S2 to be shown in Paris 06/06

[thrid]

Originally Posted by overgaardcom

Se that 0.7 was for stills or actually used on the film camera..?

Not for production still, but actual footage. Several of the candle light scenes were shot with it.
Probably stuff like the card game with the husband of his future wife or the scenes with the farm girl and her young child.

[SJP]

see here: Barry Lyndon - Seducing Without Words - Video

[giordano]

Originally Posted by stevelap

I tend to agree with Andy, Mark. Probably more like 10,000 total, 5-7yrs production perhaps? I'm sure they'd love to sell 10K units per year but I agree, I can't see that happening in the current economic climate.

Another thread has a rough translation of Herr K's remarks. According to this he estimated the overall "MF" digital market at c. 10,000 units p.a. and said Leica was aiming for at least a 2-digit percentage share - i.e. at least 10% but not more than 99%.

[Joseph S. Wisniewski]

Originally Posted by andybarton

Stefan Daniel didn't say 10,000 per year

He said "10,000"

Big difference...

Indeed. Last year's MF market was 6,000 units. The shrinkage has been 40%/year for the last 10 years.

2008 - 6,000
2009 - 3,600
2010 - 2,160
2011 - 1,296 (all manufacturing should cease at this point)
2012 - 778
2013 - 466

14,300 units total.

[barjohn]

If any of these numbers are accurate Leica will not survive. Ten percent of 6,000 or 600 units even at $20K per unit retail (let's say $16K to Leica) or gross revenue of $9.6M cannot sustain the company since that is less than the sales increase for the rebranded Panasonics last FY (over 10M Euro). I would venture decrease in M8 sales alone are greater than that number and they won't see revenue until the first half of the year is almost gone.

[AlanG]

Originally Posted by Joseph S. Wisniewski

Indeed. Last year's MF market was 6,000 units. The shrinkage has been 40%/year for the last 10 years.

2008 - 6,000
2009 - 3,600
2010 - 2,160
2011 - 1,296 (all manufacturing should cease at this point)
2012 - 778
2013 - 466

14,300 units total.

I don't know where you get these numbers from, but if they are accurate then it is time for Leica to rush the work on a FF EVF AF system.

[AlanG]

Originally Posted by barjohn

If any of these numbers are accurate Leica will not survive. Ten percent of 6,000 or 600 units even at $20K per unit retail (let's say $16K to Leica) or gross revenue of $9.6M cannot sustain the company since that is less than the sales increase for the rebranded Panasonics last FY (over 10M Euro). I would venture decrease in M8 sales alone are greater than that number and they won't see revenue until the first half of the year is almost gone.

They'd also be selling several lenses for every S2 body.

[barjohn]

Perhaps, but at what profit level? If they are not making money on the sales it doesn't help.

[rosuna]

The size of the market (measured by the total number of units sold) depends on the medium price.

Prices are falling, and the market size will increase.

Phase One and Hasselblad are reducing price looking for this "elasticty" effect (they think the price elasticity of the MF demand is larger than one, elastic demand). Lower prices, larger income.

Leica can play that game too... but the price is the key variable, even more if you consider future Canon "pro" models...

[Alain2x]

So ?

S2 has been presented at Albert Kahn

I've been there

The camera was very operational, and most interesting.
No other lens was there, only mockups, sorry.

Dimensions, feeling of the camera is perfect, single hand operation looks very comfortable.

No files recorded, next time, for sure.

[carstenw]

Originally Posted by Joseph S. Wisniewski

Indeed. Last year's MF market was 6,000 units. The shrinkage has been 40%/year for the last 10 years.

2008 - 6,000
2009 - 3,600
2010 - 2,160
2011 - 1,296 (all manufacturing should cease at this point)
2012 - 778
2013 - 466

14,300 units total.

Where do these numbers come from?

In any case, Leica's estimate of 10000 units per year for the total market is presumably for a market with the S2 in it! This is not a trivial difference since the S2 is a new direction. The MF market has for some years been stagnant, marked mostly by minor improvements, MP increases and the porting of features from other systems. The S2 has the potential to grow the market.

[stunsworth]

Originally Posted by Joseph S. Wisniewski

The shrinkage has been 40%/year for the last 10 years.

Err, we are talking about _digital_ bodies aren't we? If the market for digital bodies had been shrinking by 40% a year over 10 years they must have been selling an awful lot of them in 1998.

[AlanG]

Originally Posted by stunsworth

Err, we are talking about _digital_ bodies aren't we? If the market for digital bodies had been shrinking by 40% a year over 10 years they must have been selling an awful lot of them in 1998.

I think he meant MF film and digital cameras. Obviously not digital cameras only. And the economy of the past two years might have skewed MF digital figures. Besides, I don't know where one would get reliable numbers for this... but of course many MF film shooters went to DSLRs starting some time ago.

I believe that Leica can't expect the S2 to be successful only by taking away a bit of business from Hasselblad, Phase/Mamiya and.... Sinar? I think Leica is hoping to expand the market a bit, especially aiming for well heeled Leica enthusiasts (not just pros.) Although I have no idea if that is a winning strategy.