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Film sales now 1/50th what they were in 2000


andybarton

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"As people's film cameras break down, rather than purchasing another one, they move to digital," he says.

 

Indeed, we all bin our M2's and MP's when they need a service and buy a Samsung digicam from the petrol station instead.

 

Article is the typical ill informed stuff we've read a thousand times before. They're just looking at US still camera film sales, and not looking at the bigger picture.

 

I've either got my head in the sand, or I'm living in a fantasy world where I can still use film without any major problems, damn I can even walk into a shop and buy 127 film off the shelf. Perhaps I'll wake up tomorrow and it'll all have been a silver halide dream!

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"As people's film cameras break down, rather than purchasing another one, they move to digital," he says.

 

Indeed, we all bin our M2's and MP's when they need a service and buy a Samsung digicam from the petrol station instead.

 

An M user may not, but for the non enthusiast market I think it's pretty well valid.

 

You can now but an R8 from a dealer for just over 300 GBP. I thought I had a bargain a few years ago when I bought one for 500. Most people have no interest in film these days. And no, I'm not saying film is going to disappear, but let's not pretend the general public have any interest. They don't.

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Being picky, I'd say the information cited shows film sales in the USA are 1/50th what they were. If film users, as stated, tend to be poorer or older, that could cut both ways. Most of the world is demographically both poorer and younger than the US.

 

But I suspect the global figures would not be significantly different, even if they come out 1/40th or 1/60th the 2000 numbers.

 

Over the past decade or so, I've tried numerous times to find year-by-year film sales statistics (units, not money) going back to 1920 or so. I'd love to have an idea of what production levels have been viable in the past. Maybe I should track down one of the researchers in the article and email them to see if they know where to find that info.

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An M user may not, but for the non enthusiast market I think it's pretty well valid.

 

You can now but an R8 from a dealer for just over 300 GBP. I thought I had a bargain a few years ago when I bought one for 500. Most people have no interest in film these days. And no, I'm not saying film is going to disappear, but let's not pretend the general public have any interest. They don't.

 

 

Steve,

 

I think the vast majority of 'happy snappers' have already moved on - digital cameras were the N01 Christmas present for a few years, not sure they still are.

 

In fact, it would be far more interesting to see a chart of worldwide digital camera sales over the last 10 years. I suspect that sales of the typical consumer P&S have plummeted over the last few years, as phone cameras have become better.

 

Who doesn't have a camera on their phone these days? Who doesn't have a mobile phone these days? Why does a happy snapper want to bother with a separate camera when they already have one that is fine for facebooking their holiday snaps?

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Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but at 20 million films and 31 million throw away cameras that looks like a multi million dollar business, halve it and its still a multi million dollar business, halve it again and its still........... I mean if Kodak doesn't want to make it somebody in China will.

 

Steve

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Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but at 20 million films and 31 million throw away cameras that looks like a multi million dollar business, halve it and its still a multi million dollar business, halve it again and its still........... I mean if Kodak doesn't want to make it somebody in China will.

 

Steve

 

And that's just US sales lets not forget! And excludes motion picture film sales.

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As the article says: "Analysts foresee Kodak offloading its still-profitable film division sometime in the next half-dozen years as it battles to complete a long and painful digital transformation."

 

See that part - where it says "still profitable". Even with the total car crash of Kodak's sensor division, film has managed to pull it through.

 

Anyway, as for me I was using exactly zero rolls of film in 2000 - and now this year I've already run through about 25 or 30. So that's errrm an INFINITE increase in film sales to me! :) Things are looking up for Kodak, after all.

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In fact, it would be far more interesting to see a chart of worldwide digital camera sales over the last 10 years. I suspect that sales of the typical consumer P&S have plummeted over the last few years, as phone cameras have become better.

 

Not sure why you think those figures would be interesting. A mobile phone camera is still a digital camera. If the trend is towards using smart phones to take photos (and why not, I use my iPhone almost as much as I do my M9) that isn't going to help film sales much.

 

Personally, I've long since cared about how much film is being used by the public at large. I can still buy it today. I will still be able to buy it tomorrow.

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"As people's film cameras break down, rather than purchasing another one, they move to digital," he says.

 

Indeed, we all bin our M2's and MP's when they need a service and buy a Samsung digicam from the petrol station instead.

 

Cute! And even true (allowing for sarcasm)!

 

But I hope you are realistic enough to understand that if every film Leica was "raptured" away tomorrow, it would rate no more than a brief (if that) in any mass news medium*. 6.9 billion of the world's 7 billion people would simply never notice or not care. (and that's being generous)

 

THAT is the big picture. Leica film users are a microscopic picture by comparison. But as others have noted, if 20 million or 5 million rolls a year can be profitable, the microcosm will survive.

 

*Well, maybe more than a brief on the hometown mittelhessen.de - Startseite

Edited by adan
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Andy, of course you're right. But I'm sure you will acknowledge that there is a significant number of film photographers in the world, far more than the linked article gives credit to.

 

Ian, I was talking about digital camera sales, ideally broken down into Pro cameras (MF digital backs etc), Prosumer DSLR's and bridge cameras, and P&S consumer cameras, and exluding phone cameras.

 

There are more mobile phones than people now, so it's safe to assume that nearly everyone has a digital phone cam. How much revenue do Nikon, Canon etc make from mobile phone sales?

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There are more mobile phones than people now, so it's safe to assume that nearly everyone has a digital phone cam. How much revenue do Nikon, Canon etc make from mobile phone sales?

 

But what does this have to do with film sales?

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But what does this have to do with film sales?

 

I think James is questioning the central premise of the article - that everyone is jettisoning their film cameras and moving to DSLRs. I'd agree with him that the vast majority of people these days aren't bothering with digital cameras, at all, and are simply using their phones instead.

This has no direct bearing on film sales, but it's a weakness in the analysis, and it's also an interesting phenomenon to watch: which will disappear first, film or DSLRs? ;)

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I think James is questioning the central premise of the article - that everyone is jettisoning their film cameras and moving to DSLRs. I'd agree with him that the vast majority of people these days aren't bothering with digital cameras, at all, and are simply using their phones instead.

This has no direct bearing on film sales, but it's a weakness in the analysis, and it's also an interesting phenomenon to watch: which will disappear first, film or DSLRs? ;)

 

Spot on. The article infers that everyone is ditching film and buying digital cameras. It's much more than that, the way people use and share images has changed dramatically. Photography as a business has also changed - people aren't buying P&S cameras and aren't popping into the high street to print off all their photos from their memory cards. Sales of digital imaging equipment and materials are also declining.

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"I think James is questioning the central premise of the article - that everyone is jettisoning their film cameras and moving to DSLRs."

 

Why would anyone think that's the central premise of the article? Quotes, please.

 

I'd say the central premise of the article is contained in the headline, and in this paragraph:

 

"For InfoTrends imaging analyst Ed Lee, film's fade-out is moving sharply into focus: 'If I extrapolate the trend for film sales and retirements of film cameras, it looks like film will be mostly gone in the U.S. by the end of the decade.' "

 

- as backed up by the numbers AndyB quoted in this thread's headline.

 

Whether cellphones are replacing discrete digital cameras, or whether Facebook is replacing 4x6 prints, are red herrings. The article is not about where photography overall is headed (nor need it be), it's about where FILM photography is headed.

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The article mentions mobile digital imaging and the trend for sharing images electronically. It's wrong to say that these points are red herrings. They are contributing factors.

 

Is there any data to show worldwide film sales, still and motion, over the last ten years, up to and including 2010? I'd be interested in that as a more reliable basis on which to make any assumptions. To extrapolate the data given in the article ignores the core base of film users and seemingly growing interest in film photography amongst younger consumers.

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Indeed, we all bin our M2's and MP's when they need a service and buy a Samsung digicam from the petrol station instead.

 

 

Well Leicas and some other cameras may be exempt. But around here the large thrift shops are full of film SLRs and other film cameras that have been donated. One store I saw had about 50. A Miranda and lens was going for $14. A Nikon FTn w/50 f2 was $75. Some days they sell everything at 25% or 50% off. The cameras seem to be piling up. I keep looking for some classic German cameras but haven't seen any yet. Camera stores I've been in have a lot of Canon and Nikon film SLRs that don't seem to sell for much.

 

I don't see how there can always be so many new models of digital cameras if they are not selling.

Edited by AlanG
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Is there any data to show worldwide film sales, still and motion, over the last ten years, up to and including 2010? I'd be interested in that as a more reliable basis on which to make any assumptions. To extrapolate the data given in the article ignores the core base of film users and seemingly growing interest in film photography amongst younger consumers.

 

You can look at the amount of silver consumed by the entire photographic industry year by year. But I don't know how you'd break it down further. Once you take out motion picture use, X rays, low end consumers, older enthusiasts, and some other specialized applications, the amount used by the "base" users (whatever that is) and younger consumers may not add up to enough to keep the industry very large in the future.

 

It eventually will come down to what is the minimum number of rolls needed to be sold each year to justify manufacturing and marketing a given emulsion. (Let alone to justify R&D for new ones.) We don't know what that number is but I bet Kodak and Fuji do.

 

The quote below is from this silver forecast:

 

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/scpt/scotiamocatta/prec/SilverForecast2010.pdf

 

Photographic demand

Use of Silver in the photographic industry peaked in 1999 at around 7,000 tonnes and in recent years has been falling at around 10% a year. However, the combination of the technological shift to digital photography and the recession saw demand for Silver from the photographic industry fall a larger 16% in 2008, to 3,500 tonnes. Silver’s use in film is expected to continue to decline, while its use in X-rays systems is holding steady. Although developed countries are rapidly transferring to digital X-rays machines, demand for traditional X-ray technology is still growing in developing countries, especially in China and India, where healthcare is expanding.

 

All in all, photographic demand is likely to continue falling and even a pick-up in economic

activity next year is unlikely to see a rebound in demand from photography. After last year’s faster drop in demand, demand this year and next are expected to continue declining at around 10 percent per year, which should free-up some 300 tonnes of Silver next year."

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