days after the photokina announcement - I was very suprised at the number of orders placed.  Bob. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
earleygallery Posted October 23, 2012 Share #13  Posted October 23, 2012 Yes, I've had a very similar comment from another well known London dealer, and that was only a few days after the photokina announcement - I was very suprised at the number of orders placed. Bob.  We know that impatient sorts will place multiple orders with many dealers in the hope of being the first kid with the new toy! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravastar Posted October 23, 2012 Share #14 Â Posted October 23, 2012 We know that impatient sorts will place multiple orders with many dealers in the hope of being the first kid with the new toy! I thought that deposits went a long way to preventing this? Â Â Bob. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
earleygallery Posted October 23, 2012 Share #15  Posted October 23, 2012 I thought that deposits went a long way to preventing this?  Bob.  Many dealers don't ask for deposits. I would never pay a deposit for something that should be a regular stock item. Witness the person who paid Jacobs Cameras in full for his Noctilux lens and then had a fight to get his money back when they went into administration! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
UliWer Posted October 23, 2012 Share #16  Posted October 23, 2012 The next perfect storm to blast Leica glass prices out of the stratosphere once and for all...  If I wanted to sell some lenses now, I'd say the same - perhaps with other words, but with the same message: "Buy now (from me...) before you won't be able to afford it."  For non-sellers the world might look less stratospherical. Of cause we'll see further increases of prices in future - like we always saw them. The lens which has been sought for the most in recent years (50 lux asph) has had only "modest" price increases since it came out first, while the lens with biggest increase during the same time was the 4/90 Macro-Elmar:confused:  Leicas reasons for prices have always sidestepped the laws of demand and offer. Even during times when they sold much less than now, they didn't lower prices but increased them constantly and the last two years have seen many instances from the "grey" second-hand market demanding higher prices than for new.  When they introduced the new 50mm Summicron Apo.Asph I got suspicious that this would be the start of a new policy to rise the price level into the "stratosphere". So I asked at the Photokina meeting. The answer was clear: the Summicron AA will stay an exception.  So all we can say about the future, is they will go on making lenses on different price levels (expensive: Summarits; very expensive: Summicrons; extremeley expensive: Summiluxes and "stratospherical": 50AA and Noctilux) as before and the prices will rise continously as before. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill W Posted October 26, 2012 Share #17 Â Posted October 26, 2012 Many dealers don't ask for deposits. I would never pay a deposit for something that should be a regular stock item. Witness the person who paid Jacobs Cameras in full for his Noctilux lens and then had a fight to get his money back when they went into administration! I will not deal with a dealer that requires a deposit. There are a lot of dealers that do not require one. I also do not go around and get on erveryones list trying to reduce my odds. If you deal with the same folks enough, they will call you as ask it you want on their list for that hard to get item. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Freeman Photography Posted October 26, 2012 Share #18 Â Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think these days you can buy a modern digital camera and expect it to be worth anything in the future..you've just got to get as much enjoyment out of it as you can. Â I bought my m9p 3 months ago, but bought a canon 1dx recently, I don't expect that camera to be worth much in say 5 years, as the work it allows me to do will pay for itself. Â Lenses are a different story, I sold my Canon 300 2.8 IS Lens to fund my M9P and I got almost what I paid for it 6 years ago, cause it was in mint condition and well looked after, the lens paid for itself during that period with sports commissions , the guy who bought it is now using it to take photo's of old warplanes ...horses for courses.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
billo101 Posted October 26, 2012 Share #19 Â Posted October 26, 2012 I have two glasses and I am very happy so I do not want other M lens. Are also rising prices of R-lens (for M240?) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaapv Posted October 27, 2012 Share #20  Posted October 27, 2012 (edited) Yes, I've had a very similar comment from another well known London dealer, and that was only a few days after the photokina announcement - I was very suprised at the number of orders placed. Bob. Why should you be surprised? The M8 and M9 models outstripped all expectations - and this camera ticks many boxes with users that were interested in Leica before but were not up to the full Leica RF limitations - say the Digiloyds of this world. And the sensor sounds highly interesting. I predict it will sell like hot cross buns. Edited October 27, 2012 by jaapv Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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