(UN)OFFICIAL photokina PREDICTION THREAD

[adan]

So with 5-7 weeks to go (depending on when Leica actually makes its announcements) - here's my prediction of new products to be revealed: Note these are predictions - not necessarily what I WANT, but what I THINK Leica will actually announce, based on a host of sources, nonsources, experience with how Leica thinks, etc.

M-system

M8.2 - A few updates, including the "upgrades" previously announced: 1/4000th, quieter shutter; sapphire glass LCD cover; more accurate framelines, increase in price of about 8-10% Any M8 can be upgraded in part or in whole to 8.2 specs for prices not far off what was already announced. NO new sensor. Firmware (no cost) will allow use of SDHC cards. Note that this is why the "upgrade" was put off until after PK - so it could be coordinated with the new camera, and not interfere with M8.2 (and possible R) production needed for PK release.

16mm f/3.4 ASPH @ 60mm filter size - price between the current 21 ASPH and the WATE

18mm f/2.8 ASPH @ 55mm filter size - price between the 21 ASPH and the 16mm ASPH

18mm f/3.4 "Elmar" or "Summarit" @ 49mm filter size - price under $2000 US (but perhaps not much) - name depends on whether Leica wants "Summarit" to mean any lower-price-line lens, or wants to keep it for f/2.5 lenses specifically.

24mm Summicron-ASPH @ 55mm filter size - price 15% higher than 28 'cron ASPH

Return of separate finders in 16, 18, 21 and 24 FOV - 16mm and 18mm finders will show 2 brightlines for film and M8 framing (like the Voigtlander 28/35 finder).

Noctilux replacement likely - my betting is on 50mm rather than 35mm.

Nothing new longer than 50mm - although it would not surprise me if a 135 APO (current optics) with goggles showed up (works with the M8's 90mm framelines).

I don't expect an actual M-mount "low-price" body. It could be done (all-magnesium body instead of brass-over-mag, boxy shape, outsourced RF from the folks who make Cosina's RF units, frames limited to 28-75, other materials savings) - but I don't think it would drop the costs enough. Likely this will be a PanaLeica.

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R system - frankly I can't handicap this. No possibility would surprise me, from dropping the whole line - to a pre-announcement and roadmap for a system to be fully revealed at a later time (PMA 2009?) - to a "compact DMR" sharing the 1.33x-crop sensor of the M8 (with heavier IR filtering) - to a bigger than 24 x 36 sensor. Perhaps with focus-assist and the POTENTIAL for AF lenses with their own focus motors (no mechanical link to camera)

Lens news would obviously depend on the route the camera takes - anything from "bye-bye R" to some AF zooms.

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PanaLeicas

C-Lux 3 - easy

D-Lux 4 - also easy - we've already seen it in the Lumix version.

Digilux 4/3rds - gone - a marketing trial with unencouraging results

V-Lux - gone, I think. Sales were pretty good for the first year, better than the Digilux 3, but I think that market has tapered off.

Digilux Micro-4/3rds - probable, but I'm torn between expecting a fixed-lens Digilux 2 replacement ("24-70" f/2-2.5 effective zoom) with window viewfinder - or a camera with 3-4 interchangeable lenses covering about the same range or a bit longer, also with VF/RF viewing. Perhaps both.

[darkstar2004]

Leica discontinued the Noctilux; why would they turn right around and release a new one? Doesn't make any sense...

If they discontinued the Noctilux because they weren't selling at $5995US, how do they expect a new Noctilux to sell at $9000 to $10,000US (if that speculated price range proves to be true)?

[stunsworth]

Originally Posted by darkstar2004

Leica discontinued the Noctilux; why would they turn right around and release a new one?

In order to use aspherical glass and also release it at an easier to focus 35mm focal length.

Maybe it was just bad timing, the last batch of the current Noctilux was made just a little too early to have a seamless transition to the new lens, and it wasn't worth the cost of another run of the lens.

The Noctilux will always appeal to some because of its extreme nature, I think that's why it generates so much interest on forums.

[lct]

Originally Posted by adan

...M8.2 - A few updates, including the "upgrades" previously announced: 1/4000th, quieter shutter; sapphire glass LCD cover; more accurate framelines, increase in price of about 8-10% Any M8 can be upgraded in part or in whole to 8.2 specs for prices not far off what was already announced. NO new sensor...

Interesting that you don't list the built-il IR-cut filter. Too difficult to upgrade?

[andybarton]

Any objection if we have just ONE rumours thread?

BTW, we were told by the head of the M Division at Solms that Leica would not let the Noctilux name die along with the just discontinued model.

[veraikon]

h 5-7 weeks to go (depending on when Leica actually makes its announcements)

Probably there will be a press anouncement at Sept. 15th - the new LFI , which appears at Sept. 16th will bring the full story
The date Sept. 15th was also told in one of the various Kaufmann interviews.

[stunsworth]

I've no problem with them being merged.

Perhaps after Photokina we'll have a "See, I told you" thread.

[veraikon]

eica discontinued the Noctilux; why would they turn right around and release a new one? Doesn't make any sense...

There will be a "Noctilux" either 35mm or 50mm. The Nocti is some "prestigious object" they wont abort it . (See at VC the Nokton 1.2/35 isn´t a bestseller* even at a very low price – in my opinion it is only as a showcase for the efficiency of Voigtländer in the lens program; they won´t make to much money with it)

The "old" Noctilux had two major handicaps, first it was produced at "ElCan" Midlands, Ontario and second with some special glass. These may be the reasons for the production stop.



* there was produced two years ago a worldwide limited “(with 300 lenses) chrome” edition of the 1.2/35mm Nokton. You can buy it even today brand new from the shelf.

[rosuna]

The R goes medium format. Several new AF fixed focal lenses to start with.

The M gets minor updates and new lenses (no 16mm, forget that).

Leica could be developing a full frame M camera, for release in 2009. They can also be working on a "Micro M" camera, a cheaper M unit, for 2010 or so. People think on the CL as a model, but I think on the new Micro 4/3 system, this is, cameras without optical viewfinder or mechanical rangefinder (but using M mount).

New Panaleica compact cameras will appear this year, etc.

[veraikon]

but I think on the new Micro 4/3 system, this is, cameras without optical viewfinder or mechanical rangefinder (but using M mount).

Also my siggestion that the
CLd[igital] will be a mFT -derivate with M-mount without mechanical finder but with eVF and focus confirmation. My suggustion ist more it will come in late 2009 than 2010.
(because when Pana and Oly are selling their mFT camera in 2009 - chinese adaptors mFT-> M-mount will appear. Leica is forced to present their CLd )

[stuny]

Adan -

Don't expect any Photokina announcements in 2009. Photokina, if memory serves, is only every two yeras.

[malcolm]

Originally Posted by stuny

Adan -

Don't expect any Photokina announcements in 2009. Photokina, if memory serves, is only every two yeras.

Stuart-
Adan stated PMA 2009; not Photokina.

[Efra1]

Originally Posted by rosuna

The R goes medium format. Several new AF fixed focal lenses to start with.

Big one men, realy a big one sensor..................

[marknorton]

A 50mm f0.95 would be a trophy lens though I think it would have little to do with broadening the appeal of the M to a wider audience which requires a lower cost body. The lens will not for me, my 50/1.4 backfocusses and I'm bored with the whole focussing issue.

I think there will continue the "value" line of lenses from the 35mm f2.5 Summarit, crossing over at the 28mm f2.8 ASPH to one or more wider Elmars, 16, 18, 21, 24. Which ones, who knows, but clearly a competitor to the Zeiss 18/4 would make sense. Maybe we'll see a 16mm or 18mm Elmarit but I dont expect more than 2 or 3 lenses in this sub-28mm space. My preferred new lens would be a new 28mm Summilux and a factory upgrade of the 35mm Summilux which, in my experience, remains a problemmatic lens.

I agree with Andy, if they are going to produce lower cost wide-angle lenses, they cannot then kill the goose by requiring users to buy the Frankenfinder, so maybe these new W/As will come with an accessory dedicated finder for those who need it.

Most of all, I want an M9 with FF, a reworked viewfinder and rangefinder; variable magnification, diopter correction, focus feedback. And a decent shutter release.

I have no idea where they will go with the R. They risk breaking the company if they get it wrong and I would not like to think the M is being priced to bank-roll another flight of dSLR fancy. The Digilux 3 should have been put out of its misery before anybody managed to buy one.

I agree that we'll see a raft of new PanaLeicas to replace the existing ones which, in digital camera terms, have had a surprisingly long life.

What I'd really like is a smaller, thinner M with live-view, so no need for the expensive rangefinder/viewfinder at all, think Sigma DP-1 with M mount lenses.

[rosuna]

Originally Posted by marknorton

A 50mm f0.95 would be a trophy lens though I think it would have little to do with broadening the appeal of the M to a wider audience which requires a lower cost body. The lens will not for me, my 50/1.4 backfocusses and I'm bored with the whole focussing issue.

I have three lenses, and all of them backocused (Summilux 35mm ASPH, Noctilux and Summilux 75mm). A minor adjustment to the rangefinder corrected this problem...

I agree the M system has severe focusing problems, due to the lenses or the rangefinder (I don't know for sure), but most lenses backfocuse badly... I have two friends with M8 and several lenses... (Noctilux and APO-Summicron 90; Summilux 50, APO-Summicron 90)... and all those lenses present backfocus problems as well...

.

[marknorton]

It's certainly good if an adjustment to the camera can "fix" all three lenses but you don't really know - was the problem with the camera or the lenses?

It makes no sense at all to me to introduce an extreme lens if the focussing accuracy of the camera is not up to dealing with it. It might be the body can be adjusted to work this week, but what about next week? And what about other lenses?

I can see the posts now, "I bought the Noctilux ASPH and it back-focusses"...

I'd also argue that using lenses with an extremely shallow DoF is not one of the rangefinder camera's strengths because you cannot see that shallow DoF; I have the Nikon 50mm f1.2 (though sadly not the Noct-Nikkor) and seeing through the lens gives you a much better impression of what the image is going to look like.

[jaapv]

I think if the focus throw and with that the slope of the cam are adapted to the limitations of the M8, focussing accuracy will not be a problem. The main problem we are seeing now is that the lenses that have been designed for older cameras with the less accurate film as receptor and another rangefinder configuration are touching on the limits of the system. Lenses being designed now will certainly take that into account.
Having said that, all my lenses, including the 75 Summilux, are quite accurate on both my M8 bodies.
It may well be that older M8s need to be adjusted on the new adjustment rig Leica built a few months ago.

[jaapv]

Originally Posted by marknorton

I can see the posts now, "I bought the Noctilux ASPH and it back-focusses"...

Those posts will come anyway, irrespective of the focussing accuracy. The user is as much part of the system as the rangefinder and the lens. And a part that Leica has no control over.
I do not deny that there have been and are real problems with critical lenses. But with the confusion over the difference between backfocus and focus shift and both terms being misused and misinterpreted, undetected minor eye problems that are major when focussing, and the simple fact that looking through the viewfinder skewed will cause misfocussing, it is very hard to differentiate between hardware error and user error.

[andybarton]

Can we keep this to a rumours thread, please guys? There are plenty of other opportunities to discuss back focussing lenses on M8s.

[jaapv]

No problem, Andy. Just lift them out into a separate thread.
I hear from impeccable sources which I cannot reveal that the R10 will have 26 Mp and will be produced starting February 2009....