R10 RIP, but...

[ptomsu]

For me all of this is a big mess in communication - actually nothing new with Leica.

It once more underlines that my decision was right to sell all my R equipment already 2 years ago and to use other vendors FF DSLR solution.

I do not trust any longer their S System philosophy and communication.

I do not trust their M strategy any more, although I would buy an M9 once it sees the light of the market.

[tom0511]

IF this is true than I think Leica makes a big mistake.
They push a S2 system (a market with a price decrease of 40% over the last months) with a kind of small customer base.
They forget a big customer base (all those people still owning the great Leica R glass)
and sorry-who really wants to pay a lot of money for glass and then use an EFV.

Good thing I sold all my Leica R-glass and moved to Nikon for SLR things.

Bye bye Leica for SLR-stuff. too bad since the lenses are really nice.

So now my hope goes for the M9.

[SteveYork]

It sounds like Leica poured all their resources into the S2. That made sense, because they said a lot of the same "S2" technology would be used on the R10. Now that there's no R10, it sounds like they've gambled, and lost, because I don't see the market for the S2 being very big.

Why doesn't Leica market lenses in a Nikon or Canon mount?

[SteveYork]

Originally Posted by ptomsu

It once more underlines that my decision was right to sell all my R equipment already 2 years ago and to use other vendors FF DSLR solution.

That's one reason why I'm basing my SLR system for a handful of upcoming nature trips on circa. 1970's stuff. It's dirt cheap now and for my own needs it's fine.

[SteveYork]

Originally Posted by jaapv

Everybody knows by now. There will be no R10, no DSLR. Need we despair? No, there is something coming that is as good, maybe even better. A full-format EVF camera, fully compatible with R lenses, and probably with a full range of new AF lenses.
How do I know? Simple. Stephan Daniel told me (with exception of the lens bit, but that seems to be inevitable) with 100% conviction in a private converation. And no, I am not under NDA

Proving I have actually no digital knowledge, what's an full format EVF camera?

[SteveYork]

Did Leica make a mistake in developing the S2 in leu of the R10?

[luigi bertolotti]

Originally Posted by SteveYork

Did Leica make a mistake in developing the S2 in leu of the R10?

A right question, but a serious answer is impossible... S2 isn't yet in the market, so no data about its success, R10 is/was even less real... the only speculations to answer your questions are necessarly based on some important, but roughly guessed, numbers:

- Projected S2 sales in 2009-2010 ? Hereby "10.000 units" has appeared as a Leica target (I do not know if it's a real Company figure) : to me it seems a large number... but does anyone have an idea of the MF Digital market (units/year) in recent years ?

- Imagine they'd have announced and made available a "R10" (assume, FF DSLR) in the "S2" timeframe (i.e., availabilty in fall 09) : suppose they would grab 5 to 10% of the Wwide DSLR market (whose number is... I do not know)

Let's confront the above numbers, considering that, maybe, the S2 can carry a slightly bigger factory margin and we would get an answer to your question... simply an excercise... but on a choice that can draw the capability for Leica to survive as a camera manufacturer.

[hamey]

Originally Posted by SteveYork

Did Leica make a mistake in developing the S2 in leu of the R10?

Yes, big time


Very sad indeed.


Ken.

[rosuna]

Originally Posted by hamey

Yes, big time


Very sad indeed.


Ken.

No, they didn't.

The S system can be competitive against medium format platforms (Hassel, Mamiya and Pentax next year), and against professional equipment from Canon and Nikon...

The R system cannot be competitive, in prices or features, with Canon or Nikon. They have pro and prosumer full frame cameras... and the prices and features are irresistible. Look at the Canon 5D Mark II... how can Leica do something competitive against that?

Be realistic...

[rosuna]

Originally Posted by luigi bertolotti

- Projected S2 sales in 2009-2010 ? Hereby "10.000 units" has appeared as a Leica target (I do not know if it's a real Company figure) : to me it seems a large number... but does anyone have an idea of the MF Digital market (units/year) in recent years ?

What counts is not the number of units sold, but the margin, the profit per unit. How long is sustainable a system like the R... not much. Think of the competitive pressure from Canon, Nikon... The S system is more asey to defend in the long term...

The size of a market depends on prices too. Prices of MF equipment is decreasing...

[lct]

Originally Posted by rosuna

What counts is not the number of units sold, but the margin...

So Leica's expecting a significant margin on some 10,000 S2 if i understand well. As an Economist, how much would you evaluate such a margin if any? Just curious.

[R10dreamer]

With the R they had a built in customer base. With the S they have to create an all new customer base. Never heard of a business plan where you ignore your existing customer base to try and win a new customer base. Just doesn't make any sense.


GD Whalen Photography

[Simon Harris]

I tried a G1, wanting something between my D700 and D-Lux4 but the viewfinder hurt my eyes! Nothing can compare to either a rangefinder or optical TTL viewfinder IMHO.

Simon

[wattsy]

Originally Posted by R10dreamer

With the R they had a built in customer base. With the S they have to create an all new customer base. Never heard of a business plan where you ignore your existing customer base to try and win a new customer base. Just doesn't make any sense.

Maybe Leica did a bit of market research and concluded that the existing R customer base is simply not large enough to make developing a new digital R body a profitable enterprise? Perhaps they have finally learnt the lesson from the R8 debacle of the 1990s (lovely camera that cost Leica AG dear).

[johnastovall]

I just don't understand why Leica can not release this sort of information in a professional manner. They should have had hand out and a webpage ready to go up the minute the meeting was over. I go and check Leica U.S.A.'s web "News" and learn Leica has opened a store in Moscow.

[luigi bertolotti]

Originally Posted by wattsy

Maybe Leica did a bit of market research and concluded that the existing R customer base is simply not large enough to make developing a new digital R body a profitable enterprise? Perhaps they have finally learnt the lesson from the R8 debacle of the 1990s (lovely camera that cost Leica AG dear).

I should tend to endorse the above hipotesis.... too difficult and risky to pretend to grab market share from competitors, and "loyal" R customer base too thin : sum those 2 considerations and the result is that to invest into a "traditional" FF DSLR is probably not worth. In this sense I understand their pursue for S2... a market in which are present some respectable but, let me say, "thin" players (PhaseOne, Sinar....)...and probably the leader is still Hasselblad : companies that anyway are not "giants" like Canon/Nikon: your risk is relatively lower, I think : in the heated mainstream DSLR market, if you haven't success with a product (that ought to be positioned in the high range) you are probably OUT "forever" beacuse you cannot afford the next technological leap; in the MF Digital niche, even if you do not succeed to knock out, say, Hasselblad, but make a good product with some exclusive content (and S2 looks like this, on paper) you probably can stay decently afloat.

[dpattinson]

Originally Posted by SteveYork

Did Leica make a mistake in developing the S2 in leu of the R10?

Did they make any money off the R8 or R9? I don't know, but for sure they weren't 'competing' with Nikon or Canon even back in the 90's. I don't understand why they would be better placed now that they have to deal with the sensor as well. IMHO the R cameras are more of a niche market than the M. The S2 makes perfect sense to me if they manage to sell it, an R10 even if it was as good as the D3 risks becoming a very expensive mistake.

[stunsworth]

Originally Posted by dpattinson

Did they make any money off the R8 or R9?

There were tales at one time of a warehouse filled with unsold R8s. That has to be an exaggeration since they wouldn't have made enough cameras to fill a warehouse, but I think it's an indication that they spent a fortune on R&D only to see very poor sales.

In a way that's a shame because the R8 is a fabulous camera, but it probably came too late in the lifetime of non-AF SLRs.

[mjh]

Originally Posted by SteveYork

Did Leica make a mistake in developing the S2 in leu of the R10?

Admittedly I was very skeptical when I first heard about this plan, but since then, the concept has grown on me. An actual R10, i.e. a DSLR with a high degree of compatibility with existing R equipment, would face serious difficulty competing against top-of-the-line offerings from Canon or Nikon. In the areas of autofocus or internal image processing, Canon and Nikon are decades ahead, and it would be very nigh impossible to leapfrog the competition in a short timeframe.

The medium format market, on the other hand, is not only smaller; the key players in this market are much smaller, too, and developing, say, an autofocus system holding its own against a Hasselblad or Mamiya shouldn’t be that difficult. When they expect so sell 10,000 units, that’s certainly an optimistic figure that isn’t taking into account the current economic climate, but then the S2 would not only appeal to MF photographers looking for a smaller camera with better handling, but also to 35 mm photographers looking for a higher level of image quality, so if they play their cards right, they could make quite a dent in both markets.

The rationale is, I suppose, to recover some of the development costs by sales of the S2, then leverage the technology developed and the experience gained through its development by launching a successor to the R system as well as an M9, based on the same technology. Whether this will actually work out, especially considering the unfavourable economic climate, remains to be seen, but I don’t see any fundamental flaw in this idea.

[hamey]

I have made this statement several times on the Leica forum, I have no interest in what Leica
Does in the Digital world as I would not be a customer to any of their creations.

To what I take pity for is all those loyal R users who stuck by Leica, went out and bought more R equipment
as they were told by Leica Managment that an R10 will arrive some time in the future.
Obviously this was a marketing ploy by them for more time to sell out all remaining R stock.
...............................................It looks like that to me................................................ .......

I wonder if and how many R users decide to invest into Leica final Swan Song the S system.
To all those people who are contemplating it, do your homework first and be more cautious in your decision,
Leicas are not cheap other manufacturers offer better value on Digital equipment for your money.

Remember Digi cams don't hold their value, that includes Leicas.

Cheers.