Leica Solution?

[rwfreund]

Well, from a business point of view, it is not likely that they are spending any money that is exclusively devoted to film. I doubt that we will see a successor film camera to the M7 or the MP.
It makes sense to continue to sell what they have already designed assuming that the tooling has been reasonably amortized, there is not much cost not covered by incremental revenues. Not that they do that much, marketing might piggyback on the digital stuff.
As far as service is concerned, it is clear that Leica intends that it be self supporting for non-warranty claims. The mechanical stuff can mostly be maintained by independent third parties such as DAG. I think that this drift is already happening. One reason that I recently picked up an MP is that it is fairly possible that the supply may be limited.
I maintain that the film camera market is not elastic, however with the shift to the "Hermes" type of image as can be sen in their new web site, they see that only the reasonably well heeled can take advantage of their product at profitable price levels. My major fear is that they go the way of Montblanc which used to make a good fountain pen but now sell an inferior product while diverting their business to jewelry, desk accessories, and leather goods.
If they retain a passion for cameras, I expect that they will be constrained to new developments in the digital realm, and since they are smallish, they are dependent on those sensor suppliers that pretty much offer camera kits, certainly they cannot commission their own other than perhaps a manufacturing variant of some off the shelf sensor. This is one reason that I suspect that IR filters are with us to stay since the filters in front of the sensor are one of only a few potential points of image quality differentiation open to them.
Recent improvements in Nikon glass, for example, has hurt the degree of IQ differentiation that Leica has enjoyed. I sincerely hope that Nikon and Canon both continue manufacturing glass with significantly worse distortion performance than the Leica primes, for if they fix their distortion problem, then those who buy for IQ will have an increasingly difficult time justifying the premium Leica pricing. That gets us back to the "Hermes" image once again.
At the end Leica is a brand, and we will see what comes of that. Remember the time that Abercrombie and Fitch used to sell high-end shotguns? Once only the brand remains, it is subject to (horrors) the whims of the marketeers and the bankers.
I wonder how much the quality problems associated with the M8 launch has cost the company, no only in terms of warranty repairs, but in terms of customer confidence, lost sales, and brand damage?
If the M8 had been introduced defect-free, I think that I would have a more positive feeling for the company over-all.
-bob

[adan]

I'll just toss in that Leica actually saw an INCREASE in film body sales with the introduction of the M8 or thereafter. (from retail business sources)

Now - that could just be people rushing to get one before they disappeared forever - or it could be a side effect of the M8 publicity - or it could be people on the fence deciding maybe Leica had a future after all - or folks who tried the M8, didn't like it (but did like the RF viewing) and swapped even.

Cosumer psychology can be weird, so I don't claim to know which - if any - of those possibilities is correct.

From a business perspective, it's fairly simple. You can't sell a product at a loss unless you are building for the future in a growing market. And film is NOT a growing market. So the moment the M7/MP can't be sold at a price that covers their cost (labor, materials, promotional expense, etc.), their time is up. Sic transit gloria and all that.

My suspicion is that Dr. Kauffmann is smart enough to read the numbers and will know and act when that time arrives.